Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[marvinridesagain] 07/4/2019 18:28

So tell us all, what would happen if the Argy Bargy's invaded again?

Its a future possibility, suppose they started sneaky terror attacks on the newly formed rigs?

Nope, very high risk SL and needs moving on to invest in Mexico.

Also sell on Jabbas disaster, Solan on Ebay for £5, around the same yearly profit calcs.

[marvinridesagain] 07/4/2019 18:25

Falklands:

Average Weather in Stanley Falkland Islands. In Stanley, the summers are cold, the winters are very cold, and it is extremely windy and mostly cloudy year round. Over the course of the year, the temperature typically varies from 36°F to 56°F

[seangwhite] 07/4/2019 13:16

Any hint of SL having an entity come in with finance would see the share price of PMO rise as the project continues to raise the fear of more debt which as we all know caused serious issues in the recent past.

[lageraemia] 06/4/2019 23:56

Sealion in closer to the equator than the North Sea. The water is no deeper and the weather's no worse. It's also closer to China and India.....

Just Sayin'

[seangwhite] 06/4/2019 21:35

Let's face it if POO goes over $70 for the next few months we will have PMO trending higher. Zama is a wild card which if it goes well may lead to a few looking to see whether it cheaper to buy PMO outright rather than its share of Zama.SL is best left on the back burner!

[marvinridesagain] 06/4/2019 18:24

We have only just had a sneaky rights issue(Warrants), so why should OUR assets be watered down yet again just because Jabba cant reduce debt fast enough for some?

[nav_mike] 06/4/2019 12:40

Not tempted to exit yet, as I think we could run up to 130ish if Brent holds over $70

Should we get to those sort of levels however, I would certainly re-evaluate if for no other reason, PMO might be tempted by a fund raise

If they could get a rights issue away at £1 or over, they might just go for it as TLW did.

Would accelerate the debt repayment, save on interest costs (which are hefty) and perhaps give a war chest for future asset acquisitions.

[rationaleee] 06/4/2019 09:14

sean , lager - agree there is an issue with the light oil but that has been there since start of 2018... Despite that US pumped +2mbpd YOY, even exports are roughly double from this time last year. Even if US refinery system can't handle the light oil quality, the worlds refinery system can still accommodate it.

The barrel of shale oil is similar to a barrel of oil produced elsewhere,the difference is in yields the refineries might obtain via them. Pricing of one would affect the other and hence excess or lack of supply of one type (light, heavy, etc.) can pull/push the price of another.

For Shale producers, despite all the warnings last year of operating within cash flow, too much debt, etc., look at their production growth in red in the below link.

The current well completion, trucking activity and the flaring satellite imagery in Permian/Texas says it all... about what sort of production would be coming to market. These guys are the reason why the booms and busts will be fast and short in oil and oil stocks, turning off the Institutional holders who prefer to have long term holding timeframes. That's the reason why weighting of oil/energy stocks as a % of total S&P is at the lowest ever.

[steve73] 06/4/2019 02:48

Link for the AR below (for those unable to find it on the PMO website....), although it does appear to be corrupted - at least when I download it.



ref. Marge's post 421.. yes it does look as if something leaked...

$70+ oil held over the weekend & world events should bode well for us on Monday - which is also start of the new tax year so could see some fresh money coming in via ISA's....

Be especially good if it mirror's last year's rise 80-130 in a few short weeks..... might we be so bold as to suggest 100-160 this year (as long as someone amputates Trump's thumbs..)

[marunam2] 06/4/2019 00:59

The debts carried by some shale companies is huge, I mean unsustainable , but like the toxic mortgage disaster , it’s being ignored .

Look at Wall Street Journal articles re shale debt and how they calculate break even costs, ceo’s and cfo’s openly lying about it.
Shale will have its time when poo drop and it won’t sustain a lot of those companies whose real costs are too high.

[lageraemia] 05/4/2019 21:41

I agree Sean and Lee

I've had a good week punting on POO and just closed out.

I think $70 Brent is a pause/consolidate point for the reasons above.

If you're into podcasts, check out the Oil and Gas Global Network. It's VERY US shale centric and its fascinating. They are REALLY short of trained engineers and data analysts out there. Gog knows how much they'd be pumping if they were fully staffed. They are also seeing reduced decline rates in newer wells. But as you say, they people pumping in the capital aren't really getting a return.

Just like the goldrush, its the guy selling shovels making the money......Midland Texas, the 'capital' of the Permian is a boom town with $500 Premier Inn type hotels and £10 per pint bars.

I think it will provide a balance to the market, but even if they CAN pipeline it out of there, the oil's too light and sweet for petrochemicals.

[seangwhite] 05/4/2019 21:29

Good rational in the post. The problem with the theory is that the more the shale companies pump the more they seem to dissapate their investors money. There seems to be a view that to keep these guys banks and investors must keep seeing losses going higher. The next few months could see a tussle and don't forget most shale is light oil in a constrained areas for exporting.Let's hope for a stable POO for all parties concerned.GLTA

[rationaleee] 05/4/2019 20:22

Looking at all the posts and sentiment on this board as well as on lse today - it seems like an initial contra indicator. Could it be self-assured hubris - congratulating oneself for how smart we are? Who knows.

Over the past 3 years, it has become clear, the faster oil goes up, even faster it loses all the gains (maybe twice as fast) and then some more. And so do the oil stocks including us.

$75/bbl is the pain threshold for most consumers, not to mention T admin. After it breaches that level, almost everyone starts hurting, worst of all, an inefficient market player goes crazy about pumping oil out of the ground. Because of this market player we could well see a repeat of the oil crash of Q4 last year. This market player is none other than the Shale oil drillers (now even all the Majors have jumped into the Shale patch with both their feet in, so even more scarier).

Shale oil has changed the oil market turning it into fast moving booms and busts. Too volatile. Most who held PMO continously over the past 3 years can attest to that. We have gone from 40s to £1 to back to 40s to £1.45 and back to 55p and now...

The share price after all is a function of oil price. The Oct. crash has proved that if oil price breaches $75/bbl, the upside is limited as compared to the downside... not just because of the consumers but mainly because of the Shale players behavior to higher oil price. If we don't take the profit, someone else will, rings true in the past 3 years up and down behavior of oil and our price...

Today, Shale drillers added another 20 or so oil rigs to the Rig count, a sign of things to come for oil price again?

Imagine what would be state of the oil market, if there was no IR sanctions and Venezuela, Libya back in the oil market. There is absolutely no space in the market when you look at the following chart...

Art Bermans following chart summarises the effect of Shale oil on price when compared to OPEC, etc... Looking at this chart, its so scary the rise of these shale players..

"Increase in U.S. production was main factor in 2014 & 2018 oil-price collapses. U.S. responsible for approximately 50% of liquids growth among other top producers both in 2014 & 2018."

[duckdown] 05/4/2019 20:03

A break of 100p should see 120p follow soon after

[s34icknote] 05/4/2019 19:57

Brent now above 70 dollars Looking good for Monday Sicknote

[marvinridesagain] 05/4/2019 18:35

Yep, amazing result :)

But just goes to show how insider info was leaked at 14:00 to allow some to get in before close.

Monday will be a good blue day for sure

[lageraemia] 05/4/2019 18:32

Oh......they dropped an RNS at 5:30pm with the annual financial report!

Anyone had a chance to loos for new details?