Quadrise Share Discussion Threads

[911man] 23/6/2014 15:02

I actually play in the market that QED exited with the sale of the Sequel Portfolio. It wasn't a great portfolio, but the market was already moving when they sold and , unless they had a great deal for the money, why do it? It appears that Palace gained 40% on the portfolio in 6 months. If I was Quintain, I would be asking , how could the agents say this was a good deal in October 2013?

I am not bothered about the dividend. I know that it could help the SP, but it pails into insignificance besides such a bad sale. What were they thinking of? You don't reduce debt in a rising market. SIMPLES.

[quepassa] 23/6/2014 09:55

If you too think that,I rest my case.

Although I highly doubt That Quintain think of themselves as a single-asset company (Kingsbourne Hse, Aldermary, Asset Management, Quercus etc etc ).

Market perception of Quintain is a key driver of share price and Quintain just don't seem to be able to hit the right market chord and keep it there.

The market is what the market is. And it has voted with its feet since the recent results. That is an undeniable fact.

I have suggested many times that the lack of a dividend is a real downer on the share-price and a major influence on shareholders both existing and prospective. None of the great-and-the-good amongst the other posters on this bulletin board have proffered any other suggestion as to why there have been sellers at large recently since the results. Views please.

Having said that, on a discount to NAV basis, the share now looks very appealing.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[scburbs] 23/6/2014 09:28

QP,

Surely QED is perceived as a single asset company already?

[quepassa] 23/6/2014 09:23

The Palace results illustrate that even minnow Palace Capital realise the importance of paying a dividend.
Suggest that Rucker/James take a leaf out the book of Palace Chairman, Stanley Davis and Neil Sinclair MD and/or pay them a visit to learn how to do it. -i.e. increase the NAV and pay a dividend.
Quintain run the risk of becoming/being perceived as a single-asset company
( Wembley). I hope that Quintain do not take Songbird Estates ( Canary Wharf) as their role model. Quintain lauds its reduction of debt. Yes, that's good. But the Company is now under-geared in my view.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[scburbs] 23/6/2014 09:08

The QED shareholding is not material. The Palace Capital results just indicate that QED managed to exit at the bottom, but time to forget about that and focus on making money in Wembley.

I am more interested is happening with the £10.7m that QED invested in Albemarle Retail LLP which looks like a poor investment. In the annual accounts they made a £2.5m provision against that investment (albeit it has been generating income in the meantime). Difficult to think of anything more non-core than a loan/minority equity investment in a regional shopping centre portfolio. Looked a silly deal at the time designed to flatter AuM and now is a good time to try and exit this one.

[jaws6] 23/6/2014 08:45

qp
Thank you,will look later what stake is worth QED got there.

[quepassa] 23/6/2014 08:27

Palace Capital to which Quintain sold Sequel.

19th. June results. Massive NAV increase. Two dividends declared.




Quintain still hold stake in Palace.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[jaws6] 20/6/2014 09:42

AGM on 21/ July ,RNS out

[maddox] 19/6/2014 14:20

Hi QP,

I agree with your analysis but not with your conclusion that trading Quintain is a good idea - unless you have a crystal ball of course. You just have to accept that whilst Quintain has turned around a long-way in a short period - the goal of reinstating the dividend is some way off into the future.

With London property prices as they are the returns from accelerating the development of Wembley is far better use of their cash. The prospects for increased NAV will I suggest outweigh paying a nominal dividend in the short to medium term. If its income you want there are better options than QED at the moment.

Cheers Maddox

[911man] 19/6/2014 13:40

QP, nice to see you're still here, I was starting to panic (!). Despite the obvious lack of dividend (I now understand your stability argument!), I think there has been a change of investor(s) here and once completed, the share should continue it's progress. The taxation proposals on PRS may be a damper, but the need is there so hopefully government won't kill the golden goose.

[alan@bj] 19/6/2014 10:06

Very good post, QP. Many thanks.

[quepassa] 19/6/2014 09:49

I commented some time ago that in my view the only way (somewhat regrettably) to make real money on this share was by trading the share as - unlike most property companies- Quintain continue not to pay a dividend.

