Randgold Resources Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 06/8/2015 21:04

No abc, I missed the Barrick spike; I was short in to the results and did not up my position. I did hit the Randgold one this morning.

I think people can see with ABX, after the enthusiasm of announcements about asset sales, that the stream they sold to Royal from their cheapest and most productive mine will clip shareholder returns. I think the deal they did with ANTO was very good for them, but old news and in the price, but they will get jack for their US properties. Oh and the dividend cut from almost nothing to even less. I can't fathom why anyone would own it.

[abc125] 06/8/2015 17:52

Have you shorted the spike in barrick hpcg?

Got my short a bit early at 680p. Going to add more. Around 708p currently.

[hpcg] 06/8/2015 12:35

Investors have done the basic maths since first thing this morning and worked out what poor value this is. Whilst supporters and the company like to talk about picking up distressed assets the best way of doing that is to hold cash, not shares in a gold miner.

The gold price is still no where near enough to hit production by the major producers.

[hpcg] 06/8/2015 08:17

Using an optimistic 1100 PoG for this Q revenue will be off from 355 to 329 or a drop of 26 million. It takes net cash to 45 and profit to 33 (all mm USD).

[hpcg] 06/8/2015 08:02

Very good results, but these are still massively over valued. I know NPV is more appropriate, but paying near 20x makes no sense.

[abc125] 06/8/2015 07:18

yep, got an order in for a barrick short. This major 4 year bear market needs to claim one scalp at least, and that scalp will be barrick most likely.

[careful] 06/8/2015 07:09

great results.
such a low production cost/oz ($684) will ensure rurvival.
a quality investment for the long term.

..and no debt at all, zero gearing.
with a cash surplus, there is something you do not see every day.

[hpcg] 05/8/2015 15:32

abc125 - Barrick reports tomorrow as well. 12 Billion debt there.

[gucci] 05/8/2015 14:47

Time to buy this?

[careful] 04/8/2015 14:24

hoping for a surprise on the upside on thursday.
currency effects in our favour.

[hpcg] 04/8/2015 13:48

Yes I am short, though trading above and below 3800. I have made decent money from Newmont but not short there at the moment.

[abc125] 04/8/2015 10:59

hpcg, are you still holding your short?

Newmont might have been a better short. Its comfortably breached its 2008 lows.

[hpcg] 30/7/2015 21:29

Yes is could, such are the risks, but the downside move will be as strong. NY opened lower than yesterday's close and finished lower still. It is now back below the short term trend line. London has never peaked above. It is a case for careful watching.

[abc125] 30/7/2015 21:00

It looked like it was going to crack today. I suppose we have to be cogniscent of the possibility that gold could retest the break down point at $1130-40 before sinking down to $1000.

In such a scenario, RRS could rally hard.

[abc125] 30/7/2015 11:16

The short may require a bit of patience. 3800p will be a tough nut to crack like you say. Still, its beginning to form a nice tight wedge.

[hpcg] 30/7/2015 09:58

Yes, daily spread bet. I don't use stops, either directly or indirectly, I act on trend changes, candle patterns that type of thing. I think today is to a certain extent following the rise in the US yesterday. A close above 6070 in the US might signal a trend, yesterdays close was 6040. In London 3893 and 3948 are key levels. I can't see the latter being breached with POG firming away from 1100. 3800 was quite closely matched with 1104. Today I expect some anaemic action until New York opens (down if POG still around 1085) and both London and NY to fall away.

Result are a week or so away so possibly people are waiting a bit?

[abc125] 30/7/2015 08:50

Taken a small short and put in an order at the recent high of 39.50.

[abc125] 30/7/2015 08:39

Yep, surprised at this mornings resilience despite the gold price dropping. Are you shorting via a daily spread bet and do you have a stop in place?

[hpcg] 30/7/2015 08:33

I have done. Both last night on the ADR (up over 2% for some reason) and added more on the London list today at just above 3800. Gold continues to weaken and I think the 3800 level is such a key support level that when it really goes the price will drop far and fast.

My primary reasoning is the fall in US oil stockpiles means a stronger economy which does make rate rises more likely.

[abc125] 30/7/2015 08:06

hpcg, i'm itching to put a short on here but don't want to jump the gun. Logic would have told me that there should have been a bounce following last weeks price crash, but nothing. I'd feel more comfortable shorting from the 40.00+ level.

Let me know when you short i might join you. Gold looking a bit weak currently.

[hpcg] 29/7/2015 13:41

I am flat at the moment, though with a small gold short running. I think gold needs to unwind a bit before heading down again. But as you say it could head up, so probably too dangerous to be short here and now IMO. 3800 is a key level and I am tempted to go small short when it pops its head above but this A.M. not enough.

The sequence today is Fed, dollar, gold, RRS. If Fed hawkish then I'll be selling here.

[abc125] 29/7/2015 13:19

Anyone still short here?

Gold can't seem to make up its mind. A break either way is coming.

[hpcg] 26/7/2015 12:35

Tactically I reduced my short by 2/3 on Friday just before the close as gold perked up. I will see what Monday brings. The rise on Friday was New York whilst Hong Kong has tended to be weaker recently.

Buywell, I have the same diagonal as you and I make a target of around 2650 or 2700 if gold breaks down further. Also well worth overlaying GLD. RRS tends to exaggerate upward gold moves and then has further to fall. It is about up with gold events so if gold shows signs of life then RRS will likely over react up.