Ruffer Investment Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 04/7/2022 09:59

Often happens people sell their best performers and take a profit, whilst hoping their dogs will get back to even someday.

Not quite what I'd do!

[lowtrawler] 04/7/2022 09:38

Rather strangely, the 3 investment trusts most investors would turn to for protection in bear markets: CGT, RICA, PNL are all sitting at historically low premiums to NAV. It suggests investor's are less risk averse now than they usually are!

[lowtrawler] 01/7/2022 10:05

The excess Premium to NAV has closed and we are now back to 3% which makes the recent price chart look awful. CGT and RICA are now both sitting at a similar premium. Message to self: Don't buy RICA at an excess price premium.

[spoole5] 25/6/2022 16:47

I believe the total return fund is also valued weekly, the diversified return fund is daily.

[apollocreed1] 23/6/2022 17:47

Am I correct in that RICA only provide their NAV once a week on Wednesday? If so, is there any other way to get an estimate of their daily NAV?

I have an idea, which is to look at the price action of the LF Ruffer Total Return fund which holds a virtually identical portfolio, but which they have to provide a daily price for.

[lowtrawler] 22/6/2022 16:08

The premium has fallen back to a more normal 4%, likely still another 1% to drop as 3% is the long-term average. It makes the recent price drop look quite painful but the NAV is only marginally reduced.

[beltd] 20/6/2022 20:12

Well let's not forget it's not just households who are propped up by low interest rates. Our government is well and truly after its Covid giveaway and previous bailouts. So for sterling's sake we are going to need higher interest rates, but govt interest debt payments are going to look eye watering. Hence the comments in the last monthly update on financial repression. Inflation is here to stay unless we get serioushttps://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/6e3b3b32-f0af-11ec-9bea-abc2bc5953e5?shareToken=c3c70b03657f4e4fad7d40e5579d32ec

[lowtrawler] 20/6/2022 14:44

Interesting that the big step change in RICA pricing happened over the same period as they had Bitcoin. There is no doubt RICA have an unconventional attitude towards asset preservation. We can only hope they are as good as they believe they are.

[beltd] 20/6/2022 09:51

I had no idea .....

[jonwig] 20/6/2022 09:39

RICA held BTC between Nov 2020 and April 2021, Made good money:



The luck was obviously in the timing!

[beltd] 20/6/2022 09:14

You've got the wrong company

[hohum1] 19/6/2022 19:48

I still can’t believe how lucky Ruffer were with their punt on Bitcoin.

[beltd] 17/6/2022 18:50

Putin timed his war to inflict max pain. I agree LowT that if the bank don't get ahead of this things could spiral, energy is a much lower proportion of the populations spend now, but add in food and things are more dramatic. There does feel like there is a lot of politicians and MPC sat on their hands hoping. I always believe you should plan and act for the worst. We seem to be planning and hoping for the best. Our friends at Ruffer seem to get it, let's hope their bets start moving the nav

[lowtrawler] 17/6/2022 16:06

I'm pleased I don't have to try and sort it.

If inflation is high and rates remain substantially lower: nobody will want to lend and liquidity / investment will dry up; people will spend and borrow rather than save / invest; the trillions injected from QE will move out of investments and into expenditure.

Inflation will feed through to higher wages creating a 1970's style vicious circle of wage inflation feeding price inflation.

As I see it, this is a belated hangover from QE and it hasn't even started yet. I don't know how high inflation is going to go but I suspect it will exceed what was seen in the 1970's - imagine having to increase pensions / benefits by 30% or more, in line with inflation! imagine workers demanding 30% plus rises to make it worthwhile working rather than going on benefits. Imagine whole industries going under where they can't pass on the necessary price increases.

Ultimately, interest rates will need to at least match inflation. It will cause huge numbers of home repossessions, high debt companies going under, and structural change unseen for generations.

[jonwig] 17/6/2022 12:57

The BoE finds it hard to fathom, the government hasn't a clue. We ordinary folk just cover our backs as best we can. (Hence RICA.)

[lowtrawler] 17/6/2022 11:14

jonwig, I believe inflation is well and truly here to stay and more likely to go parabolic than just fall back. There has been admirable pay restraint so far but I don't see that remaining in 2023. Once pay becomes the driver, interest rates will need to rise to at least match inflation.

[beltd] 17/6/2022 10:07

Yes although I read that Rica has covered the price challenges with their toolkit.... So to speak

[jonwig] 17/6/2022 08:54

Well, we clearly both hold RICA, but their index-linked gilts are causing them a worry. They don't react well to steeply rising interest rates.

Mathematically, RPI/CPI will fall next year unless inflation rises parabolically. A worldwide recession does wonders for curbing energy prices.

[beltd] 17/6/2022 08:43

I don't share that view Jonwig, 1.25% and 11% forecast inflation for this year with 2023 forecasts being upped by the day. Ruffer positioned well.

[jonwig] 17/6/2022 08:40

BELtd - the Fed has to work harder to damp down the US economy. Even with these 75 bps rises, a recession there is unlikely. The US consumer is cashed-up after Biden's bounty.

The UK is teetering on recession even without rate rises. Weak pound and indebted consumers don't help. 25 bps is probably right.

[beltd] 17/6/2022 08:30

Enjoyed reading the monthly update. We seem well positioned for the BoE inaction on inflation

[beltd] 13/6/2022 14:36

Good luck on that call. I am definitely in the capital preservation camp at present and RICA offers more than most. Whether it can grow above inflation is a big question mind you, but i am very equity averse at present. I think we will get and we need a correction, but you never know maybe our central banks will save the day. I wouldn't bet on it

[lowtrawler] 30/5/2022 14:59

RICA were certainly positioned better for coronavirus but I believe CGT are better positioned for inflation. I believe the immediate risks are inflation based and so CGT could out-perform RICA if I'm correct. I hold both.