Quadrise Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 30/7/2015 07:13

It is clear that the Quintain Board must have been in discussion with Lone Star for some time prior to yesterday's announcement.

Yet no RNS was ever issued to the effect of such discussions and a potential takeover which would have allowed shareholders to make their views known - and which would have allowed the market to form its own views about the true value of Quintain.

Never keen on takeover negotiations which go on behind closed doors which effectively shut shareholders out.

There is no way that big ticket and institutional shareholders should in my view roll over at the first shot and accept the low initial offer which has been tabled by deep-pocketed Lone Star.

A 7% premium over NAV is just too low.

It is interesting to look to the long drawn out and protracted battle by Songbird with the Qataris to increase the initial offer.

Shareholders would , in my view only, be well advised to push hard for a better offer.


ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[bscuit] 30/7/2015 00:45

I entered this party over a year ago and am up 85%. However I do think this is a lowball offer and it shouldn't take too much pushing by instis to get the price to 150. Let's hope they see it that way.

[r ball] 29/7/2015 21:53

Acceptance level low. the institutions may push for a higher price or just happy to get out. counteroffer likely

[r ball] 29/7/2015 21:33

how much will the FD who joined in May get?deal cheap. counter offer?

[quepassa] 29/7/2015 18:00

Excellent post. Concur.

A 7% premium to NAV is a very poor deal for shareholders and significantly undervalues Quintain.

A reasonable price is 20-25% over NAV.

Shareholders need in my opinion to hold their ground in order to send Quintain management a clear message to go back and negotiate a fairer offer for shareholders.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[winsome147] 29/7/2015 17:49

Getting Outline Planning is the easy bit. Detailed planning is guaranteed to be obtained once the detailed plans are ironed out with the local council planners.

Detailed planning lasts for 3 years but if you start the foundations of one of the buildings, ie, just a dig a few holes and pour in some token concrete, then the planning permission never expires.

They expect more planning decisions this Autumn which will bump up the NAV considerably.

I realistically expect a decent offer to be 145p. Premature to sell now. Low chance of deal falling through. High chance of a better offer from another party or by existing part if institutional holders vote no. Take a lesson from the Songbird Estates deal.

[shaf200] 29/7/2015 17:31

too many people unfortunately will be happy to accept 131p...

[davidosh] 29/7/2015 16:24

I suspect the planning consents are just a matter of putting the applications on the table and QED do not need to do that years in advance if they are not sure exactly what scale and size of units the market may want at that point in time. Planning consents are not forever so you tend to put them in when you are ready to start considering the actual build out in that part of the whole scheme.


Here is some comment from a broker...

Stiefel : Quintain has been the obvious bid target in the sector in our view for a while given its single asset focus and its wide discount to NAV (15% to current NAV using last night's closing price). Ever since the new management team came on board and started to tidy up the company, selling Greenwich and then iQ, our expectation was that either it would just work out the existing portfolio or that the company would be bid for. The cash offer of 131p is a fair offer in our view reflecting a 22% premium to the closing price of 107p last night and a 30% premium to the weighted average price over the six months to 28 July. It is only a 7.4% premium to the latest reported NAV of 122p and is broadly in line with our expected NAV estimate of 134p for March 2016. However, we do not believe the shares would have started trading at a premium rating near term given the longevity of the projects, the relatively low near-term NAV growth prospects compared with some of its London peers and its limited free cash flow/no dividend payout. Therefore whilst we will be sad to see Quintain leave the quoted sector, we believe this offer crystallises value at an early stage for shareholders.

[alan@bj] 29/7/2015 16:13

I've sold at 131p. If the deal falls apart the price will plummet. The only way it's going much higher is if another bidder turns up. I will be happy with the profit I've banked anyway.

[trytotakeiteasy] 29/7/2015 15:30

Huttonr - Liberum notes are PR puff on the part of Quintain more like.... as the company accepts the offer...

[maddox] 29/7/2015 12:41

I would have expected a rise to c.135p on the announcement of a reinstatement of the dividend. With both debt and financing sorted and with income rising, this could not be too far away.

[shaf200] 29/7/2015 12:23

well said QP... like I said i'll take 250p

[quepassa] 29/7/2015 12:15

Market showing 133p BID versus the OFFER price of 131p.

Looks like the market expects a higher price in due course.

The price reflects no worthwhile premium in my view for the enormous build-out upside potential of Quintain's Wembley land-bank, nor for their other interests such as Curzon Street Birmingham nor for the Surrey Salfords site.

