Quadrise Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 31/1/2014 00:33

Yes, everyone seems content with the recent leaps in share price. That is good. Me too. But only to a certain extent.

If you boil down the recent good surge in share price ,the overall share price performance over three or four years has in fact been very lacklustre.

Take the starting point as the 49p when Quintain sold new equity in its Autumn 2009 Rights Issue when Rucker took the helm. This was 4+ years ago.

For a significant period the share was totally underwater relative to the RI price.

It was only when Max James came on board that things started improving and the share price has moved on and is now double the RI price.

Many other property companies continued to pay an attractive yield of 5-6% throughout the financial crisis and still their share prices have doubled,tripled or more over the same time-frame since 2009.

If you strip out a theoretical annual yield of 5-6% over the last four years from the current QED share price (such as many of their Comparator group paid), it gives a more accurate benchmark of the overall rather lead-footed share price performance since the 2009 RI.

You say the share has had a fantastic performance but that is highly debatable. A sector bell-weather such as Land Securities has gone from 400p to £10.50 over the same period and been paying a great dividend throughout. This makes Quintain's rise from 49p to 99p look pallid at best. And many of the smaller, more fleet-of-foot property companies have done much better.

Quintain has enjoyed a good recent run but the overall performance since 2009 is not particularly encouraging as far as share price is concerned. That fact, combined with no dividend, is disconcerting.

Scburbs is absolutely spot on in his last post.

One of the major factors holding back Quintain's share price is this very lack of dividend.

You see, many investors are attracted to property stocks because of the yield. Without a yield, Quintain are shutting themselves off from a whole universe of potential other/new investors who will automatically filter out any property company stock which does not offer dividend income.

It's an expected norm for any stock in this sector to pay a dividend. Those which don't are seriously disadvantaged.

Of course we want to see capital growth in the share price but that will be vastly aided if Quintain start paying a dividend and thereby open themselves up to a much larger investor base.

Do remember that Quintain has always set out its stall as a dividend paying stock. But they have not yet delivered. This will not have gone unnoticed by the market and equity analysts.

The stock price only goes up because more people want to buy it. And there is a large universe of investors out there who will de facto not touch Quintain with a barge-pole purely because Quintain pay no dividend. That needs to change.

If Quintain start paying a dividend and put in place a credible progressive dividend policy, that will not just firmly underpin the stock but put a rocket under the share price. It will open up the company to copious new investors, many of whom may be deep-pocketed institutional funds who will now be allowed under their strict investment criteria to buy Quintain stock on account of it being a dividend generating share.

For many of the institutions who hold Quintain currently, they do so in "Special Situations or Recovery" funds and portfolios. However there is an infinitely larger universe of mainstream, income producing institutional funds who are currently precluded from buying Quintain stock because of the lack of yield.

My contention is that a major factor in holding back the share price from motoring forward is this very lack of any dividend.

This is an important issue which Quintain now need to address urgently if we want to see the Quintain share price free to rise significantly further.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[911man] 30/1/2014 20:57

Usually, I steer clear of getting involved in too much discussion on bulletin boards. The facts is that the share price has performed fantastically over the last couple of years. I agree this has been up and down (and up) but the direction is now looking good. If management continues to perform to its new objectives, the share price will be well north of here within a year, whether or not a dividend is paid. I remain a strong investor.

[scburbs] 30/1/2014 20:20

911MAN,

Personally I am not that interested in the dividend. However, I do think it is a good discipline for this type of company and perhaps more importantly paying a dividend can lead to capital growth (in the share price) due to attracting a broader spectrum of investors.

[911man] 30/1/2014 20:07

I disagree, I am afraid, but everyone has different outlooks. For me Quintain is largely a capital growth vehicle. I am sure that the dividend will come, but maybe next year after seeing consistent profit return. Quintain had really got itself into a mess under the old management. Give the new management enough time to complete the task.

[scburbs] 30/1/2014 19:44

No reason, not to pay a dividend. Property development companies may have lumpy profits, but a lumpy profit is still a profit (or at least it is after they have sold)!

"Subsequently completed a £230 million deal to dispose of Greenwich Peninsula interest, crystallising enhanced value and delivering a £31 million profit."

