Rotala Share Discussion Threads

[andydaf] 28/7/2022 08:21

Interims seem ok to me.Pleased to see a dividend of 0.5p to be payed in september.As always GLA

[rolo7] 20/7/2022 22:50

Wondering if rol buses will be used in commonwealth games as city saying use public transport

[alongthetracks] 12/7/2022 11:34

Cuts coming across the country

[cougar99] 07/7/2022 11:13

That is all I have to say here as am not the sort of person that will keep "banging on" on an investment thread if I have no intention of investing in a company. Until recently I was thinking about purchasing ROL if share price retraced in to the twenties. That is why I dipped in to this thread for my "bus investment". But the information winston has kindly provided recently has been very useful and influenced that thought. Now I won't be at any price.

Having finished my job for the day then am off for a lunchtime real ale pint or three now to relax along with an all day breakfast. Will leave car at home and rely on the NEX bus there and back.

[cougar99] 07/7/2022 10:59

One of the excuses you have used for Diamond not being able to put in a competative bid to retain the Statford and Warwickshire services was the dead mileage Diamond have to and from Redditch bus depot. I have no experience in bus industry but one of the first things I thought about when it was announced that ROL was taking over the routes was the remoter location of ROL depot compared to the contracted routes. Also how the drivers were going to take breaks as I am "old school" where you consider keeping your staff content even when accountants want otherwise.Then the staff "repay" you by staying "loyal" during the bad periods which usually come even with good companies. Did no one at ROL consider the logistical situation before signing a near GBP 1 million commitment. The X20 is quite long duration round trip. The Johnson drivers on the route used to stop at the Henley garage, which is on the route, to changeover or to take a quick pee whilst still managing to run to reasonable schedule. Given the experience of ROL management that you have mentioned did they not consider this important practical aspect of running a reliable bus service.

[cougar99] 07/7/2022 10:45

In the ROL Non-Reg RNS of 29th April then it states that the Johnsons aquisition is expected to generate EBITDA of GBP 200,000 per annum. That would seem impossible now. You have implied this will be updated in the forthcoming Half Year Report due this month or early next month. That particular report may well be good and positive but what about subseqent ones when the effects of withrawal of some bus subsidies kicks-in.

[cougar99] 07/7/2022 10:38

As regards shortage of drivers, as with all industries then available labour is likely to go to companies offering the best pay rates and conditions. Looking through various related web sites overnight then noticed that Diamond in North East are offering a lot higher salaries to drivers than Diamond in Midlands.

Last month this article concerning Green Bus needing 50 drivers for the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham this month:



If link does not work then spend a few seconds putting following in to Google:

green bus drivers commonwealth games

[cougar99] 07/7/2022 10:31

As regards Trustpilot reviews then I am surprised that ROL management can't be bothered or interested to see what paying customers experiences are.
In terms of comparing them with other bus companies on Trustpilot then a good indication is the percentage of 1-Star (terrible) reviews.
Diamond seem to have a highest proportion of uk bus company reviews being one star with some contributers mentioning they would give lower or zero rating if possible. My relative would agree even though they have not posted on Trustpilot.

[cougar99] 07/7/2022 10:21

winston270. As regards the link then it is:



If it still does not work then it'll take a few seconds for you to put thefolllowing in Google:

X20 Stratford Herald Rotala

[cougar99] 07/7/2022 10:18

As regards the rural services in Warwickshire then a relative used to use them. In their first hand experiences Johnsons were not perfect but overall reliable and punctual. They stopped using the services recently as each time let down by Diamond. They have made arrangements so that they do not need to rely on Diamond and have decided that they never wish to set foot an any Diamond Bus anywhere ever again.

[cougar99] 07/7/2022 10:12

Johnsons seems to have played a blinder:
a. Getting rid of scheduled bus operations they didn't want
b. Getting rid of vehicles they didn't want to keep
c. Keeping drivers with them during a period where there is a driver shortage
d. Picking up nearly one million quid, seemingly upfront, for the above

As regards inherited susposedly unroadworthy vehicles then surprised that ROL did not send an engineer for a day trip to Henley to look at the buses before signing a purchade agreement. Especially as the deal was worth nearly GBP 1 million and you have said one of the principle reasons for acquisitions was to obtain vehicles..

[cougar99] 07/7/2022 10:05

winston270. Well we'll have to agree to disagree on the future long term prospects for ROL. After the 'insider' information you have given then I won't consider purchasing any ROL shares whatever the price. I will rely on NEX for my investment in public transport sector. Therefore after I have provided a few replies this morning to your posts I will abstain from this thread. Good luck with your ROL work and investment.

