Redt Energy Share Discussion Threads

[owenski] 16/6/2022 10:12

Just to add, current market conditions are fully risk off.

Companies still earning, paying divis and sitting on cash aren't being bought at present, so risky stuff with mostly a story to sell are going to get hammered.

IES were fortunate to have raised at a quid a while back, it'd be 20p if they tried that now.

[owenski] 16/6/2022 09:41

Thanks Green

I keep an eye on this as I think it has potential, but the deal signing has proven to be too slow and could push the desired cash flow positive, that investors want to see, out by a factor of years.

I think it's a realistic financial assessment to estimate 80m revenue to achieve profitablity, but this is nowhere near that and upcoming results likely to look dire.

It's a shame really and I don't know what's going on here, we're supposed to be in an energy transition phase, lithium has risks and is price trending up, VRB's are cost effective on the project life cycles they're designed for, so where's the uptake??

Management could do with updating shareholders more regularly.

The SG deal could be the game changer required and accelerate deals, also, the SG partnership will be for large scale projects, even so that could also take time to materialise.

I suspect good old RED/IES will be true to past form and raise funds again in about a years time.

[greenmachine2] 15/6/2022 14:28

I am pleased Owenski that you still post here on an old RED thread about IES. I see that Hero2zero, who set up the IES thread and sadly blocked people who were negative about Invinity, has has today 15th June posted advising he/she no longer holds IES. Nevertheless the suggestion was made by him/her that people private message if they are unhappy with IES posts on the thread.

I am still a holder in IES though these days the upside in share price terms I think is more limited than in the past for a variety of reasons

[owenski] 15/6/2022 08:02

They've probably got a years worth of money left but are also likely to raise again if they're this slow on closing deals. Also their model is capital heavy upfront if I remember.

They also need sales in the region of 80m to make profit, that doesn't look like happening soon.

[owenski] 15/6/2022 07:59

Looks like this will be staying on my watch list only for now, the lack of sales progress for a company operating in a fossil fuel transition space is not encouraging.

[owenski] 23/2/2022 14:46

Business just shy of 90m m.cap

c25m of that is cash.

Fully funded for a good two years.

The only downside is length of time to score contracts,
but that should improve as they are past PoC stage and are now
commercialised with decent active pipeline.

[owenski] 23/2/2022 11:01

Exert from todays news -

"Invinity is leading the project consortium, which includes Pivot Power, part of EDF Renewables,
and EDF R&D UK, with the objective of progressing this first-of-a-kind project towards
financial close and ultimately delivery. With the aim of generating low-cost, low-carbon,
dispatchable energy as part of the UK's journey to Net Zero, the project will serve
as a template for other grid-constrained solar generation sites globally."

I can see this working well and being a statement of intent for the wider storage market.


Bit like watching paint dry with Invinity, but the signs are there for a growth company,
should also be some news flow from GS venture this year, which is a project tilted
towards very large scale utility grade storage.

The odds are favourable for Invinity to be in a sweet spot at some point - as a guess,
I'd have thought well within a two year time span tangible operational and
positive financial clarity should be evident to all and sundry.

Meanwhile, Invinity has already raised funds that should pay the wage bill and more
for at least two years thus de-risking investors from dilution. Funds were raised at 100p,
one can buy in today @ 77p, gotta be a very reasonable lower risk higher reward
entry point if one can exercise a bit of patience -
forward expected news flow only lessens that risk.

One other thing, Russia is providing a fillip to weaning off imported fossil fuels
and not just to the UK.

The chart shows - down, the business shows - up. Maybe time to follow the business.

[owenski] 13/2/2022 11:27

Still in a down trend


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[owenski] 18/11/2021 10:02

Extract from document - Item 1 use of proceeds -

"In terms of working capital, whilst sales contracts include
a deposit on signing, they currently become cash negative
during the procurement and manufacturing lifecycle.
This means that each increase in output requires a
commensurate increase in the funding required,
albeit offset to a degree as gross margins
and supplier terms improve with scale."


This is exactly why it wont be the last fund raise.
Note also, head count will be increasing,
I'll suggest next results wont be a good read.

But, I think IES is definitely one to have on the
watch list, maybe worth a trade now and then, perhaps
still a bit to early to jump in as a long term investment.

Just my musings on the matter.

[owenski] 18/11/2021 09:52

IES aims to take 10% of the storage market by 2030

That might be a bit ambitious being as that is only
9 years away and currently, from the last (2020)
fund raise they merely doubled production capacity.