Paying a dividend is a good discipline and encourages additional investors who want a mix of income and capital growth. QED could comfortably afford a 3-4p per share dividend, supported this year by Greenwich sale and in future years by next phases of Wembley.

[quepassa] 30/1/2014 18:34

Many other property companies are already producing all three of:-

1. Profits
2. Capital uplift, and
3. Dividends


Quintain have improved enormously under the aegis of Max James. But to be taken seriously as a meaningful property stock, they cannot continue to lag the rest of the dividend paying property market and go unnoticed, whilst the vast majority ( if not all) of their self-chosen Comparator peer-group are able to pay a dividend.

There is no excuse any longer for not having been able to produce dividend income for more than five years.

Most investors would rightly expect a £half-billion market cap UK property company to be able to pay a dividend in today's strong property sector.

Certainly, I do.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[911man] 30/1/2014 18:09

I am surprised at the strident calls for a dividend. Let's not forget that the transformational deals (2) on Grenwich are the reason for a change and they are yet to produce meaningful profits, not just capital movements. Dividends will come, but let's see the profits first!

[maddox] 30/1/2014 17:00

Yep, as I said - buying opportunity. Cheers Maddox

[quepassa] 30/1/2014 10:04

Yes, but they have been talking about returning to an income paying model for so long now. Years, in fact.

It's a bit like waiting for Godot.......after watching that dreadful play for three hours and full of expectation ...he still doesn't turn up.

Many other property stocks have been increasing dividends slowly. Quintain aren't even at the starting blocks.

On page 61 of their 12/13 Annual Report, Quintain give a lengthy list of Comparator property companies which they judge themselves against for performance criteria. The vast majority (if not all)are all income/dividend payers and Quintain stand out like a sore thumb as having no dividend.

If I find a few moments, I'll post Quintain's Comparator list with some research into the dividends of the property companies on that list.

A bit embarrassing really.

If so many other property companies can pay a dividend, it is weak in my view that Quintain don't and this reflects poorly on the company which otherwise is now getting a lot of things right.

And without doubt, the lack of any dividend will continue to act as a big drag on the Quintain share price.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[maddox] 30/1/2014 09:32

On the otherhand QuePassa, this is thus a buying opportunity ahead of the decision to reinstate a dividend. As you say the transformation of the financial risk profile of the business makes this decision inevitable. The only rationale for withholding this decision is the better use of the capital to take advantage of a buoyant market and strong prices.

Cheers Maddox

[quepassa] 30/1/2014 09:23

Quintain have made a remarkable corporate turn-around over the last year. Their financial position is strong. Management is good with a highly regarded Chief Executive. Their core London market is performing exceptionally.

The potential is great for this share.

However, the lack of any dividend (for around 5 years now) will continue to act as a major drag on the share price.

The on-going lack of any dividend whatsoever will and continues to hinder Quintain greatly in achieving its full potential as a rated property stock.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[purple boots] 29/1/2014 09:47

Decision time, will this break 100 or retrace. IMS last year 6th Feb so not long to find out.

[quepassa] 28/1/2014 08:27

Stunning full-year figures from house-builder Crest Nicholson today. PBT up 40%.

This is an extract from their RNS today:-

Commenting on today's statement, Stephen Stone, Chief Executive of Crest Nicholson said:

"These are an excellent set of results, which cap an exciting year for Crest Nicholson, in which the business returned to the public markets. Our extensive land bank has enabled us to deliver strong growth in volumes, bringing many more families into home ownership, whilst continuing to drive good returns for our investors. We are pleased to mark our return as a listed company by declaring a final dividend.

Government initiatives to assist purchasers in buying a new home have undoubtedly stimulated activity in the industry and we are playing our part by increasing production where possible. Private home completions were up 35% over the year and we took almost 600 reservations under the 'Help to Buy' scheme. Improving sentiment in the housing market and beyond along with an excellent pipeline of future projects across the southern half of England gives the Board great confidence in the outlook for the business."


