Rhythmone Share Discussion Threads

[arteespresso] 25/9/2018 21:45

The guy is a fruit loop

[arteespresso] 25/9/2018 21:44

Kendo, the mahongy is an illusion. Beware, the question has just presented itself to you, take caution for the fire is in the sky and the rain falls from the ground.

[1gw] 25/9/2018 21:36

gowlane - you might also be interested in a revenue post I put up, again responding to brassneck who had put up a $205m guesstimate. I put up a couple of ways of estimating revenue, while making the point that it wasn't at all predictable, so estimates were of limited value imo. But as it turns out, this way seems to have got fairly close.

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(from post on lse, 14th September)

Some thoughts on Part 1 focusing on 1H. Revenue is tricky and there must be a huge range of possible outcomes. $205m might be a bit high as a base case and opex at $81m also looks a bit ambitious to me, but I would hope they can do better than $7m exceptionals.

Revenue

From the quarterly stats, volume and fill rate tend to go up from Q1 to Q2 (fy) but price tends to go down. Revenue goes up by an average of 35% from Q1 to Q2 over FY17 and FY18, which against the $87m for Q1FY19 would suggest $118m for Q2 or $205m for H1. So that's the same number by a slightly different route. However, while Q1-Q2 FY17 is a relatively clean comparison, Q1-Q2 FY18 is muddied by the acquisition of RadiumOne towards the end of Q1 (there would have been an extra $20m of revenue from RadiumOne in Q1 FY18 if the acquisition had been completed at the start of the year). If I adjust the Q1 FY18 revenue figures for that, it would bring the average Q1-Q2 revenue growth down to 11% and give $97m for Q2, or $184m for H1 FY19.

So $184m revenue perhaps from that analysis.

[1gw] 25/9/2018 21:33

gowlane - this was a post I put on LSE on 14th September, responding to one of brassneck's posts. It has some thoughts on why gross margin might be expected to be rather higher than 43%, at least:

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(from post on lse, 14th September)

I didn't comment on gross margin before. I think we might see something higher than 43% there. Going back to the pro-forma accounts in the prospectus we had:

Proforma FY17: 45% overall, 50% YuMe, 42% excl YuMe
Proforma 1HFY18: 43% overall, 48% YuMe, 39% excl YuMe

Given they did 43% actual in 2HFY18, with only 2 months of YuMe, and only $17m YuMe revenue at that, I think they might be expecting to do better than 43% overall for 1HFY19 if YuMe revenue has recovered, particularly if they have been shedding some low margin business.

[gowlane] 25/9/2018 21:15

Do you understand these numbers 1gw?

I think you were expecting a good adjusted ebitda rather than good revenues, so that looks like a good call.

But how are they clawing out these figures from declining revenues?

What kind of margins were you expecting in H1? As recently as late June Reginelli was saying 42-43%?

It will be interesting to see how the cash flows work out.

[1gw] 25/9/2018 21:09

Talking of paring costs, have FTI got the boot as part of the shareholder value drive? They're still down on the website as the "Investor Relations" contact, but they're missing from this morning's release as far as I can see. Normally they're listed as "Financial Media Contacts".

And I note the CEO is now double-hatting as the "Analyst and Investor Contact" according to the rns.

[1gw] 25/9/2018 20:54

Pared costs and/or increased margin?

[goblin99] 25/9/2018 20:07

The mahongistani is but the paradox that has presented itself. The chill wind is upon us, for how long is the great unknown. That we seek the answer is not the solution, for as yet, we know not the question. The wise man from the east is but an illusion, to throw doubt as the morning mist awakens from its slumber. The question that we await has been before us, yet we close our eyes in the hope of not knowing. The tear drop in the ocean may help us understand, but, as time descends the desire to understand restricts our thoughts.

[stocky] 25/9/2018 19:34

Still not over being Blackocked?

[kendonagasaki] 25/9/2018 19:28

Jon C,Just watching the dvd ghost rider.Have you seen it?Ghost Rider not Goat Rider.Your mind is continually in the gutter!Tut, tut!

[kendonagasaki] 25/9/2018 19:24

You also have a history of making continual bearish comments as a non holder.That point is pointless silk!A bit like you in fact?

[sikhthetech] 25/9/2018 18:36

As stated many times, 1R have a history of bullish comments and failing to back them up when it comes to TU/results..


Today's TU is no different..

As expected...

[andydangerous] 25/9/2018 18:23

Here's how I see it now fwiw,



I mentioned before it might need another rotation and that the E wave tends to be the quickest wave of the pattern. So it looks like the swing down yesterday afternoon/this morning is probably it, with another decent impulsive move back up. Meaning a break of yesterday's high (228.5p)would be the big breakout for me now, and below 198p would be invalidation. It could well just push on up through from here I think, or I wouldn't be surprised to see it drift back to the to around the axis (213.5p) before another triggering event.
Also, first close above the 200 day moving average since July 2017 today. If you're into that kind of thing.

[jonc] 25/9/2018 17:38

After today's TU the share price did not manage to breach the highs of yesterday.This is a bearish indicator.Will now drift down towards zero.

[1gw] 25/9/2018 17:29

I think you can look at today's trade as bullish - we've managed to sustain the anticipatory rally that was underway. Now will the share price fall back, flatline or start to build again towards a possible mid-october TU?

[jonc] 25/9/2018 16:53

Or £100k worth sold in the auction.

The auction is matched bargains both buys and sells.

The big question is who is selling?

Looks like an institutional investor.

[kendonagasaki] 25/9/2018 16:53

How did you know silks name was mahongistani?

[midasx] 25/9/2018 16:53

The limited information trading update was obviously produced to counteract negative comment about the resignation of the CFO.

Can you imagine the de-rampers all over an RNS simply stating the CFO has resigned!


Well done the board for thinking of the shareholders.


I am guessing we will get more meat on the bone in early October after half year end.


The CFO has obviously been forced out as proven by the lack of the usual, "thanks for the blah blah blah blah!

Creating shareholder value is the order of the day as the present reincarnation of the old blinkx has been manufactured by Tosca who will be looking for a good return on their investment.

[loafofbread] 25/9/2018 16:49

£100K worth bought in the auction at the days high is a good close in my book!

They can't do any merger or paper deals until they have a half decent share price Might have something to do with it?

[kendonagasaki] 25/9/2018 16:46

How's your short to zero going goat shagger?

[wheeze] 25/9/2018 16:39

A blue close is a blue close - n'est pas ?

[jonc] 25/9/2018 16:35

While I accept that a blue close is a blue close given the misguided euphoria of the rampers this morning between 7.02 and 8.00am this must be a major disappointment.

This TU was supposed to be the catalyst for a rampant bull run.

In fact the TU has confirmed that there is no organic growth in t/o.

In a fast growing market R1 is clearly a dud.

But of course the wise and savvy among us knew that.

There now is nothing to ramp the price and we should again see a decline in the share price.

Probably to zero.

[jonc] 25/9/2018 15:58

Staggering.