Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[benchmark] 10/1/2018 19:43

karateboy - yes, large volumes and big rises in share prices are generally seen as good signs! Investors are also often inclined to interpret anything at all in whatever way they want to support their inner conviction.

Let's hope PMO continues to rebound after a few years in the doldrums. Time will tell and trying to interpret every trade on the market is a waste of time - that is unless one is a trader!

[leoneobull] 10/1/2018 19:30

I I've sold out too.... The whole lot. I will probably seek to get back in but has risen like a phoenix and the chance to take profit and watch from the sidelines was too great to resist. It could well continue its rise without pause but two weeks ago most people on the boards were calling for TD's head still

[karateboy] 10/1/2018 19:29

Very large volume and big rise in share price that is always a good sign. People are now catching up with the Catcher.

[prewar] 10/1/2018 19:22

As per previous post had some thoughts on the arbitrage play here. Welcome constructive comments on what the following suggests. Have used a very simplified numerical example, clearly the exact position is a variant on this but hopefully gives a starting point. Numbers are illustrative only, exclude transaction costs and SD.

At point of refinance being agreed then some of the debtholders obtained rights to convert D4E. share price at the time was say 70p.

Let's say one investor has bought £100 of debt at par and is hoping for £40 of interest over period to maturity. Let's say that can be converted to 280 shares.

So if could convert straightaway they would have value of £196 (280*£0.7), some upside so depending on risk appetite they may choose to lock in some upside.

Investor then shorts straightaway say 200 shares at 70p. If PMO goes bust then don't convert and can get the £140 guaranteed they were going to get from Redemption and Interest. A way of locking in debt investment, making it risk free (subject to below).

If share price moves to say £1 then position becomes

Equity if convert £280 less loss on short of £60, so now has value of £220.

If share price moves to say £1.50 then position becomes

Equity if convert £420 less loss on short of £160, so now has value of £260.

So as share price ratchets up so does value, debt investor may (depending on risk appetite) choose to lock in a bit more and so short at each various price increase.

Presumably by same logic reducing short if share price falls.

Haven't thought it fully through but seems to have legs....

[prewar] 10/1/2018 19:01

Hi Begorrah, happy new year!

I actually repeatedly said PMO was leveraged to POO rather than track it. Fixed costs of debt won't be impacted by POO. Basic economic theory I thought. The rise since Xmas as you say has been fantastic well above POO rise. I'm trying to understand why.

If I post my thoughts on the arbitrage play maybe you and others far more knowledgeable than me can critique it? Would be a shame not to try and improve our collective knowledge but up to you. Will post separately.

QP posts on EZY, he's been calling it down since about £9, about £15 now, I filter him so not sure what he said.

[begorrah88] 10/1/2018 18:49

PrewarTo remind you. Your previous posts repeatedly said that PMO is a POO tracker and that the only thing impacting on the share price was the oil price.Since then PMO has risen c20% and POO? Looks like QuePassa has called you spot onBye bye

[quepassa] 10/1/2018 18:02

Can't believe there's anyone who hasn't filtered PREWAR by now, adds nowt, don't feed the troll.

[kungfupanda] 10/1/2018 17:39

Its over to you TD and for once don't let us down.

[prewar] 10/1/2018 17:31

Begorrah re 34477, as the arbitrage shorts have increased is that good, bad or indifferent for Pmo?

Been busy with work but have had a think since Christmas and I think no impact in line with my previous posts on this. It is complicated though.

[begorrah88] 10/1/2018 16:51

Don't be a stranger AI

[american idiot] 10/1/2018 16:43

Good Luck for you guys tomorrow.

Having had a fantastic 6 months of trading here I am now fully out of PMO (Sold my last 25k @ 93.28p I think soon after todays open) and am now going to be having a break from good old PMO.

Wish you all the best :-)

[begorrah88] 10/1/2018 16:35

Shorts over .5% still increasing

Polygon & Highbridge the 2 main arbitrage players

Now 13.43%

So that means now about 70m shares that can be converted without any real negative impact when they decide to.

[s34icknote] 10/1/2018 16:35

Big buy At 98.5p !Happy days Sicknote

[s34icknote] 10/1/2018 16:34

Hurricane 9.4 percent so both pmo and hur catching up after large sellers sold down positions . No resistance tomorrow on good update .Fingers crossed .N a I Sicknote

[begorrah88] 10/1/2018 16:17

Understandebly a few nervy sorts banking profits and getting out before tomorrow

GL to all holders and hope we get a solid one

[s34icknote] 10/1/2018 14:34

1.3 million trade just gone through Sicknote

[leoneobull] 10/1/2018 14:23

Things never go up in a straight line..... Apart from pmo in the second week in January Lol

[steve73] 10/1/2018 13:55

The forced conversion price is actually closer to about 95p. It's 40% above the CP, which itself is fixed in $ terms... at $0.91744 (which was equivalent to 74.7p when the refinancing closed at $1.228/GBP). With the stronger pound now, the CP around 67.8p at todays Fx, and the price at which they can be forced is 94.9p. We still have to wait until July though, but I see a few more have announced conversion today.

Actually 2.5M have announced converted today ... at the price of $0.91744.

I make it over 10MM have now converted, just over 4%.

[cumnor] 10/1/2018 13:01

Beg and Chrisgail-thanks for explanation of debt conversion. While poo will almost definitely retrace-hopefully to no more than $58-60 so shale investors and lenders (who hopefully have learnt a lesson not to mess with the House of Saud and Putin) keep,the lid on encouraging more production long term as the Arabs can do it again. PMO is looking better by the day and can live with $60 easily and better $70 avg where this will multiply. imo