Provident Financial Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 15/9/2022 09:06

PFG were demoted from the FTSE250 THIS MONTH.

[jimbobs147] 25/8/2022 23:00

Is that guaranteed? What price would it need to reach to retain its FTSE250 status?

[salpara111] 25/8/2022 19:11

Being sold down as it will be demoted from FTSE 250 at the next review on 31st August.

[theborn] 25/8/2022 16:58

Div was 5p and went ex div last week, so nothing to do with that.

Share price drop is down to management being perceived as value destructive.

Balance Sheet NAV is >£600m. Current market value priced on share price is £440m. Shre is trading at a 27% discount to book value. That's pretty much unheard of. Long term view of the management is they are value destructive to the business and incompetent.

Valued on book value and no hope value the shares should be trading at £2.40. Under a moderate management team >£3.00.

It's appalling. Summed up by releasing mid-year results which fell way short of market consensus and professing to be 'delighted' by the performance.

They need a shake up. I hope a white knight rides in for a takeover giventhe current discount to NAV.

[jimbobs147] 25/8/2022 11:37

Drop caused by share going ex-div?

[theborn] 25/8/2022 10:32

Management must go - embarrasment.

[borg45] 05/8/2022 15:52

Obviously a big buy is waiting to be filled

[blackbear] 28/7/2022 10:28

Takeover target cheap as chips, could have a 300mln surplus maybe a special dividend?

[wad collector] 27/7/2022 21:07

Get out of here ramper.


Interims are sadly disappointing again, the usual sorts of words, bit of a contrast to it's former partner IPF today.
Yes the divi of 5p is being paid , and yes good to see the potential investigation has closed and the turnover is up but... the PBT is down , even on last yr. Though the balance sheet is rather difficult to read as it offers various options depending on how the various previous losses are read. As was the case last year. And the year before.

[zxie] 27/7/2022 08:35

INSP shares jump soon

[theborn] 28/6/2022 14:41

A colleague who is also an investor in PFG asked some questions to PFG via email to be addressed at the AGM tomorrow. PFG kindly provided responses to these. Obviously, none of this information is market sensitive but given some responses address points often raised on these PFG notice boards I thought I would share for the benefit of fellow shareholders:

q1) Appreciate purpose of AGM is to approve or reject specific actions. As some of those actions relate to dilution of the share base the current shareprice, about to dip below £2, cannot be ignored. I would appreciate an indication from management as to performance during the current year and their view on what must be done to address the falling share price. - a1) We published our first quarter update in May, covering the trading period from January to March, and we plan to release our half year results at the end of July this year. This will cover the period from Jan to June 2022. I am unable to provide a more wholesome trading update outside of those updates. However, you will see in our first quarter update that asset quality across the business remained high and the underlying credit demand from customers was strong. We have no current plans to dilute the share base. The Board and I share your disappointment with the share price. However, with such an uncertain economic backdrop at present in the UK and high levels of volatility across equity markets, we must focus on making sure that we support our customers by providing them with the assistance they need and managing the things within our control.

q2) Linked to above, shareholders who have stuck with PFG deserve to know what management expectations actually are for this year and future years. Trading updates often refer to 'in line with management expectations' but I've never seen these expectations explicitly set out at the start of the year? I appreciate analysts have their views, but if PFG are linking management views to a particular analyst consensus this needs to be made clear. I want to know what EPS and divi target is for current year and 3 year look ahead. - a2) I am unable to provide you with what our internal budget and forecast models say about the financial direction of the company. References to “in-line with management’s expectations” are designed to provide shareholders and the market with an element of comfort that the external perception of how we are performing as a business matches that of the stock market.

q3) Update on provisioning and portfolio performance in the current high inflationary environment. - a3) Please refer to our first quarter trading statement on our website for the most up to date information.

q4) Update on the personal loan pilot which has been referred to a lot in past 18 months. Is this now delivering positive returns?- a4) As stated within our first quarter trading statement, the personal loans pilot phase will be assessed at the end of June and an update will be provided end July.

