Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Premier Foods Plc LSE:PFD London Ordinary Share GB00B7N0K053 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.30 -2.32% 97.00 96.90 97.00 98.20 93.90 97.50 7,140,494 16:29:57
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food Producers 847.1 53.6 5.5 17.6 827

Premier Foods Share Discussion Threads

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Ali4 post 20239 erm.............. "Jefferies analyst Martin Deboo said: “Premier is clearly enjoying a good war. However, this is more than just a bubble economy. Today's quarterly sales growth figure was significantly ahead of Deboo's 5.2% estimate" CLUE 1!!!! "Peel Hunt recently named Premier as one of its 31 value stocks for 2021 Analyst Charles Hall added: “The renewed lockdown is likely to extend the positive performance in the short-term, but we see potential for some of the themes to be longer lasting, with more people working from home, an increase in cooking from scratch, greater online penetration and a strong base for growing international.”;" Clue 2 I am linking an article that summarises broker reports!!!
gecko - is your post above a broker report or your own commentary please?
Have bought a few parcels more ....IMO the share restructuring will allow divis, the 6% coupon debt refi later this year, plus ongoing (hopefully!) upgrades will allow net debt ratio to continue falling materially, allowing the re-start of dividends.....the US international roll out is also fascinating if they can get that right that could also be material.... DYOR, but in this for yield and capital growth in 2021
Looks way oversold IMO...should be a yield also coming this year IMO....I reckon H2....DYOR
"Well done to all the long term holders still here" One of the best-performing stocks of the pandemic revealed more “exceptional” progress today as households continue to turn to Premier Foods (LSE:PFD) brands including Bisto and Sharwood's. The home cooking trends caused by recent lockdowns, and the ongoing closure of pubs and restaurants, have created the perfect environment for Premier. That’s led to further City profit upgrades after the company said sales grew 9% in the quarter to Boxing Day. Once trading conditions start to normalise, the pandemic's impact should still be felt, however, as stronger cash flows have enabled Premier to retire expensive debt and boost investment, including a plan revealed today for selling Mr Kipling cakes in the United States. And with more people expected to continue working from home, the longer-term demand outlook for Premier's wide-ranging portfolio remains promising. Jefferies analyst Martin Deboo said: “Premier is clearly enjoying a good war. However, this is more than just a bubble economy. Today's quarterly sales growth figure was significantly ahead of Deboo's 5.2% estimate, driven by momentum in UK groceries and a better-than-expected result in the branded cakes division. Trading profits are now expected to be between £145 million and £150 million in the year to March, compared with Deboo's initial forecast of £144.8 million. He added: “Sustained improvement in household penetration, market share and brand investment, which is collectively delivering both growth and debt reduction, is laying the foundations of a better and more conventionally-financed Premier Foods.” Premier shares recently broke above the 100p level, having languished in a zombie-like state below 50p for the period between 2016 and 2019 due to high levels of indebtedness. The share price rose 165% in 2020 and is currently up 390% since the market low in March. Underneath that balance sheet millstone, however, analysts believed a strong business was seeking to show its true value. That's been unlocked by chief executive Alex Whitehouse, although he owes some of the recent success to initiatives prior to his appointment in August 2019, such as the rebranding of the Mr Kipling cakes business. Just as important as the trading improvement has been a landmark agreement with trustees for the merger of three pension funds, resulting in a substantially improved funding situation. Profit-taking by investors today saw shares fall back 4.4p to 103.6p, even though Whitehouse said the third quarter had been “another period of exceptional growth”. He added: “Looking to the remainder of the (financial) year, out of home eating is likely to remain heavily restricted and we therefore expect to see continued high levels of consumer demand for our products.” Peel Hunt recently named Premier as one of its 31 value stocks for 2021, even though it rose by 165% in the previous year. The broker today increased its price target by 5p to 130p and also upgraded its 2021 profits estimate by 5% to £105 million. Analyst Charles Hall added: “The renewed lockdown is likely to extend the positive performance in the short-term, but we see potential for some of the themes to be longer lasting, with more people working from home, an increase in cooking from scratch, greater online penetration and a strong base for growing international.”;
Obviously the debt on the 5%+LIBOR floating note will be down to £50m shortly, and there looks to be every possibility that it will be paid off by circa by the middle of 2021. The Q&A on threw up one interesting point on the potential for re-financing their other debt note, the October 2023 £300m fixed rate note which has a coupon of 6.25%. The CFO stated that with their debt much reduced this now looks a full rate, a point which has been made on previous calls. He pointed out that there is a penalty for redeeming the note early but this penalty halves from the middle of 2021. So, from that time, they will be looking to refinance the debt. I have no idea of the associtaed penalty or of what interest rate they might expect to achieve given the ongoing drop in net debt/EBITDA. Thoughts welcome.