It's why I think that to meet this sort of penetration
aspiration they will need some pretty serious facility
expansion, thus, this will definitely not be the last
fund raise.

[owenski] 18/11/2021 09:33

It's actually quite a serious dilution to shareholders.
Schroders must be playing a very very long game here as
if all the ords are issued and all warrants exercised
the forward dilution will be 56%

56% - pretty eye watering

Having already consolidated the share base once
they are certainly back to printing confetti.

Just goes to show that they are at an early stage
of their commercialisation.

Personally, I don't think Schroders have played this well
and they did break their financial modelling rules when
they starting funding REDt and then IES, kinda shows why one
has rules and why one shouldn't break them.

If future warrants are exercised they could raise a total
of over 83m quid, that's quite a figure and a heck of a dilution.

I also think it might not be the last fund round they do,
if they're aiming for the kind of market penetration that
they claim to target, I reckon they'll need upward scaling Op-Ex
could even total another 50+ million in longer term horizons.

[owenski] 18/11/2021 08:42

Good that the funding is dealt with, that created short term uncertainty for the company

However, 30m now needs to be added to the market cap
so the dilution is not exactly immaterial,
and it's unlikely this will be the last funding round.

Meantime, whilst the prospects are encouraging for Invinity
they are still at an early stage in their commercial roll out.

Could do with some material utility scale orders in the magnitude
of the projects under discussion which is circa 40MWH a pop.

As a ball park reference point I'd suggest they need to be selling
50 to 70MWH of VR3 product to achieve breakeven at current costings.
So they have some way to go yet, and these type of projects certainly
have long lead times to convert, over a year, but they are likely to happen
especially with the ESO project now as an active reference.

Another issue that will need clarifying, perhaps at the next company Q&A,
will be supply chain constraints - this has been mentioned by the company
often enough and therefore should be taken as a serious restraint.

Good to see the warrant pricing at a decent premium.

The road map looks bright for Invinity and VRB's
no doubt inroads will be made into Lithium's dominance.

[owenski] 18/11/2021 07:24

Ref. my last post, and here we are.

I also said I'd prefer them to raise 20m and they are just above that ball park.

I also think they are still a couple of years away from profitability and as such
would not rule out another fund raise in future times -
very likely if sales do accelerate, they will need op-ex to gear up for that.

Generally, I'm on the ball with this company. :-)

[owenski] 06/10/2021 09:33

Looks like this is pricing in the next fund raise.

[sleveen] 01/10/2021 11:42

owen

Agree with the above.

[owenski] 01/10/2021 11:37

Excellent presentation on IES interims -



A very credible focused team and great overview of financials from the CFO

IES are going places, however, short term they are still showcasing the
systems with ESO being critical as a shop window to potentially
accelerate other projects.

They will, as said, require funding for probably another year possibly two.
At year 2, I'd expect them to be profitable.

My calculations - taking into account that they have pricing pressures
from shipping and raw material input costs - which have knocked back
their projected GM from the 20's into the teens, price in a required
estimate that they turnover c £75m to £80m in order to achieve profitability.

They are not there yet, but will be worth taking a position here at some point.

[owenski] 30/9/2021 17:47

Having consolidated they will be diluting once again, and so it continues.

Schroders having 23% is not a vote of confidence, they are underwater on these and have too large a weighting IMO

The mugs used to bang on about Schroders when they had 5% as if they were some sort of oracle, to be clear on Schroders, they actually broke their investing criteria rules when they bought into IES - formerly Redt - and now they're compounding that mistake.

[sleveen] 30/9/2021 12:49

Why wait until March for funding, better to do a placing now @ 85p than in March @ say 40p.

Crazy.

[owenski] 30/9/2021 12:19

Cheers Green

Two words investors don't want to hear -

DELAYS

FUNDING

[greenmachine2] 30/9/2021 09:50

Owenski I think you have it spot on on your recent comments on IES. I await the next news from IES with interest. Sales revenue dates are slipping,installation delays, stretched supply chains. More funding calls coming up too, not a good combination.

[owenski] 29/9/2021 17:38

The folks who do more than salivate over the management blurb will know a fund raise
is coming and looks like it's starting to reflect that.

This is still loss making and likely to be so for a few years yet, that makes buying the shares high risk.

They still have an uphill battle to wean projects off Lithium.

The recent numbers were sobering too.