Provident Financial Share Discussion Threads

[fenners66] 26/8/2020 11:30

“Since the end of June, some encouraging signs of increased activity levels in our markets can be seen, with improving customer demand and spending trends evident.”

That bit was easy.
You lock down the people and they save some money.
Shut the shops and they cannot get their spending fix.
When the shops re-opened in July there were queues.

I do not see the same queues now. Now its just people having to wait to go into banks ...

(to see how much they can borrow perhaps ! )

[encarter] 26/8/2020 11:19

Yep I think about half that and many of those will walk straight in to other jobs that have been created through the new normal. I think this crisis is over. It now depends when the next one arises.

[discodave45] 26/8/2020 11:16

Agree things have yet to fully materialise in terms of job losses, but PFG have stated already (with unemployment already increasing) that: "Since the end of June, some encouraging signs of increased activity levels in our markets can be seen, with improving customer demand and spending trends evident."They seem to do pretty well during recessions.

[discodave45] 26/8/2020 11:11

Current unemployment is about 3.9% (1.34m). Some forecast this may double for 2020 (Https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2020/06/uk-economic-outlook-june-2020.pdf), but as ever nobody knows.That aside during the financial crash PFG share price was £4 but continually rose for 7 or so years and hit £30.......so did more than okay post economic downturn and I wouldnt mind that sort of return again!.

[fenners66] 26/8/2020 11:11

I get that Dave - for sure if they kitchen sink the provisions - enough for the whole year and beyond , in the first 6 months then things could get better.

However I thought there was a mechanical nature to the provisions - thus you miss payments ....etc

So of course that could mean that provisions later come back as not required.

However I do expect a raft of redundancies after furlough ends.

There is an article on the BBC today saying that there are NO plans to return millions of staff to the office.
The knock on would be all those businesses which rely on office workers say for food or shops, transport which have been hanging on with furlough cash that just give up.

One area of growth - the Unemployment section of DWP...

[babycheeky] 26/8/2020 10:51

why do you want to hide from your past ?

[babycheeky] 26/8/2020 10:51

discodave4 why do you deny this is you ?

[discodave45] 26/8/2020 10:50

Post 3885Wouldn't argue with what you are saying about Moneybarn, but again their payment holiday impacted a large percentage of receivables, and I'm looking once again that this is not truly reflective of the underlying business due to C19 and lockdown.Appreciate can't be blinkered and go "oh well all the negatives are down to C19 so forget them", but do think anybody reporting numbers better than expected will hopefully also do better when things improve.

[fenners66] 26/8/2020 10:48

You think the 750k?

[babycheeky] 26/8/2020 10:39

You have a long history that is not admirable discodave4.

[babycheeky] 26/8/2020 10:38

So dave are you going to continue to pretend you are not discdave4 ?

[discodave45] 26/8/2020 10:36

Thanks. Re post 3883:My take is the underlying PBT excluding provisions for C19. Glass half full we are not going to see a full lockdown again and a one off event (albeit horrendous).Tightening credit criteria would be an FCA expectation IMO hence the majority of sub prime lenders did exactly the same.Don't think the annualised impairment rate change can be correlated to payment holidays as that was not implemented for the entirety of H1.As for post furlough - who knows!.Still happy to hold these for the time being anyway.

[fenners66] 26/8/2020 10:35

encarter - when furlough ends there is likely going to be another 750,000 redundancies.

[fenners66] 26/8/2020 10:34

"CCD reported a loss before tax (LBT) of GBP37.6m (H1'19 LBT: GBP15.1m) "

But receivables were down about £100m

What is the point of lending to lose money ?

I confess I have only read the first section and not all the way through - maybe there is some better news further down.

[babycheeky] 26/8/2020 10:33

Nortic007 I have as much right to post as you do.

[babycheeky] 26/8/2020 10:32

Nortic007 reported me LOL
For what ?
You will be laughed at.

[babycheeky] 26/8/2020 10:30

Nortic007 you'll be doing what for me ?

[nortic 007] 26/8/2020 10:30

DD45 and I'm afraid Babycheek you've both been reported.

[fenners66] 26/8/2020 10:30

"Moneybarn delivered PBT for the period of GBP2.4m (H1'19: GBP15.5m (1) ) ahead of management plans created post-lockdown but down year-on-year. The increase in Moneybarn's revenue year-on-year was offset by increased impairment.

-- Moneybarn remained open to new business throughout April, at a time when many of its competitors stopped lending, and has improved its market share, as well as credit quality, as a result. "


WTF ?!

Moneybarn has improved credit quality ??

Increased revenue led to increased impairment and lost £13.1m of the previous year's profit !!

The competition stopped lending..... and did not just give away an extra £13m !

[encarter] 26/8/2020 10:28

When furlough ends then everyone that I know will be going back to work as usual. Nothing much will change.

[fenners66] 26/8/2020 10:26

-- The annualised impairment rate at the end of June of 18.0% (H1'19: 14.9%) reflected additional first half impairment of approximately GBP70m "

So payment holiday - which is new - on 4% of balances , which is supposed to be good, led to an increase in bad debt provisions of 3.1%

So when Furlough ends are we expecting something in excess of the additional £70m?

[nortic 007] 26/8/2020 10:19

Babycheek you've made your point re DD45 but if this continues then I'll be doing the same for you...... KINDLY PLEASE STOP.

[fenners66] 26/8/2020 10:18

Just had a flick through the results ,

down about £113m on last year and some are saying "great" ?

I get that the results may not be as bad as expected but they are awful !

Yet to see where the happy opinion comes from.

They say that they tightened the criteria for lending to new customers, but that surely means the previous criteria will have shortcomings which will flow through.

Furlough scheme ending could be a decisive event - what will collections and arrears be like after that ?