Revolution Bars Share Discussion Threads

[zingerburger] 29/12/2020 11:54

Added here

[glavey] 25/12/2020 19:02

You may have missed the point. If they price the options at ten a penny what does that tell you they think the shares could be worth? As no actual performance is required, that seems to confirm that they feel performance is outside of management's control.

A binary bet on survival?

[glavey] 25/12/2020 05:43

24/12/2020 11:36
"Grant of Options"
"Revolution Bars Group plc announces that on 24 December 2020, its Remuneration Committee agreed to grant options under the Revolution Bars Group plc Performance Share Plan (the "Plan") with an exercise price of GBP0.001 per share over 1,035,115 ordinary shares of GBP0.001 each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") (the "PSP Options") to directors and other persons discharging managerial responsibility ("PDMRs") as set out in the table below."

OK, so let's see..., it's a Performance Share Plan and the options are priced at ten a penny. Umm...

[bobbyaxlerod] 22/12/2020 11:28

Gypsy,

I’d love to be able to agree with you but then we’d both be wrong.

I’ll look forward to re-reading your post in 3 to 6 months time.

Have a good Xmas, hopefully someone will buy you a business book or two.

Bob

[thomasearnshaw] 21/12/2020 09:07

Ken
u took the words out ma mouth

[ken chung] 21/12/2020 09:06

Lemmings and mushrooms only.

[gypsyfortuneteller] 21/12/2020 08:49

Bobby Axelrod

You are an idiot. I think you’ll find that any professional investor would share my analysis.

[bobbyaxlerod] 18/12/2020 21:10

I do love how people who clearly have no idea how to value a business spout their ideas as fact.

I’m continuing to top up at these levels, the bars have the facilities to see themselves through to more normal times.

We need to remember that the government won’t keep everything locked down until everyone is vaccinated, they’ll keep it locked down whilst deaths and hospital admissions are high.

That’s why the elderly and care homes are being targeted first, once a good proportion of the over 65’s are vaccinated we will see a significant decrease in deaths.

Something like 90% of deaths relate to people over 65.. once we get down to deaths in the 10’s a day they will re-open the economy.

I believe (and I could obviously be wrong, I’m not going to state anything as fact) that the share price will be 30 by end of January at the latest and in the 40’s by April - possibly higher. The analysts agree as well for whatever that’s worth.

[dennisbergkamp] 18/12/2020 10:35

I think a retrace is logical and will wait till then to jump back on

D

[glavey] 18/12/2020 10:27

June 2021?

[gypsyfortuneteller] 18/12/2020 10:18

Swan, I don’t disagree but I don’t think we’ll be back to normal til June and Revs don’t have the funding for that. While they could raise more equity or debt to bridge the valuation doesn’t change so new money simply receives a transfer of the current £25m equity value at the time. So unless everything is flawless and total relief from all types of lockdown ends by Easter, 20p seems to be the max price for current equity and all the risks are to the downside

[swanvesta] 18/12/2020 09:26

Thanks Gypsy, you may be right on the valuation. But I was responding to the 'bust by March' assertions. The whole plan hinges on surviving until end of March, and slide 13 of the recent presentation shows they can do that under complete lockdown.

[gypsyfortuneteller] 18/12/2020 08:15

Swanvesta.

The maths is easy. Let’s say they get back to a run rate ebitda of £10m at some point. A fair multiple for the business is probably not more than 6x, so a value of £60m. At the point in time that happens, net debt will be c£35m, meaning max value for equity is £25m, or around 20p a share. And that value presumes rapid ramp up to full ebitda, zero execution risk, no lockdowns beyond March and as we know, cash/bank facility headroom is extremely tight by then. So if 20p is aspirational value, today’s value factoring in risk really shouldn’t be more than 10p

[swanvesta] 17/12/2020 18:42

So, are you saying the board haven't thought of that?

[glavey] 17/12/2020 17:46

Save that April is preceded by March... ;-)

[swanvesta] 17/12/2020 16:49

I suspect this statement has something to do with it:

"... the Board is encouraged by the recent announcements of the COVID vaccine and currently expects that the business will gradually recover to its previous performance levels over the course of the six months from April 2021, being the date the UK Government expect restrictions to materially ease. "

That does not tally with posters here saying bust by March.

[glavey] 17/12/2020 15:09

Heaven knows why this has risen today, other than any publication suggesting it still has a pulse. Question is, will it live to see the 21 first half update?

[tewkesbury] 17/12/2020 09:48

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55332242

[dagsteeth] 17/12/2020 07:46

As predicted. Out of cash by March. Another £8m of transfer of value from equity to debt over the period. This really should head back to 10p or less. The rant from the CEO, while understandable, gives an idea of just how screwed they are

[euromedic] 14/12/2020 15:48

London tier3 from weds

[ken chung] 11/12/2020 08:48

Dropping nicely.Lemmings and mushrooms only.

[swanvesta] 07/12/2020 15:34

Glavey, I was just pointing out the non sequitur.