[theborn] 01/6/2022 14:58

I do sympathise with what you are saying, as the 'in-line with management expectations' does indeed get reeled out a lot. And there probably is still a lack of trust around events of the past few years.

We'll know more with the half year update which should arrive in c.6 weeks.

However, my argument is based on the current share price in relation to how the company sits today. This share was trading at £5+ even in the peak of the PFG meltdown and is today trading at 250p despite an analyst consensus of FY22 earnings of c.40p ps. I'm not saying this is a £10 share today, but if the price started with a £4 there won't be too many people arguing the financials don't support it.

It's undervalued, and in my opinion significantly.

[1cutandrun] 01/6/2022 13:40

I've read the recent posts on here and have to say this. Please read my post of 11th Aug 2021. I have said many times that PFG are really experienced at writing updates and reports. Positives are highlighted and negatives are either left out or glossed over, so you have to take note what is not mentioned. The 19th May update, is it really good?
In-line with management's expectation. Can someone please tell me what their expectation is on customer growth? New customer bookings increased by approximately 25% year-on-year, this sounds good, a positive, but did the customer base increase, I doubt it as they haven't mentioned it and Vanquis keep losing customers. In their last report they stated they had cleared out the dead wood as an excuse to cover up the customer loss. Vanquis has always had dead wood and they still lost customers. I stated in my post 11th Aug, if they don't increase their customer base they will have big problems and that's exactly what has happened. Yes they can make profit and pay a dividend but they need customer growth for the company to expand and that is not the case at the moment.

[theborn] 01/6/2022 09:49

This misalignment to market is starting to become a farce. If you plot a simple 6 month chart comparing Ftse to PFG, PFG is currently down 30% and ftse is up 7%. That's effectively a 40% fall vs market despite positive trading updates and buy ratings and pricing upgrades. Algos keep hammering this share. It's due a huge catch up. It has to be due in my opinion.

[scemer] 19/5/2022 17:25

Have to agree theborn we'll tidy business now going forward all to play for expect rising dividends and share price

[theborn] 19/5/2022 09:38

Positive trading update this morning.
Once again the overall market as dragged pfg down.
£5+ share trading at £2.30, thanks to algo trading.
Shore Cap reiterated buy with target >£5.
Barclays overweight with target £4.20.
Something has to happen on this share soon IMO.

[don777] 11/5/2022 11:53

Aberforth Partners LLP inceased holdings.
very wise and timing very well.

[gregsc] 07/4/2022 13:01

12p dividend. ex date 21st April, payment 20th May.

[wad collector] 29/3/2022 11:15

Glad my pessimism was ill founded, almost up to a tenth of my buying price now!

[wad collector] 04/3/2022 16:28

Oh dear , Prov share price plunging , this looks familiar....

[1cutandrun] 27/1/2022 10:48

Hello my friend. Good to hear from you. I think NSF is a dinosaur. I was talking to someone I know who works for Loans at Home which is part of NSF. Apparently quite a few ex PPC employees are now working for this company. I asked, how were they managing to collect payments from the doorstep. The reply was, I don't collect payment at the customers house, I phone them for payments as they all have cards. The whole point of doorstep lending is face to face contact. Looks like this business is a dying breed. The FCA and compliance is a killer for a company. Prudential found this out with the SIB. Execution only applications were introduced, to stop being fined. Apply online, no advice given and therefore, no mis selling. Having reps working for a company leaves them open to any accusations made by customers. Also, reps carrying money is a health and safety issue. In a nutshell, the coffin lid is open for doorstep lending and reps will eventually be buried. PFG had no option and had to close PPC down for these reasons.

[superiorshares] 17/1/2022 03:32

Icutandrun are you still about ?
It's ...SS... here . Was hoping to get your opinion now on NSF
Regards to you .

[bbarry8] 13/1/2022 22:08

Should be, it's cheap. Think clean accounts, ex CCD, will draw interest again. Cash machine.