Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[cyan] 09/4/2019 15:26

Canaccord today; "BUY" Old target 145p ; New target 140p

[marvinridesagain] 09/4/2019 14:33

Knock Knock, anybody here?

Share price manipulation at its best, common Jabba sort it, back to your lazy ways again I see.

[marvinridesagain] 09/4/2019 11:27

Commodity currencies propelled by crude oil price rally

APART FROM PMO

[s34icknote] 09/4/2019 10:11

Goldman sucks again !Sicknote

[binarypilot] 09/4/2019 09:42

Dont stop posting Marvin.

I'm a holder and like your posts.

:)

[steve73] 09/4/2019 09:38

whisky - thanks, maybe I'm mistaken on TEN then..
btw, if you read the SL environmental impact assessment (PMO Website early last year, IIRC) it stated 42 months from FID to F-oil... I would expect Zama to be about the same.. (you really can't do things much quicker than that)

[whiskeyinthejar] 09/4/2019 09:00

Steve in their annual report there's an item "Operating lease expense for the TEN FPSO" for 2017, but nada for 2018? Im not up on TLW either.

Lee, I may be too optimistic on a partner, we'll see. I was wondering same thing about 3.5 years. RKH says 3.5 years, in PMO timelines it says SL will be same year as Zama.

We won't be twiddling thumbs waiting for SL though.

Anyway, I need to go out for bit now.

[johnwise] 09/4/2019 08:44

Barclays report points to five signs offshore is recovering

Five signs that the offshore oil and gas industry is recovering are starting to become clearer, with 2019 seen as a transition year and with offshore embarking on a multiyear trajectory starting in 2020. These were among the findings in a recent research report from Barclays.

The first sign of recovery is that offshore exploration activity and spending is on the rise. Examples abound of major oil companies increasing their exploration activity and spending.

More

[rationaleee] 09/4/2019 08:35

Whiskey - Cheers. My guess is final SL partners might look something like PMO-50%, New Partner-30%, RKH-20%. Still a long way to go for FID and first oil... 3.5 years from FID sounds quite long when compared with Zamas shallow water dev. time of c.1.5 to 2 years..

[steve73] 09/4/2019 08:19

Whisky.. I think TEN uses a "bought & paid for" FPSO, whereas SL are planning on a long lease. Hence the big CAPEX difference.. but it's been a long time since I was in TLW, and my memory is fading.

[johnwise] 09/4/2019 08:18

KUWAIT, 9th April, 2019 (WAM) -- The price of Kuwaiti oil went up US$1.44 to stand at US$70.68 per barrel (pb) on Monday, comparing to US$69.24 pb last Friday, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said Tuesday.

[whiskeyinthejar] 09/4/2019 08:06

I just googled this Falklands Oil Tax guide. Pretty much all costs seem deductible.

But Im a tax idiot, not a tax expert.



"3.1 Depreciation allowances
The principle tax incentives unique to the oil and gas industry are the availability of 100% depreciation allowances for exploration and appraisal and intangible drilling costs, as set out in section 2.4"

-Opex is deductible ?
"2.4 Deductions and allowances
General deductions
In calculating taxable income, general operational and administrative costs of a revenue nature are usually deductible in full as incurred against the profits of the ring-fence trade."

-Exploration is deductible ?
"Exploration and pre-trade expenditure
Relief is generally given for all exploration and appraisal expenditure, either as a trading expense or depreciation allowances. However, relief is generally only available once the company has commenced a ring-fence trade."

-Depreciation is deductible ?
"Depreciation allowance (tax depreciation) rules for companies involved in upstream petroleum activities are distinct from those applying to other activities. Allowances are available for capital expenditure as follows:
• 100% allowance for exploration and appraisal costs
• 100% allowance for intangible drilling costs
• 25% annual writing down allowance for plant and machinery costs (other than costs falling to be exploration and
appraisal costs as above)
Where capital expenditure is incurred prior to the commencement of a ring-fence trade, such expenditure is deemed incurred on the day the ring-fence trade commences."

[manics] 09/4/2019 07:57

rationaleee: I do not. The UBS analyst is Amy Wong, she's been there nearly 9 years.



You can contact her here:


I've reached out to analysts before. Sometimes they come back, rarely. Paid research is an industry which over the last 10 years has receded into the toilet, so they're not as forthcoming as they once were.

[whiskeyinthejar] 09/4/2019 07:48

Lee, just comparing total project costs:

TEN project cost =$5 Billion
Sea Lion phase one = $1.5 Billion

The max capacity for both projects is 80k bopd to service that debt.

I believe opex for TEN is less, but SL opex is only $15/barrel and SL has other advantages -

- Assistance from UK government in form of export finance for SL should mean debt is cheap for SL.
- I believe development costs and depreciation are tax deductible under Falklands tax costs.
-I still think Premier will announce a partner to carry costs. Durrant said recently said that partner would not be coming forward until after export finance is announced.

Anyway, lots of other projects, maybe cheaper or sunnier weather, but IMO that doesn't detract from fact SL is excellent project. But DYOR.

[steve73] 09/4/2019 07:31

And another...

Oil prices spike to 5-month high as military conflict in Libya escalates.

[johnwise] 09/4/2019 07:20

Goldman Sachs hikes oil price forecast

GS bumps its Q2 forecast for Brent to 72.50 / barrel. The firm's previous forecast was $65.

[johnwise] 09/4/2019 07:17

US Sanctions, Libyan Crisis Push Oil Price to $70

Ejiofor Alike with agency reports

United States’ sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, fighting in Libya and production cuts led by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) yesterday pushed crude oil price to a five-month high of $70 per barrel, as expectations of tighter global supply persist.

[rationaleee] 08/4/2019 22:17

Cheers Lager. Just trying to estimate what sort of net cash flow post tax SL field could generate at $68/bbl if compared against TLWs TEN/Jubilee fields. I know its not a like for like comparison, given TLW fields low cost, etc. but assuming (big assumption) the attractive fiscal regime in FL is attractive than Gha. and sort of offsets a bit of the higher cost production vs TLW, can operating cash flows be extrapolated and can they be comparable?

TENs 30.4kbopd at $68/bbl produced c.$440mn net operating cash flow for TLW in 2018 (34% of group prod. x Total Group Op. CF). How much could the net operating cash flow for 30.5kbopd of SL oil at a similar oil price be? Just trying to come up with an estimate of the type of net FCF SL could generate... POST all taxes inc. UK...and comparison of op. CF for 30kbpd of TEN vs SL field (just as an exercise)... unless someone here or at RKH has already estimated a net CF number at $65/bbl or so, given opex, capex, etc. roughly known for SL?

[leoneobull] 08/4/2019 21:48

Big rise at enq today

[lageraemia] 08/4/2019 21:31

Hi Lee

My understanding is that SL would not be offsetable against UK taxation losses, but I understand the combined tax and royalty tax in the Falklands is amongst the lowest in the world at 26% ish (if my memory serves me correctly).

Hence the supposed strategy of acquiring producing assets in the North Sea along with Catcher and what's left of Solan can run down that tax loss down on its own.

[rationaleee] 08/4/2019 19:27

manics - Do you have the full UBS note? That snap has been everywhere on twitter,etc but no link to the full report could be found...?

Whiskey - A question on SL - given FL is an overseas territory would the SL cash flows be tax advantaged as in NS i.e. does the tax losses pool can be used against the SL cash flows to get similar high margin barrels as in North Sea when SL starts producing?

[johnwise] 08/4/2019 18:14

Working class Americans get jobs — British and Canadians get a carbon tax

Ezra Levant
Video


VIDEO
The truth about global warming