Qinetiq Share Discussion Threads

[yf23_1] 15/2/2007 11:21

Chart still looks like a bull flag with the 205p placing providing the support level.

[simongn] 15/2/2007 10:51

"STOCKWATCH Qinetiq easier; Cazenove places 17.6 mln shares at 205p each -dealers"

From here:

[simongn] 11/2/2007 13:59

wad

Almost bought, but had to go out . . . ;-) think your addition will be good, can see a few gentle up days ahead. You never know, I just might buy a few more tomorrow . . . ;-)

[wad collector] 11/2/2007 12:53

Simon G - if we always follow the predictable market reaction ,we will miss the biggest gains (And I agree miss the biggest losses too).So into the breach...

[aspers] 09/2/2007 16:53

Held since floatation...even thru the drop to 160....dont like the sound of whats happening so have jumped off......that will be a sure sign for it to go up!!! good luck to you all that still hold!!!

[simongn] 09/2/2007 14:21

wad

"It seems hard to view the fundementals any differently , just because of a big sell, unless there is privileged knowledge."

and therein lies the issue, if there is privileged knowledge and this is why Carlyle have acted now then this must swing the risk/reward balance in a negative fashion ?

My heart says buy but my head says hold, you are a braver man than me, good luck.

[wiganer] 09/2/2007 13:58

Nice chart.

[wad collector] 09/2/2007 13:56

It seems hard to view the fundementals any differently , just because of a big sell, unless there is privileged knowledge.In my simple view of the markets , this implies , all other things being equal, it will be back up again before too long.Thus convinced , I have added a few more.

[simongn] 09/2/2007 12:08

From here:

"In response, Panmure Gordon today stuck with its 'sell' recommendation and
170 pence price target on QinetiQ and said the stock looks expensive, with the
UK government still a potential seller.

The broker noted the government continues to own about 19 pct but it is not
subject to any lock-up -- a clause that would prevent it from disposing of its
stake -- and it owns a golden share. It also pointed out that the government
sold its entire stakes in Rolls Royce Group and BAE Systems because it was
satisfied that the golden share offered sufficient protection to UK interests.

And Panmure Gordon said QinetiQ is protected from defence company bids
because one of its main jobs is to test other contractors' equipment for the
Ministry of Defence."

[simongn] 09/2/2007 11:17

mw

Yea, you could well be right, would make sense, thanks.

[via con] 09/2/2007 11:07

Wad,

I suspect costs would have caused them not to follow that tack, and if they had sold over a few weeks, I would imagine that the share price would have been fallen on such continual selling pressure of 67.7 million shares entering the market, resulting in a lower return for Carlyle.

It is normal, imo, that any company wishing to unload such an amount would place them rather than sell their shares into the open market.

[mw] 09/2/2007 10:46

SimonGN

Possibly Carlyle have sold the CEP Investments as well, which would account for the double volume.

[aphrodites] 09/2/2007 10:26

You can put your money on this deal having been in the pipe-line for some time and Merrils will have been preparing the ground to take the stock on their books.

Forget the Government's potential placing of stock causing the weakness from 220p. More like some interesting option and CFD plays on the back the stock being sold.

Undoubtably the Government will have ben approached to see if it wished to sell its stake at the same time. This could have led to a take-over.

More than likely the Government said no and hence the placing now.

If the placing has been a success the price could well move ahead quite quickly.

[simongn] 09/2/2007 10:12

Not sure it would have made that much of a difference, in fact it might have resulted in a bigger but more gradual fall over the weeks. Typical daily volume is around 1.5m so 67m over 10 days (2 weeks) would have increased volume by 4x. If it had been done over 4 weeks it would still have increased volume x2.

[wad collector] 09/2/2007 09:54

Curious that Carlyle didn't sell over a few weeks and cause less of a dip to their own gains.

[simongn] 09/2/2007 09:44

2 questions:

bearing in mind Carlyle have placed 67m shares why do we see double that indicated as sells ?

the price is rallying from it's initial drop first thing, if this rate continues it could recover the loss by lunchtime, is this a buying oportunity ?

[via con] 09/2/2007 09:34

FT MARKETS: Conjecture over Qinetiq rises after Carlyle puts its stake up for sale
By Neil Hume and Robert Orr
Qinetiq Group, the research company spun out of the Ministry of Defence, will be in focus this morning.

Its shares ended 0.5 per cent higher at 209¼p last night but could fall today as a large chunk of stock hits the market.

After the market closed last night, Carlyle, the company's venture capital backer, appointed Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan Cazenove to find buyers for its 10.3 per stake.

Traders said the 67.7m shares were likely to be placed at between 200p and 209.5p.

Rumours that either Carlyle or the UK government, which owns a further 19 per cent of Qinetiq, were looking to sell have been swirling for the past couple of weeks.

Traders said Carlyle's move was not surprising. Qinetiq shares, which listed at 200p a year ago, have rallied strongly since hitting a low of 160p in August.

The move by Carlyle to sell out will raise fears that the government will follow suit. However, a disposal by the government could prove controversial, because a Qinetiq-led consortium was recently awarded a 25-year contract to provide a services training programme for the armed services.

[via con] 09/2/2007 09:23

News that Carlye Group placed its 10.3 per cent stake in Qinetiq at between 200p and 209p per share sent the defence contractor's stock down 2 per cent to 204¾p

FT.com

[hawks11] 09/2/2007 08:21

Causing a minor blip was : "Banks Placing 67.8M Qinetiq Shares For Carlyle." That should be resolved by now hopefully.

[hollerich1] 09/2/2007 08:08

SimonGn-

i have also try to serch and send you the link but could not find it, but 100% positive that i saw and read the news, as you suggested i will give QQ a call this morning.

[mw] 09/2/2007 07:26

I guess like many venture capitalists they want to move on to pastures new, at least for directly invested money.
Whether MoD will follow suit depends on how desperate they are for the money, or whether, hopefully like the CEP fund, they are in for the longer term.

[gunter guil] 08/2/2007 22:38

well the carlyle sale is official now:

[simongn] 08/2/2007 17:14

via con

Sure, I take your point about Bush but it's speculation that some of it might come QQ.'s way and it's quite a long term thing.

It was the "Qinetic in consortium" "$20 billion bid" bit that I was mainly interested in. Perhaps I'll give Qinetiq a call tomorrow and ask them ;-)

[via con] 08/2/2007 16:58

SimonGn

Published: January 26 2007 09:10 FT
"In the mid-caps, Qinetiq dropped 2.2 per cent to 205p amid talk that its two largest shareholders - the UK government and Carlyle, the private equity company - were looking to sell their holdings in the defence technology group."



As for the American bit, I found nothing either, but as I posted a couple of days ago , Bush has presented a budget that includes a large increase in "defense" spending, which if passed, should bode well for qq´s arm at least. American jobs getting American work so to speak.

[simongn] 08/2/2007 15:45

BobP:

DYOR . . . If I was in your position I would be looking for something with a higher dividend yeild, eg. LloydsTSB you don't need the price to rise much then to make up the rest of your 10% to 15%

You might also look at something like KGP (Kingspan) they make insulation, demand for insulation product is set to increase steadily in the comming years as the drive for lower CO2 footprints gains pace. (I don't hold KGP)

HOLLERICH1:

Can't find anything on FT.com, had a trawle via Google too and drawn a blank, if you can provide a link or some more (searchable) info I would appreciate it. I hope you are indeed correct, some concrete info would help me decide if I should hold or sell.