[cougar99] 06/7/2022 09:57

Shouldn't ROL have released an RNS update?

In a Trading Update on 19th May then they announced the Johnsons purchase was expected to be earnings enhancing from completion with estimated recurring annual revenues of approximately GBP3.5 million.
Subsequently we have been advised on this thread about six weeks later (on 30th June) by winston270 that "all those routes were loss making" (post 644) and "Rotala have lost the complete package of Warwickshire County Council tendered routes around Stratford from 24th July" (post 641).

If there is anything incorrect that I have mentioned in this post then I welcome to be corrected as I look for both good and bad news in order to evaluate a company.

[cougar99] 05/7/2022 15:03

winston270. Am surprised you haven't made any counter comments to the Stratford Herald article. It seems to indicate that ROL have forgotten that the basic principle for providing a bus service, especially in rural areas, is that buses should be punctual and reliable. I doubt whether many ROL management wait around in Warwickshire towns and villages for a Diamond bus: or do they. Can't beat personal experiences.
On the "positive side" then looks like we may be able to pick up NEX shares at below 180p before too long.

[cougar99] 04/7/2022 15:30

Aricle in Stratford-upon-Avon Herald mentioning Stagecoach will soon be taking over X20 service from Diamond. It includes quotes from Communications Manager at Rotala:

www.stratford-herald.com/news/bus-company-stagecoach-will-run-stratfords-x20-service-9262064/

[cougar99] 04/7/2022 14:42

winston270: Today did you pick up your NEX when it was around 190p.
As to ROL then does no one at the company look at the Diamond Buses Trustpilot thread. Some interesting customer feedback. None of it is from me but I do have empathy for 94% of it. The post "Missing" on 14th June is quite humorous:

uk.trustpilot.com/review/diamondbuses.com

[cougar99] 01/7/2022 18:00

winston270. Thanks for reply. Had forgotten to mention First Group - they went sub 40p at the Covid dip but are 129p today giving them a market cap. approaching one billion pound. As you have said will need to wait for a retrace before considering that.
As regards NEX WM then have reasonably good experiences with them since return. I did raise one complaint with them. They answered it without any 'spin' or excuses. They agreed with it and apologised. They even offered compensation but didn't take them up on that.
Some things have 'improved' since the old days. When I worked in Brum City Centre a few decades ago I finished at 23.00. My last bus home was at a few minutes past 23.00 so the guy following me on shift used to come in ten minutes early to allow me to catch it. Now the last bus is later: past midnight. However the Nxx buses that used to run every hour throughout the night from Bull Street no longer exist. With Uber etc now then probably no need for night services now - or if like me when I go in to city centre in evening I use my own transport. This mainly for safety considerations. Feel reasoably safe on the late evening buses but it is the waiting around at the city centre 'bus mall' that makes me feel uneasy. In the 'good old days' of the hourly night N buses they all left from Upper Bull Street at the same time, on the hour, and there were several burly bus inspectors and a policeman or two around. Therefore it felt reasonable safe waiting for them then.
NEX still seems to be chasing international expansion. There was mention earlier in year that they were short-listed for some new bus operation in Dubai. But nothing about that pops up recently on an internet search.
Thanks for your views on ROL but presently I still wouldn't feel comfortable with investing in them although still following this thread as if share price is lower again then might consider it. There was talk of the proposed Greater Manchester bus franchising arrangement spreading to West Mids. Do you consider that would be good or bad for ROL (and NEX). A few days ago the Scottish government announced that it is giving local authorities their the power to run their own bus services as part of Section 34 of the Transport (Scotland) Act.
Now all NEX bus bodies look the same to me unlike the 'good old days'. But at least there appear to be a range of colours they are painted in now including rainbow and the the old Birmingham City Transport scheme. Unfortunately no longer any bus bodies made at MCW in Birmingham.
Await to see who continues with the Johnsons school bus contracts next academic year; whether Johnsons or Stagecoach or ???. Spent some time looking at Johnsons website today as feel like a continental coach holiday. Their website is excellent and intuitive to use.

[winston270] 01/7/2022 16:11

Cougar99,

Sorry, no idea on any remaining Johnson's Warwickshire CC supported school services. The bus services cancellations have gone in from Diamond for 23rd July Stratford area service withdrawals, but new Stagecoach Warwickshire registrations have yet to appear.

