Rsa Ins. 7te%pf Discussion Threads

[cathian] 06/3/2014 10:41

CWA1 - Many thanks for the information and Stock Exchange link which I very much appreciate. In fact, I wasn't suggesting your particular post was speculation but I was simply trying to generally ascertain whether or not anyone had seen any official confirmation that the Preference Share dividend would be paid as normal on 1st April.

[cwa1] 05/3/2014 20:09

cathian, I'm not in the habit of posting speculation but in case you don't believe me here's a fairly definitive link. See special conditions:-

[rahosi] 05/3/2014 19:39

hxxp://www.canaccordgenuity.com/en/cm/Our-Company/Fixed-Income/Fixed-Interest/
This is the best source of Preference Share info. Updated every Wednesday.

Many Prefs went XD today.

[redartbmud] 05/3/2014 19:01

Hit the ticker on Hargreaves Lansdown. It says XD Today.
No guarantee, but a good indication.

[cathian] 05/3/2014 16:40

Can anyone actually confirm that the Preference Shares are now xd? If so, has RSA made any formal announcement about payment of the Prefernce dividend due on 1st April or is previous comment simply speculation?

[cwa1] 05/3/2014 08:35

So, XD today, payday 1/4.

[quepassa] 18/12/2013 09:37

Telegraph yesterday.

Daily Mail today:-



I am personally much more aligned to these views expressed in the Daily Mail

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 17/12/2013 10:45

Well you have hit the nail on the head.

Who knows??

That is the problem in holding these now.

Too many questions up in the air.

Before they were a tuck-'em-away, go-to-sleep, collect-the-juicy-dividend type of share, now they are caught in the thick of things.

They should by their structure be safe and continue to pay out but the hassle factor now involved in keeping on top of developments at troubled RSA is significant.

We know from recent market experience that capital instruments are complicated when the going gets tough as we have seen with Bank of Ireland and Co-op.

That's why for me when they are still trading near par or even at a premium to par, there is nothing in it, in my view, to pay for the potential risk factor and hassle factor associated with such instruments in times or corporate difficulties.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[redartbmud] 17/12/2013 10:31

The ordinary shares aside, these are Cumulative Irredeemable Preference Shares.

Looking at the current situation there are a number of scenarios:
1. RSA goes bust - Unlikely?
2. Rights issue of new ords. Ordinary dividend is cut.
Will Pref Divs be suspended for a time? They accumulate until the business can afford to pay the backlog.
3. Decision to re-structure, and bondholders take a haircut.
4. Sale of part of the business to shore up the rest.
5. Break up or takeover.

The vexed question - What will happen to the Cu Irred Prefs in the above scenarios?

Answers on the back of a postage stamp please.

red

[quepassa] 17/12/2013 10:28

Whist I respect the views today of Questor in The Telegraph that RSA is a high-risk Buy,I fundamentally disagree with them.

In my view only, I think the share will fall significantly further. However, it is a question of timing and there should come a point when the shares do become attractive.



The following factors make the RSA proposition currently look unattractive to me:-

No Chief Exec.
Irish problems.
Profits warnings.
Recent downgrade.
Potential further downgrades.
Extreme weather in 2013 heavily increasing claims.
Possible rights issue.
Possible capital shortfalls.
Possible further dividend reductions


Doesn't look auspicious to me yet from a timing angle.
But an interesting stock to follow.

Good luck to All.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[hvs] 17/12/2013 09:57

Thats the best way.

Then there will be enough money for BONUSES and Issue of FREE shares.

Its run for the Board and STAFF

[quepassa] 17/12/2013 09:49

or another rights issue.

QP

[hvs] 17/12/2013 09:27

A- is correct .

And on watch.

Looks like they will sell all the profitable companies and retain the irish business
and list in Ireland.

Will be a very good takeover pospect.

[kiwi2007] 17/12/2013 09:18

"Presumably because its only an outlook downgrade and not an actual ratings downgrade...'

and that S&P's influence has waned recently...

[quepassa] 17/12/2013 08:59

No. It is an actual downgrade from A to A-.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[fangorn2] 17/12/2013 08:54

Presumably because its only an outlook downgrade and not an actual ratings downgrade...

[kiwi2007] 17/12/2013 08:37

Pity - was hoping panicking 'investors' would drive it down to a better yield.

Doesn't seem to be happening at the moment though..

[quepassa] 17/12/2013 07:02

Re posts 12 and 15.

Yesterday Standard and Poor's downgraded RSA from A to A-.

The downgrade came after market hours yesterday.

S and P gave RSA a "developing" credit watch rating which means it could downgrade RSA by up to a further 2 notches in the next 90 days.

This is the weakest since 2002 shortly before the insurer launched a £1bn deeply discounted rights issue.

Let's see how RSA fares today.

Some investors are only allowed to invest in A rated category paper or better. RSA is now getting perilously close to BBB category.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[hvs] 16/12/2013 10:16

Its them CITY Grandees , they will ensure NO DOWGRADE.

[jonwig] 16/12/2013 10:12

The FT article did spook me a bit - in worst case it's a huge loss of business. Managed to sell around the open.

[quepassa] 16/12/2013 10:04

how can you be so certain that RSA will not be downgraded?

it seems from the FT that RSA themselves are concerned about this.

nobody ever thought the USA could lose a AAA rating. history proved otherwise.

do bear in mind that the CEO just left. that is not good for confidence.

ALL IMO> DYOR.

QP

[hvs] 16/12/2013 09:53

This will not be downgraded.

The so called CIT Grandees will ensure they sell all the profit making businesses and become a highly "profitable"Irish listed insurance company.

With Grandees about no worries. Thy always have a solution like at Lloyds and
RBS after all its TAXPAYERS and SAVERS MONEY.

Tis the season to be MERRY with a FAT BONUS to boot.

[montyhedge] 16/12/2013 09:14

Funds will be forced to sell RSA bonds if downgraded.

[quepassa] 16/12/2013 06:26

I am just keep a watchful eye out that the possible downgrade by ratings agencies on RSA do not additionally impact negatively on capital values/prices of these instruments.

Market participants may also have experience of holding Bank of Ireland instruments or Co-op financial interest-bearing instruments.

The article on the front page of today's FT refers. This article is headed " RSA in urgent talks with rating agencies to avoid downgrade"

The FT article mentions that "Analysts estimate the group is facing a £500m shortfall".

In my experience capital-type instruments rarely go unscathed in the short-term when this set of circumstances coalesces.


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[jonwig] 14/12/2013 08:02

There are 125m of these prefs in issue, so a dividend payout of about £9m pa. Last year's ordinary dividend cost them £250m, so even if they slashed to ords I doubt they would interfere with the prefs payout. Especially as it's cumulative.

Strangely, it seems they can pay an ordinary div of 0.1p and suspend the prefs divi. I think this has something to do with "trustee status".