Let's hope that all this very bullish sectoral backdrop feeds through to Quintain's figures who in my view need to bite the bullet and this year start paying a long-awaited and long-overdue shareholder dividend.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 22/1/2014 08:35

Strong figures today from London-focused big brother Land Securities in their Q3 IMS.

Extract from Land Securities IMS:-

Commenting on the quarter, Land Securities' Chief Executive Robert Noel said:

"In retail, there is continued demand for good locations as evidenced by the increased occupancy levels in our properties and, in particular, there is strong demand in food and beverage. In central London, we have seen occupier demand increase further. This, combined with a constrained supply of high quality, technically resilient space, means our significant committed programme of speculative developments is well placed."



Strong sector back-drop continues which bodes well for other London-focused players.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 21/1/2014 08:02

Boom in London residential property market.

Daily Mail headline:-

'Strongest start to the year ever recorded': House prices soar in January as thousands of homeowners 'take their lives off hold'



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 20/1/2014 16:05

Now that Quintain PLC have apparently and quietly dropped the " Estates and Development" bit from their corporate name, their LSE ticker of QED looks strange.

It would appear that the LSE tickers of QTN or, even better, QP. are not taken.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[scburbs] 20/1/2014 10:20

Looks like a another good deal for the QED managed WELPUT, £60m to £90m in 3.5 years. QED may be due some performance fees from WELPUT.

"Indian developer to pay £90m for Midtown site to create 148 flats.

Indian developer Lodha is in talks to buy Schroders' West End of London Property Unit Trust's (WELPUT) New Court site on Carey Street ...

...

WELPUT, which is managed by Schroders and advised by Grafton Advisors, bought New Court out of Simon Halabi's White Tower portfolio in June 2010 for £60m."

Source: Property Week

[quepassa] 16/1/2014 08:18

Very strong Trading Update from Bovis Homes this morning.

Bodes well for Quintain and their build-out of residential units at Wembley.

Highly buoyant sector outlook from Bovis.

This is a self-explanatory extract from their statement:-

QUOTE

"The combined effect of the strong forward order book, the expected growth in active sales outlets and an improving average sales price will enable the Group to continue to drive revenue growth, assuming stable market conditions. With improving profit margins, the Group's profits and ROCE are both expected to show further strong improvement in 2014.

Commenting, David Ritchie, Chief Executive of Bovis Homes, said:

"2013 was another successful year for Bovis Homes. We delivered significant growth in profits and returns as a result of our continued strategy of growth through investment in high quality consented and strategic land. Our forward order book is in its best position for many years.

"With further increases in active sales outlets supported by ongoing assertive land buying, the Group is confident of its future prospects and ability to deliver further significant improvement in returns."

UNQUOTE


Increases in housing activity and growth in house prices are now evident across the board and should feed through to Quintain's consented property valuations.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[quepassa] 10/1/2014 11:27

London Designer Centre now passes the milestone of 1 million shoppers.

That's good. And many more of the remaining units have been taken up.

Article in the local rag refers:-



James Saunders, COO, says;-

"The year ahead will see the transformation continue as we focus on bringing exciting new attractions and improvements to the public spaces and construction begins on the new residential district located at the heart of Wembley Park."


Quintain need to hurry up and start advertising the LDO much more effectively.

They are recruiting for a dedicated LDO marketing manager and should not be shy to pay top dollar for a high calibre candidate. A mediocre salary would attract a mediocre candidate.


ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[r ball] 06/1/2014 17:38

BKG doing well today. ps: I'm a holder (having averaged up on four occasions).

[badtime] 06/1/2014 17:04

3rd time lucky then

[quepassa] 06/1/2014 16:28

The share price has already hit 100p twice in the last couple of weeks.

But both times has fallen back by a few pence.

The third assault on 100p looks imminent.

With the growing confidence of the housing market, such low interest rates on mortgages and savings rates, and the strong re-emergence of the first-time buyer, the back-drop for de-geared and re-aligned Quintain and its share price continue to look very favourable.

ALL IMO. DYOR.

QP

[alan@bj] 27/12/2013 16:29

Press tip coming??

[r ball] 27/12/2013 16:25

hmmm. not to sure what to make of this given that volumes are quite low .