[winston270] 01/7/2022 16:08

Cougar99,

Don't forget First Group (should they drop back a bit from current levels). I previously had ROL & SGC, didn't do that well from the SGC takeover, I ended up only a bit above breakeven in the finish. I was hoping NEX would have come back with a revised offer for SGC & was ultimately hoping to become an NEX shareholder again, but they only had paper to offer. I do like NEX with how diversified they are in terms of a third of the business in US & Canada, third is Spain & remainder in UK (which does appear to be struggling with profitability at present). I've used my SGC proceeds to top up on ROL & I too have buy orders in place for NEX under £1.90, as it seems to be in a downtrend at present. I'm expecting NX group to either attempt another merger / takeover of possibly First Group in the future, or possibly be on the receiving end of a takeover offer themselves.

I believe ROL has a strong bright future ahead & will be much bigger group in years to come, there are a number of bus companies that are struggling finanacially & are looking to sell out currently. If you look at the Director Shareholdings, they all have decent sums of money invested in the company, Simon Dunn's share holding is his pension, The Dunn's know what they're doing. Plus there are a number of other sizeable shareholders on board investing their personal wealth. ROL doesn't overpay for anything & is very, very thrifty. They acquired all the Johnson's fleet below market value & the bulk of the acquisition costs were attributed to vehicles, similar to the Claribel's deal. Even with the loss of the Warwickshire CC contracts which were all loss making (pvr 14), they still retain a further 14 pvr employed on TfWM, Worcestershire & a Private Uni contract which they are happy with financially. As regards the proposed Worcester cuts, I don't expect to go through with all those proposed service cuts, I personally think it's designed to make the headlines, so support or funding can be found by Worcestershire CC to retain as many services as possible.
hxxp://www.rotalaplc.com/our-investors/shareholder-analysis.html

I very much doubt they'll be any issues with Bus Drivers being out of work, there's a National shortage of them currently. NXWM are struggling for bus drivers, are missing journey's as a result of staffing issues, have cut frequencies (but are less noticeable on frequent services) & are making cuts behind the scenes to reduce costs too, all Groups & subsidaires are, Governement reimbursment changes from September this year & all Covid related support vanishes.

Unfortunately, times are very different from a decade ago & the good old days...

[cougar99] 30/6/2022 20:13

winstow270. If I can access your knowledge on one other point. It seems Johnsons had three parts - coaches, school bus, scheduled bus. They only sold scheduled bus and kept the school services and coaches. I presume the school services are also subsidised by Warwickshire County Council? If so then are Johnsons keeping control of those school services or are they being transferred to Stagecoach?

[cougar99] 30/6/2022 19:40

winstow270. Thank you for reply. Since returning to UK recently then decided to look at opportunities for investing in bus companies. Unfortunately already missed the boat with Stagecoach and GoAhead (and Arriva). So that leaves NEX and ROL as far as I can see. If you have any other suggestions?
For NEX then share price has fallen below 200p so I will start drip feeding in to that. As to ROL then with recent developments in Warwickshire, Worcestershire and Greater Manchester then unfortunately do not feel comfortable in investing in them but looked to thread for views.
I am West Midlands based again now and although I have no connection with buses then take an interest in using them from when in UK previously. Claribels were useless for punctuality when they were running the 55 (which didn't follow the NEX 55 route) and 94 routes (and did they also run a 14 service as well). Although at that time Claribels had the advantage of having cheaper bus fares than NEX which seemed to attract a reasonable number of passengers - but now ROL seem to have the same fares as NEX when operating on the NEX routes (excepting the one month introductory flat fare of a pound for 94 mentioned on ROL website). From a decade or so ago then it was always the same Claribels drivers who were cheerful, relaxed and friendly - and would wait for you to get to the stop if they saw you nearby.
As regards ROL contraction in routes then I hope that all drivers remain in full-time employment with whatever company they end up working for. Humans are more important that physical vehicles.
I remember the 'good old days' of Midland Red (BMMO) buses with their distinctive smell on the rural routes and Guy Arab buses on the Birmingham City Transport routes. Remember well the introduction of OMO with the Guy's being replaced by Daimler Fleetlines that didn't have a protection screen between driver and passengers. The single decker Fleetlines (BCT) and the short double deck Fleetlines (Walsall Corporation) were interesting derivatives.

[winston270] 30/6/2022 18:42

Cougar99,
Yes, I'm West Midlands based, have connections with buses & Rotala. As regards Stagecoach winning the Warwickshire CC Stratford work, I have had confirmation from a number of reliable sources, all have confirmed the same.
As regards the Claribel's 94 route, it was operating at loss under Claribel's, but the losses have reduced since Diamond took it over, still has a way to go to breaking even though.

It hasn't been confirmed what will happen to the redundant buses from 23rd July. The loss of Warwickshire CC tendered work was 14 buses worth of work, but was loss making.

4 ex Johnson's Scania Omnilinks are already up for sale