Royal Mail Share Discussion Threads

[careful] 17/9/2022 14:51

There are serous dangers in the World economy that could dwarf the crisis of 2008-9
according to some.

World debt is now well over £300 trillion.
The Worlds banker, the Fed have finally been forced by inflation to stop printing more money and to put interest rates up.

This has devastating consequences to asset prices as liquidity dries up.
and some derivatives, credit default swaps and the like are in serious trouble.

We have walked around since the financial crisis with silly grins on our faces as our house prices go ever upwards and our investments rise, even though inflation and interest rates stayed low.
The system worked out that if it pressed the right buttons and pulled the right levers, we could loaf around getting richer without working hard for it.

Maybe the good times are over, no more tricks up the bankers sleeve.

[lefrene] 17/9/2022 14:28

China seems to be causing itself deliberate economic damage, presumably for the same reason that the West is, ie to create a smoke screen to defray blame for the economic carnage coming down the line. In China it's the massive property collapse, in the West it's the aftermath of the Repo Market crisis of 17-9-19.

Scroll to the bottom of this list of links, to start at 17-9-19

[careful] 16/9/2022 14:04

I saw part of the Cramer interview with the Fed ex CEO.

They seem to mostly worried about China and a World recession.
They operate large aircraft that need to be full to be cost effective.
Parcel delivery around the World is weak.

Most of it does not seem to read across to RMG.
An overreaction.

[encarter] 16/9/2022 13:10

Vesa are down a few quid.

[wallywoo] 16/9/2022 13:07

Now the 250 level has been broken, from a chart perspective it looks highly likely that 200 will be tested in the near future. Not worth playing here until it does imo. Though I am sure it will be a good recovery play at some stage.

[geckotheglorious] 16/9/2022 11:27

Double whammy here this morning

Negative downgrade and negative read across from Fed EX


JPMorgan cuts Royal Mail to 'neutral' (overweight) - price target 270 (360) pence

Royal Mail shares were hammered by the negative read-across in markets from US peer FedEx's decision to withdraw its full-year guidance after Thursday's close. It also guided analysts towards fiscal first quarter profits of $3.44 on sales of $23.3bn. That compared to consensus forecasts for $5.14 abd $23.6bn, respectively.

[sr2day] 16/9/2022 11:03

we have been here before,in fact much lower.it bounced back then very strongly. it may go lower and this time i think it will taken over.

[lefrene] 16/9/2022 11:02

Perhaps it's the prospect of a divi cu that has seen the price pushed down. Pension funds and the like want certainty of divi cash flow, hence they like water and electricity utities. 'Unreliable' is not what they want.

Will the energetic new broom in the shape of Liz Truss finally free RMG of the universal service strictures, and let it operate as an actual business? First day on the job remove all current civil service type managers. Slash all mail deliveries to three times a week in built up areas, and twice a week out in the sticks. That should get rid of about 20,000 vans and the bodies that drive them. Ticks loads of 'green' boxes as a bonus!

Only despatch trucks when they have a meaningfull load. Put effort into getting backloads wherever potential empty return trips are being made.

End the utter madness of RMG having to carry other carriers mail for the 'last mile', or at least give them the proper price for doing so. Currently the other carriers get the lions share of the postage for the cheap trunking part of the job and RMG have to do the expensive last mile for aboutr one third of the postage charged. (you just know an idiot central government civil service came up with that one)

There's loads more fine tuning to be had, but those simple basic things would transform the business.

[blackhorse23] 16/9/2022 10:01

https://www.google.com/amp/s/capital.com/amp/cury-currys-share-price-double

[tuftymatt] 16/9/2022 09:49

A circa 6.7% divi as it stands but is that sustainable??
Today's drop is all because of FedEx but we know RMG has plenty of problems of their own!! I took a small amount earlier just to help with the average as maybe there will be a bounce where FedEx is concerned which helps drag this up a little too.

A long shot so only a small amount purchased.

[lefrene] 16/9/2022 09:44

We're at the start of a deep and long slump, buying things on line usually seems to be done with credit cards, and I suspect that credit is rapidly drying up. There are stories coming out of the USA of banks clearing peoples checks and then not letting them withdraw their money! Our banks are likely to be pulling their horns rapidly in too.

Apparently more people are using cash instead of cards (a very good thing in my view), because cash is easier to manage, and emptying purse/wallet is in your face, whereas it's easy to lose track of spending with a card. Thus not only letter post will be shrinking, but it would seem likely that parcel trade will reduce across all carriers.

Fixed overheads have to be carried even if your revenues shrink, and I presume that's what is pressing on investors minds. If one sells now, can it be bought back for less later?

[unastubbs] 16/9/2022 09:30

silly question!

[unastubbs] 16/9/2022 09:07

I agree it definitely feels that way. anyone buying here?

[1224saj] 16/9/2022 09:02

What amazes me is that U.K. stocks don't follow US stocks when they go up, but boy, when they drop we oblige :-(

[sheepshagger1] 16/9/2022 08:15

Target price 100p

[encarter] 16/9/2022 08:01

Still a massive letter business. They are the only company with the infrastructure to deliver letters. Just need to make it profitable.

[careful] 16/9/2022 07:51

Maybe the big online shopping era is fading.
People like to mix, just look at those 11 hour queues in London.

Online retail is expensive and returns are crippling some online retailers.
Great business for RMG but it is fading.

If parcels fall, letters in terminal decline, they do not need daily deliveries from hundreds of thousands of posties.

There will be mass redundancies, it is becoming ridiculous right now, the overheads associated with the huge workforce needed to deliver a few Pizza leaflets.

This share price should strengthen the managements resolve.
RMG is not a charity.

[bc4] 16/9/2022 07:39

Three posts to say the same thing.

[datait] 16/9/2022 07:33

THE FALL HERE HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN

[datait] 16/9/2022 07:27

Royal Mail will be much worse believe me I had worked there for 25yrs they are not good at what they do.

RMG should have been way above the rest.

[datait] 16/9/2022 07:10

This will fall beyond its all time low.

[tuftymatt] 16/9/2022 07:07

I think the impact of the FedEx figures are clear to see here at the opening today!!