Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[s34icknote] 08/1/2018 16:49

Another good day ! Helped by merger talk in the oil sector and upgrades ! Sicknote N a I

[bgwesley] 08/1/2018 12:54

90p broken - bet Marv's out celebrating!

[crystball] 08/1/2018 12:23

Not sure if this link has been posted on this discussion thread?

hxxps://globenewswire.com/news-release/2018/01/07/1284693/0/en/BW-Offshore-Received-First-Oil-Certificate-for-BW-Catcher-FPSO.html

It would suggest things are going well at Catcher?

Other bulletin boards have exploded into life with the realisation of what is going on with Premier Oil at the moment. It is hard to see the wood for the trees.

It would be great if there was a steady, successful ramp up of production from Catcher. Who knows, perhaps in a few months time there may be sanctioning of Sea Lion, in which case the RKH share price would soar. Add to that news about Zama and surely PMO would be off to the races! All dependent on the higher oil price being maintained of course. That is anybody's guess.

[eastender boy] 08/1/2018 10:41

Looking like a good day again, even begs is happy ish
what's the thought on debt reduction for 11th ?
my guess is a reduction of 250M for the qtr..

[gersemi] 08/1/2018 08:44

The equation is simple. As equity slowly replaces debt the value that accrues to the shareholder increases (leverage kicks in), firstly through an increase in the share price and secondly the payment of a dividend, if capital circumstances permit

[phowdo] 08/1/2018 08:39

Next big resistance is 100.
Through there and the bears will forced into hibernation.

[begorrah88] 08/1/2018 08:28

OK, I'm breathing out now

[begorrah88] 08/1/2018 08:04

We all need to hold our breath while it pushes through 86p!

[begorrah88] 08/1/2018 07:44

That's a 30% hike from them since 27/12

[peterlowen] 08/1/2018 07:42

LATEST BROKER VIEWS
Date Broker New target Recomm.
8 Jan Peel Hunt 130.00 Buy

[kungfupanda] 08/1/2018 06:00

Wonder what the week will bring?

[moneybags] 07/1/2018 18:17

Karateboy

I too have shares in both PMO and Tullow and I agree,PMO will do better in 2018 than Tullow.

Regards ,Moneybags , IOM

[karateboy] 07/1/2018 16:43

With catcher net oil production of 30k boe per day in mid 2018, PMO daily production will be as much as TLW i.e > 100k boe per day. Even if PMO share price doubles in 2018 and doubles again in 2019, Market cap still will be 50% less than current TLW market cap. I have shares in both companies but I believe strongly that in 2018 we will see Pmo share price at least to double.

[fireplace22] 07/1/2018 14:35

Trading update this week - think its Thursday.

edit:
The next Premier Trading and Operations Update will be provided on 11 January 2018. Premier's Full Year Results for 2017 will be announced on 8 March 2018.

[smythe2] 07/1/2018 13:20

IS there any company announcements due around the 16th jan 2018/

[cumnor] 07/1/2018 08:39

They, as we all have, factored it in to our investment here. I feel, however, they have not factored Zama's potential in here and a sale of this, or some other of their assets could leave residual debt a non issue within no time. As a clean, medium sized producer a market cap of 5-7 billion, if poo remains at $60+ is not out of the question at some stage. Bears conveniently forget their other assets which are potentially valued at or near their debt level and concentrate on pure debt alone.

[leoneobull] 07/1/2018 08:30

It is a nice piece but have they factored in the equity dilution from conversions? I'd have thought 1.50 to 1.80 might be a more realistic objective.

[markyd60] 06/1/2018 14:51

From the Motley Fool

Since mid-2014, shares in Premier Oil (LSE: PMO) have floundered. Falling oil prices have weighed heavily on the group, and capital spending obligations have drained the company’s coffers, pushing up debt.

Writedowns on the value of its oil-producing properties, as well as high costs and negative margins, have pushed the company into a loss for the past three years. In fact, since 2014 the group has reported a total pre-tax loss of $1.5bn, more than twice its current market cap.

However, in the past few weeks, Premier’s outlook has changed completely. At the end of December, the firm reported that it had produced first oil from its flagship Catcher project in the North Sea — the project that has been responsible for the majority of the group’s issues these last few years.

From cash drain to cash cow
Premier started the development of Catcher in 2014, just before oil prices collapsed leaving it committed to a high-cost project at the wrong point in the cycle.

Funding the $1.6bn projected pushed net debt to $2.8bn at the end of September. Nonetheless, now that oil is flowing, the company should be able to start paying off these obligations. The development is expected produce about 10,000 barrels of oil per day, initially before ramping up to 60,000 bbl/d in the first half of 2018. Premier’s 50% ownership means its production will rise by 30,000 bbl/d as the project ramps up.

City analysts currently expect this production to yield a pre-tax profit of £140m for 2018, which translates into earnings per share of 14.7p, a forward P/E of 7.7 at current prices. What I’m interested in, however, is the company’s cash flow.

Debt reduction
The most significant cloud overhanging Premier right now is its debt. The firm has already negotiated its debt with creditors once, and before it can be taken seriously again, management needs to get the group back on a stable financial footing.

City estimates vary, but it is forecast that Premier could generate several hundred million dollars in cash flow from operations next year. Of course, this depends on what the price of oil does, but still, it is clear that the firm will be able to begin paying down its debt in 2018.

As the risk of bankruptcy fads, I see no reason why the shares cannot attract a higher earnings multiple.

Peers such as Genel Energy, Cairn Energy, Tullow Oil and BP Plc all trade at forward earnings multiples of 20 or more. On this basis, as Premier pays down debt, I see no reason why the shares can’t return to a sector average P/E of 20 or more. Based on current earnings forecasts, this implies a share price of 294p for the firm, up 250% from current levels. Moreover, as oil prices continue to push higher, I wouldn’t rule out further earnings upgrades, which could lead to gains of 300%.

[asa8] 06/1/2018 14:03

Thanks Steve

[steve73] 06/1/2018 12:46

asa, if you're referring to the 104 "wall" as being due to the forced conversion limit (which is what it was set at during the refinancing), bear in mind it was actually fixed at a $ level, but with the strong pound now, it's actually more like 95p. There was some discussion a few days ago if you look back.

Forced conversion cannot occur until after one year (so at least 6 months to go for that), and the share price need to be over that limit for 25 consecutive days.

If progress continues as the last few weeks, I would expect us to be well over that level for most of this coming year.. providing of course the oil price keeps up.

[asa8] 06/1/2018 10:39

Morning guys is the next big wall £1.04 and can someone who knows how this all works explain the different scenarios here thanks

[karateboy] 06/1/2018 10:14

Stocks on loan needs to be given back one day!

[steve73] 06/1/2018 01:29

Nice to see another $300,000 worth of convertibles taken off.. I wonder if there has been an equivalent drop in the shorts.

Short disclosure usually take a few days to show up, but the Stock-on-loan average for Dec shows a significant reduction from November.. 26.54% down to 23.98%.

Looks to me like the shorters are "running for the hills".

A good start to the New Year if ever there was one..

"Good Luck" & "Well Done" to all holders. (And GL to shorters too - you're gonna REALLY need it!!!!)