It seems to me that the Institutional shareholders won't need much encouragement to send Quintain management packing with a flee in their ear for such a low-ball offer.

If management had paid a dividend like most of their peer-group, Quintain would not have been trading at anything like the recent Discount to NAV.

Fair value in my opinion for Quintain is a premium of 20-25% OVER THE NET ASSET VALUE of the Company. Not a premium based on yesterday's share price which has been held back by management's inability to pay a dividend.

I will be rejecting the offer and trust that other private and Institutional shareholders will consider doing the same on the basis that the offer SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUES the upside potential of Quintain and represents a derisory premium of just 7% or so to the March EPRA NAV.

Fair value in my view for Quintain is a premium of 20-25%+ over the EPRA NAV to compensate for the enormous future build-out potential of The Company against a strong UK economy hungry for new housing and an increasingly benign/favourable planning backdrop.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[winsome147] 29/7/2015 11:32

I wrote on here a few months ago what I thought the long term potential was. I think and hopa another bidder will come in at at least 150p. The price is now above 131p so the market obviously thinks another bidder will come.

Let's be realistic. It's not too difficult for other interested parties to come to a valuation of their own. It is a pure property play. If it is too cheap at 131p then someome else will step with a higher offer. If not, then its a fair price at this point in time. Its a much smaller company than Songbird was so there are plenty of parties around with deep enough pockets. If no one bids higher then we cannot grumble too much although I would have liked to hold for the long term.

[cszjrh2] 29/7/2015 11:26

Share price exceeding offer as people bet a counter bid or improved offer will come forward.

[kramch] 29/7/2015 10:27

Wembley is a developers gold mine, they have 4500 homes yet to build on c 80 acres around an iconic London site.
QED's NAV estimate for the end of this financial year is 133pps, and next year should be well over 150p.
I am amazed the directors agreeing to give the company away at this price just when their turnaround efforts are coming good.
I hope the institutions will look after their investors by rejecting a short term profit and not giving away one of the best capital growth opportunities I have seen in years.

K.

[davidosh] 29/7/2015 10:21

Whether I bought this as a puppy, as a flea ridden stray or as a Crufts prize poodle if I still happen to be the rightful owner having provided my capital as pet food for the last six years I now deserve a chance to get a fair return on my investment. It is the same whether I bought last decade or last Tuesday. I am the owner and directors are employed to obtain a fair price and act in good faith for the shareholders.

Look at the NAV in the last seven years

2009...121
2010...120
2011...116
2012...110
2013...104
2014...115
2015...122

The offer to shareholders is £1.31 at a point where the NAV is now increasing steadily and debt is at record low levels. Why do we need to sell ? With Wembley delivering on plan the NAV would be at £1.50 within two years and a steady income with which to pay a dividend too

[shaf200] 29/7/2015 10:16

Don't you worry this dog has come good for me... I've been holding from 40p...
Its a matter of squezzing the dog one last time!

[jl9] 29/7/2015 09:50

You've stuck with this dog, now you want compensating. That' not what this is about. This is an offer. An offer for a dog.

[shaf200] 29/7/2015 09:01

At 131 its a steal. Happy to let them go at 2.50.

[maddox] 29/7/2015 09:00

Totally agree with you Davidosh, this price is scandalous. Unbelievable!!

[quepassa] 29/7/2015 09:00

Major Shareholders Information - as per Quintain website this morning


Shareholder Name,Amount,% Holding


Norges Bank 46,089,481 8.76 %
Standard Life Investments 36,650,340 6.97
AXA Investment Managers SA 27,473,157 5.22
APG Asset Management N.V. 27,224,112 5.17
Morgan Stanley Invs Mgmt Ltd 26,377,835 5.01
Caledonia Investments PLC 26,300,036 5.00
BlackRock Inc 26,060,682 4.95
Third Avenue Management LLC 20,117,773 3.82
Legal & General Group PLC 15,933,832 3.03


According to the above, The Major Shareholders account for some 48% of the o/s share base of QED.

It would not surprise me if collectively, the Major Shareholders don't send Quintain management a collective message that they want/demand more and that the offer SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUES the future prospects and value of the Quintain Estate.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[maiken] 29/7/2015 08:57

There are no major shareholders on board with the bidder yet as far as I can see.The only irrevocable acceptances declared are the directors with their measly 0.3%.
All to play for still ! I'm certainly not selling my shares even though I could get 131p in the market as I write this.If this wasn't already my largest holding I'd be thinking of buying more.