Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[marvin9] 29/12/2017 11:18

Common girlies put your handbags away

[begorrah88] 29/12/2017 10:58

That's right, you like the 01/08/17 date because it suits your agenda don't you? other start dates all mess up your ramps don't they?

Not sure the pretend campness is appropriate or maybe it is amusing to you.

If you consider that witty then I am not about to enter into a battle of wits with an unarmed man

[prewar] 29/12/2017 10:44

Gutted you're not calling me sweet, was hoping maybe we could go on a date one day?

Will you be selling out your holding until the position becomes clearer re shorts?

Oh btw I think we have had appreciation in share price with POO rising. I posted on here before Xmas, since 01/08/17 at the time share price was up 25%, currency adjusted POO up something like 22%, despite hedging Oil at lower than the POO at the time of analysis.

[marvin9] 29/12/2017 10:17

Have to agree with begor, Pmo is not your normal share when it comes to working out value.

Shorters show insite into the movement of PMO, if they increase then sell, if they suddenly drop then buy buy buy.

Not sure if I mentioned it but dodgy dealings are rife with the share price, without comment from Puppet Dodgy Tony or concern from governing bodies.

Would you buy a car from Dodgy Tony? NO CHANCE.

Wait until the shorters reduce, that is the buy signal.

Oink Oink, Pigs in a trough ;@)

[begorrah88] 29/12/2017 10:06

Btw

I didn't call you sweet I said your action was sweet.

I can see how you interpret something that isn't in the text to read as you would like it to be rather than what it actually is. Quite telling about how your analytical methods.

[begorrah88] 29/12/2017 09:56

Extraordinary way to value a potential investment prewar, by ignoring significant factors that weigh on a share price but heyho, each to their own and you with 20 years professional business analysis behind you.

If I was a fresh investor I would most certainly research why a company, with so much positive news, operational progress and appearing significantly undervalued versus peers, was struggling to realise its' true value. If I then saw increasing short positions and investigated why there are short sellers stopping any appreciation in the share price whilst POO was rising then I would hold off until a clearer picture emerged.

Probably not unlike Institutional investors do/are doing.

[prewar] 29/12/2017 09:34

Hi Begorrah, thanks for your reply and for calling me sweet! Not sure how to break this to you but I haven't been sat by my monitor waiting for you to post. I thought that was inefficient so have set up an equivalent of a 'Bat-light' where every time you post it shines a light into the sky so that I can rush back to my 'monitor' (or mobile phone) to review your words of wisdom. I'm always trying to expand my knowledge base yes you're right.

Obviously there's lots of ways of valuing a business, I tend to go for modelling post-tax nominal cashflows on discounted basis. If I wanted to take a stake in PMO i'd look at cashflows for equity holders after servicing debt. I'd then compare that to the current share price to see if good chance of win or lose compared to current position. Lots of assumptions in there but as that seeking alpha article states better to be roughly right than precisely wrong.

So Begorrah if you were buying PMO as a fresh investor (say 100%) would the shorts impact on the value you'd be willing to pay? Not sure they would for me, but I'm no expert on these things so want to pick your brain if possible.

[prewar] 29/12/2017 09:19

Thanks Leo/Steve for the seeking alpha article, obviously they are long so run the risk of being accused of ramping. That said a lot of the analysis seems sound, for example PMO highly leveraged to POO. Let's hope they're correct.

[marvin9] 29/12/2017 09:17

Don't listen to Beano; him and emilo have just got out of bed with Durrant

[withoutt] 29/12/2017 08:23

Deanroberthunt
Where do get your oil prices from? My monitor shows $66.52 to buy and it didn't hit $67 overnight. ATB

[deanroberthunt] 29/12/2017 08:11

brent now over $67

[deanroberthunt] 29/12/2017 08:09

post opex. capex and debt repayments, this company is now generating $500-600m free cashflow....if they wanted and were able, assuming Brent is no higher in the next 3-4 years, they'd pay off all the debt in 4-5 years.

Sea Lion is profitable above $45 and is probable a similar to Catcher in bopd
Tolmount is on the radar and is an impressive asset
Mexico is world class
Catcher will be up to 30kbopd net by mid 2018 to PMO
and EON is the gift that just keeps on giving

we have a short term blocker in terms of the Lenders/Bondholders....I'd see it as an opportunity to fill your boots while the sale of this millenium is still on...

nuff said

[deanroberthunt] 29/12/2017 08:00

I'm expecting this to be over £12 a share in 2021.

[begorrah88] 29/12/2017 07:22

prewar

How sweet that you've been waiting by your monitor for me to post - very flattering

....and yet another question. You are hungry for knowledge aren't you.

Depends how you define the underlying value of the business - if by that you mean ignoring the share price [which I would certainly say is a major factor in the valuation of any business] then no and you can happily go on your way thinking your investment is rising.

If, however, you measure the value of your investment by what your shares could be sold for, then obviously a massive yes as the shorting of the stock is acting like a huge anchor on the share price and even sending the share price down in a period of rising oil [curious for those that refuse to acknowledge the increasing shorts that are factually declared and believe that PMO is a POO tracker, they must have been scratching their heads over the last couple of days]

[steve73] 29/12/2017 01:15

Leoneobull.. thanks, good link...

If you change one of the leading "http" into a Capital it usually makes the link "clickable"..

[leoneobull] 29/12/2017 00:26

Second time lucky https://seekingalpha.com/article/4133987-premier-oil-massive-asset-base-multiple-short-term-catalysts-rerate-stock-several-times

[leoneobull] 29/12/2017 00:25

https://www.theguardian.com.seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4133987-premier-oil-massive-asset-base-multiple-short-term-catalysts-rerate-stock-several-times

[marvin9] 28/12/2017 21:23

asa8 lmao, not sure why I'm laffing, but your probably right.

Such awards are worthless and normally awarded to those who serve corruption and are simply nob heads

[ohmymel] 28/12/2017 21:17

at times like this, will tank to 64p soon

[mreasygoing] 28/12/2017 21:09

Chart looking beautiful. Looking forward to £1. Then £2 in a year or two.

[asa8] 28/12/2017 21:08

Just read on the mail website that Durrant is to receive a knighthood in the new year for services to the shorting industry you couldn’t make it up!

[marvin9] 28/12/2017 20:52

TLW = £2.05

PMO = £0.77P

REALLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY????????????????

Have to say, it proves my point; its all about who has the best CEO