Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[johnwise] 03/4/2019 08:59

Oil price hits 2019 peak as Trump moots new sanctions against Iran

Oil prices reached a 2019 high today as traders worry over the stability of supplies from Iran and Venezuela.

[colebrooke] 03/4/2019 08:52

Brent Oil at $70/bbl UBS Research Note base case target £1.70

[wrestlingmad] 03/4/2019 08:52

Well predicted CI.

[lageraemia] 03/4/2019 08:50

Hi. We're just off the the races right now......

[adg] 03/4/2019 08:45

100p gone !

[steve73] 03/4/2019 08:26

sicknote... I'm tempted to place an order to buy 10 shares at a quid.. just to claim that.... But I'm pretty sure that my broker would manage to get a better deal.. LOL.

[johnwise] 03/4/2019 08:13

Oil price hits 2019 high, Brent nears $70

Russia yet to meet Opec+ production-cutting target, output declined to 11.3 million bpd in March

Oil prices on Tuesday hit their highest level so far in 2019,

[chinese investor] 03/4/2019 08:12

100p Imminent !

[s34icknote] 03/4/2019 08:04

Who's gonna be first to pay a pound competition !Sicknote

[seangwhite] 03/4/2019 07:45

$70 looks likely today. Wonder if Donald will tweet about it or is the Mueller and golf cheating issues taking up too much of his bandwidth

[chinese investor] 03/4/2019 07:42

100p Soon !

[eodfire] 03/4/2019 07:22

£1 today, good luck all holders.

[steve73] 03/4/2019 04:00

whisky - great analogy...using your rope.

btw, nowadays (i.e. with high compression engines and no use of lead additive to "boost" the octane) light crudes need much more treatment (reforming) to make it suitable for gasoline. Diesel fuels, OTOH, are usually straight-run with just desulphurization required. Waxy crudes tend to make for good cracker feedstocks (which generate reasonable quality gasoline, and diesel with no further treatments). But it's a very complex subject... not easy to summarize in a few lines.

But re. potential value of SL crude. You need only consider that Kraken sends its very heavy crude to the US gulf coast. They wouldn't do this if the European markets offered a better price, and from the FI, the US gulf is much closer than European (or Asian) markets and so should also get a better price than might otherwise be expected.

Remember that heavier crudes actually contain more energy per barrel, and so the discounts are often negated. But sulphur content is more critical, where the cost of removing (and then disposing of) the sulphur causes a bigger discount (and more so in the future with the changes to the IMO fuel regulations.)

>>>>>>>>.

rats, thanks for the link to the RKH Sealion presentation... I'd expect things have moved on a little since then, but it's a good starting point, and very useful info.

[whiskeyinthejar] 03/4/2019 00:50

Lee, Arab Heavy is reasonable comparison. It has API of 27.7. A bit heavier than Sea Lion (API 29). And a bit more sour (sulfur) than Sea Lion.

It was trading at $67.80 about 17 hours ago.



But I'd wager, opec could cut heavy oil production and push up the price of Arab Heavy and nobody would fill that gap.

lager, I don't think shale is good for gasoline. You want medium oil for that. wti has API of 39.6 and that's light. But most oil produced in lower 48 states has api over 40. Not even fit for wti! Shale is VERY light. Morgan Stanley report I saw reckons global demand for that sort of light oil is currently only 6 million bopd.

So, as you say main thing is that Sea Lion is anything other than very light oil.

Importantly I think, it's fairly easy to convert heavy oil to light, but rather difficult to convert light oil to heavy. An analogy is chemically cutting the hydrocarbon chains in oil as like cutting up little pieces of rope, so you can convert heavy oil to light. But its much more difficult to join up bits of rope or hydrocarbon chains to convert light oil to heavy oil.

And it's useful to add light oil to heavy oil when the heavy oil is immobile, thick like treacle. So Venezulua does this to make it less viscous .

But adding light and heavy oils together doesn't give you medium oil. Again with the rope analogy- if you add a mix of long and short bits of rope together you don't end up with medium bits of rope. They remain long and short bits of rope. Unless you do some chemistry. And that goes back to previous point- you can relatively easily chemically cut the long chains, joining bits are more difficult.

[lageraemia] 02/4/2019 23:25

Lee

The initial Cairn find in India was a similar crude being a waxy medium from a lake basin source rock.

Not sure the price is directly comparable as that's inland and its in India.

Refining is like alchemy. If you have a mobile product with different set of properties someone will want it.

Shale oil seems great for gasoline, but that's not the future of refining due to electric vehicles. Plastics, petrochemicals, diesel and jet future are higher margin products that need heavier feedstock crudes.

[stansmith3] 02/4/2019 22:13

brexit cancelledtake note wbecki and gersemiyou were warned, silly childrenLMFAO

[rationaleee] 02/4/2019 21:45

Cheers Whisky.. we can guess what price SL crude could fetch, if we know any other field that is in production and with very similar characteristics to SL oil (i.e. waxy crude, med, etc.)?

Surely the pricing for SL crude could be deduced by looking at a very similar field but no clue what field is that similar to SL? Any ideas?

[seangwhite] 02/4/2019 21:28

Sealion is best left until someone other than PMO finance it. Surely Tad has learnt his lesson onnstraoght bank debt.Zama is a different story and needs taking precedence over SL. Lets hope the next update shows why.

[lageraemia] 02/4/2019 21:08

Sealion is a medium grade waxy crude.

It is exactly what US refiners need to balance out the excess of light sweet shale oil they have.

The waxy nature comes from non-marine (lacustrine) origin of the basin and source rock. The tankers needs a bit a of warming to keep it mobile, but essentially its valuble stuff that's easy to shift in tankers otherwise.

[whiskeyinthejar] 02/4/2019 20:54

rl- wti is settlement price at landlocked Cushing, Oaklahoma. Sea Lion doesn't have that problem ;) But impossible to accurately predict what price SL oil will achieve- it's years away.

I think attraction with SL is the sheer size of asset which keeps costs per barrel down and that Falklands is offering cheap tax regime and UK government is supposedly going to assist with Export Finance to help get it all funded.

Best ask Investor Relations if you have questions I think.

Near term upside is if PMO decide to go ahead, I think share price should get boost from reserves being booked.

Big fields get developed, the oil doesn't stay in the ground. So IMO Sea Lion will go ahead and the costings calculate that it'll be profitable even at low poo.

[rationaleee] 02/4/2019 20:04

10% discount to 5% premium is quite a wide range... 10% discount at $100/bbl Brent is $90/bbl while at $70/bbl, its $63/bbl...so kind of significant either way.

Although, this ppt is dated Sep. 2011, any thoughts on what price would a waxy crude like that of Sea Lion fetch in todays market strucutre, given all the change in market dynamic with heavy/light oil, etc? Cheers

[rationaleee] 02/4/2019 19:58

Just found a detailed Sea Lion development ppt on RKHs website...

It says on slide 29...

"...Sea Lion would be likely to trade in a range between 10% discount and 5% premium to Brent FOB "

hxxps://rockhopperexploration.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Cap.-Markets-Presentation-Development.pdf

[adg] 02/4/2019 19:51

I recall it would carry a premium to Brent