React Share Discussion Threads

[nobbygnome] 26/10/2022 15:00

I have asked ADVFN to update the market cap

[jeanesy] 26/10/2022 13:55

I wonder if they are going to do a podcast/proactive update to the market ? The PR ssde of things is very quiet here. They need to promote what is going on.

[nobbygnome] 26/10/2022 13:52

Likewise double my PE values. Still looks cheap but not as ridiculously cheap as I thought!

[yump] 26/10/2022 13:41

They’re not difficult accounts to read. Its worth sticking a few figures in to see what comes out. I don’t like relying on statements

All acquisitions, in all company statements are “earnings enhancing”. That never tells you what the reference point is.

For revenue as a base, take this year’s 13.6mln and add the 3mln from Ladders Free to get next year’s minimum revenue.

Any revenue growth on top of that is a bonus.

I might average down. Given the low number of shares traded I won’t give advance notice of my buys though!

Just need to look at previous revenues and those of Fidelis, to see if the business is actually growing organically in its market, or just because of acqisitions.

[yump] 26/10/2022 09:55

Halve everything I just posted ! (Just edited my posts)

Advfn more interested in getting money for accidental clicks on the background adverts, than providing a good service.

Roughly 1000mln shares in issue.
Make 1mln profit next year, 0.1p earnings.
P/e of 10 at 1p share price.

Profits will appear to be growing fast. No idea what rating would be appropriate.

[the shuffle man] 26/10/2022 09:49

The market cap on ADVFN is wrong. They haven’t updated from the last fund raising. Mkt cap is around £8m.

[le4r] 26/10/2022 09:49

Maybe just holidays - half term is here after all. He was posting on CAPD thread two weeks ago.

[yump] 26/10/2022 09:48

I think the finances are easier to understand than the statement paragraphs !

Half year rev was 5mln, Second half 8.6mln. Full 13.6

Say 17mln next year (modest growth plus ladders free) strip out the exceptionals, assuming Ladders free acq cost is in the second half this year. That leaves fidelis performance payments and finance costs for next year.

Could be a big jump in profits. Assuming they let these acquisitions bed in and don’t make a big acquisition

[effortless cool] 26/10/2022 09:32

I hope rivaldo is okay. He's been uncharacteristically silent on these boards for a couple of weeks now.

[ged5] 26/10/2022 09:28

Recently the chart has been a nightmare to look at. RSI below 10, most indicators down and starting to look as if oblivion was staring us in the face.

Today there is a statement with nine paragraphs one of which is negative, one an explanation of the adjustment, one that could be interpreted either way (This year a payment but going forward is positive) and the introductory paragraph.

So that leaves five paragraphs that are positive.

"the outlook for the Group as a whole remained positive.

multiple new contract wins and potential for the Company to extend the range of services to customers and provide the Group with additional recurring income.

the investment has already, and is continuing to have, a positive impact with increased sales momentum particularly with small to medium sized contract wins and a growing pipeline of potential new contracts across the Group.

performance has shown an improvement with increasing revenues generated in this division and a particularly strong Q4 which has persisted into the start of the current financial year.

Trading in the last three months of the year ended 30 September 2022, and into the current financial year, has been especially strong across the Group,"

The business seems to be in good shape going forward so no reason to feel despondent. Hopefully we'll see a reversal to the steady decline in the share price over the coming months.

[nobbygnome] 26/10/2022 09:20

So a PE of 8 for this year after exceptionals which is very likely to fall next year. Still looks very cheap to me

[superhoop2] 26/10/2022 09:06

Would like to hear Rivaldo's thoughts ... if he is still with us?

[yump] 26/10/2022 08:59

On reflection, I’d guess at around 500K of exceptionals, as they were about 260K at half year. Ladders free acquired after that. I assume Fidelis acq costs already done and dusted and its just earn-out payments for them. Plus finance costs (which will repeat but not high).

Which might leave earnings at around 0.05p - p/e of about 16.

[yump] 26/10/2022 08:39

Its not on a p/e of 4.

Ebitda is the usual AIM reporting that avoids talking about profit.

The £1mln adjusted ebitda gives 0.1p per share, which is an (alternative) p/e of 8.

Actual pretax profit after all the exceptionals will be way less. In this case at least the exceptionals should be one/offs.

Which might mean a big (proper) profit jump in 2023.

Be nice if these AIM tiddlers would stop banging on about ebitda, especially if they are not part of the con-artists that do it every year, to conveniently avoid the fact that their exceptionals are actually repeating and therefore not exceptionals.

Hopefully this is different. I can’t imagine why the exceptionals would repeat next year. Unless there is the dreaded “strategic review” in the pipeline, but the progress doesn’t seem to show any potential problems.

Guess we’ll have to wait to see the actual p/e. Its possible there’s a loss - if there’s £1mln of exceptionals, which would give an amazing bargain if there’s panic in the shareholder ranks and the exveptionals are all one-offs.

[nobbygnome] 26/10/2022 08:33

And to add to my earlier post they are valued at a third times turnover. These sorts of valuation stats would normally be reserved for a company in big distress whereas that is not the case here. Sometimes the market is mad….

[vikingben] 26/10/2022 08:24

I think that keeping hold of these for a few years we can get a very good return on our investment, however it would be useful if some large new contract were announced to get things moving north

[jeanesy] 26/10/2022 08:07

A good opportunity to average down imo.

[nobbygnome] 26/10/2022 08:05

So the company is on a PE of about 4 and over 25% of the market cap is cash! It looks ridiculously cheap to me….

[jeanesy] 26/10/2022 07:40

Trading update out. Strong end to last year and current trading also. Lets hope that the market focusses on this rather than the missed profit taget of 1.3m ( 1m instead)

[superhoop2] 26/10/2022 07:39

A steady update... appears to be heading in the right direction. Will be interesting to see the market reaction.

[vikingben] 25/10/2022 12:20

The trade of 500k @ .756p was a buy
Was shown as a sell

[jeanesy] 24/10/2022 10:43

Trading update should be this week or early next . Fingers crossed for something better !

[jeanesy] 14/10/2022 11:48

Another large sale just gone through. I am nervously waiting for that update and hope these sales are not people in the know on what is going on !

[superhoop2] 14/10/2022 10:34

Jeanesy, nice summary ... won't be long now til the update!