Quintain failed yet again to produce any dividend when their recent results were released. The Chairman has been saying for many years that they want to return to a dividend. Lots of words and good intentions here but embarrassingly no action yet, even after many years. When probed at the results presentation about timing of a reinstated dividend, the Chief Executive apparently replied with words to the effect that he would not like to predict when this would be. In my personal view, both of these are unacceptable.

The lack of dividend undermines the stability of the share and leads to exaggerated price volatility when other contrary market worries are to the fore, such as the Iraq crisis, the likely small increase in UK interest rates and concerns over London property prices.

Any investor who may or may not have sold/traded out of the share recently at a range of 105-110p will be content with their decision, given the recent big decline in Quintain's share price.

Having said that, a current price of circa 85p equates to a discount to NAV of a whopping and highly attractive 26%.

For certain investors, this may or may not be too good an opportunity not to pounce on. - Put another way, you can now buy something for 85p which cost 110p a few months ago. At a time when the Company has strengthened from a financial point-of-view, and NAV has increased.

Certain investors may or may not be moving from a thwarted strategy of buy-and-hold with the expectation of receiving a dividend, to a different strategy of "trading the share relative to its discount to NAV".

Investors can work out for themselves what a comfortable discount to NAV would be for a non-dividend paying, lowly-geared propco with good prospects and a consented London land-bank.

London property concerns are overdone as far as Quintain is concerned in my view. They are building relatively affordable flats which appeal to the enormous pent-up and wholly unsatisfied demand for London housing in the £300-400k range, not Mayfair flats or Bishop's Avenue mansions in the many £millions for flight money.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[maddox] 19/6/2014 07:08

Looks like we've picked up a shorter - an in-depth analysis of the 80p forecast share price will be interesting?

[trytotakeiteasy] 17/6/2014 13:34

this proving to be a right dog of a stock.... down to 80p?

[alan@bj] 09/6/2014 15:25

Excellent link Jaws6 - very impressive.

[jaws6] 09/6/2014 13:42

Good video by NIGEL from QED

hxxp://podcast.propertyweek.com/2014/06/06/listen-quintain-investment-guru-nigel-kempner-makes-good-deal/

[911man] 02/6/2014 14:01

No postings from QuePassa since 19th May. I said then, has he exited QED? I guess he has. Shame , as his postings were thoughtful.

[911man] 30/5/2014 12:35

I am happy to be out of student housing - past performance does not guarantee future returns and I feel (just an opinion) that the rental sector has some legs in it in the market tat Quintain will operate. Love the gearing and potential from here.

[maddox] 30/5/2014 12:05

Yes, good point and apartments are easier to value. Student accomodation has other plus points - it was the best performing property asset class through the credit crunch - and I'm very happy withthe performance of Unite Group that specialise in the segment.

[jl9] 30/5/2014 09:57

Agreed Maddox. I like the increased London focus. Also, apartments are a more flexible asset than study-bedrooms for students

[maddox] 30/5/2014 09:44

Yep JL9 and whilst some investors, judging by the share price decline, didn't like QED's exiting their student accommodation venture - they are moving into the young-professional rental market. Which should be an attractive segment of the market to cater to - obviously more affluent than students for one thing.

[maddox] 30/5/2014 09:37

opps, hair trigger!

[maddox] 30/5/2014 09:37

No, a London property is a far bigger commitment for one thing! If you buy an existing property you do not get the development gain. You do get the mortgage leverage, which works in your favour if prices continue to rise but can punish you severly if prices fall. Also, the property market tends to be long-cyclical and very difficult to get into at a reasonable price on the peaks and can be almost impossible to get out of on the dips. Thus there is a real liquidity issue to consider. Then there is the costs of entry, exit and on-going management costs, insurance etc. Interest rate volatility and voids.

So, all in all - buy to let ain't for me!

Cheers, Maddox

[jl9] 30/5/2014 09:35

Because of the fundamental demand-supply dynamic in London, what is bad for sales should be good for rentals. Quintain look ready to play it either way.

[stevenlondon3] 30/5/2014 09:28

QED's broker needs to compare the company with SE/London oriented house builders that stand at significant premiums to their book value.