EC, Will be interested in what you make of PFD. Some bizarre reactions to strong RNSes currently IMHO. Obviously PFD have benefited from COVID but a lot of what is going on is due to self-help. And paying down 5%+LIBOR debt will make a big difference. Shame about the pension situation but hopefully they will get completely on top of that soon.
Trading update looked very positive to me. I am surprised by the market's reaction and have taken the opportunity to enter with a sizeable purchase. Now I need to follow up with some analysis .... hope I'm not too late to the party.
effortless cool
Think as the debt comes down, private equity may take a look at this IMO if it becomes too lowly rated.....divi would be a nice reinstatement in 2021....let's see.....COviD has helped them, but perhaps new habits have been borne out of it that will benefit PFD in the long-term?
Excellent Q3 update, but muted market response. I've sold my holding at 105.2p - want to lock in profits and will buy back as it looks like we are being driven back below 100p by profit taking and short sellers starting back up.
Cracking update IMO....debt really coming down fast DYOR
Hi Dan i agree and have being doing similar. of course they are known for the Mr K, but it is the sauces for home cooking that are also a big driver of sales. i think as far as the equity is worth, the small increase in sales (on a fixed production base) gives a big boost to profits, which means debt falls off even faster, which significantly -de-risks the business, which i think will allow the equity to have a higher rating on higher profits giving a double whammy boost. All IMHO, DYOR + BoL PFD is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
Having spent a lot of time today going through the figures again I have just added more (irrespective of previous after news drops - which I managed to take advantage of - oops sorry). Anyway - my overall reason to buy again, standing back from the figures (which are good) is a bit more Eddie Murphy analysis from the film Trading Places - We have been/will be stuck in an effective stay at home scenario (including the annual Christmas boost) from November 2nd 2020 to April 2nd 2021 - that's 6 months !!!!! How many Mr Kipling cakes are going to be eaten in that time etc. etc. - A hell of a lot. Good luck
I've just voted for the proposal to approve a capital reduction. - This is recommended by the Board. Proposal is to use the £1,409.8m positive balance in the Company's share premium account and transfer to the P+L account. This will eliminate the P+L deficit, creating additional distributable reserves for the company. There is no dilution in the number of shares or any new shares to be issued. As the share premium account is an "undistributable reserve", the purposes for which it can be used are extremely restricted hence the need for a vote. The vote requires 75% of All shares held to vote for the proposal to get it passed. SO EVERY VOTE COUNTS!!! The deadline for this vote is SAT 9 JAN AT 11AM Gen Meeting to review results / proposal is on Monday 11 Jan and if vote succeeds, PFD will need to prove to the courts that there is no increased risk for creditors etc. A court hearing is pencilled in for 9 Feb. Personally I'm happy for this change, hence my vote. PFD have made major strides in improving results and in particular reducing debt in last year and this next step, can only be the right thing to do IMO to get share re-rated and potential for dividend.... Rich
Paulson NED stepping down is a further step to the normalisation of this company. Presumably there may be further reductions in their holdings which is still disclosable. Lockdown until March should enable further strong trading for the end of this current FY. Free cash flow should keep increasing now allowing greater flexibility in capex and resumption of dividends whilst still paying down debt. Needs a further catalyst for re-rating like the pension buy-out mooted.
Nice bonus before the weekend. Surprising what the promise of a dividend will do!
Wow, volume of 37.5m reported at the close
Another step on the way to paying a dividend. Seems to signal that is their clear intention.
Kantar reports 11.3 per cent year-on-year growth in the 12 weeks to Nov 29th, and 13.9 per cent growth last month alone. November turned out to be the biggest month ever for the UK supermarkets. Even with a vaccine(s) I don't think this trend is reversing very quickly
The very large non exec share sale from earlier this year, was that a complete exit?, thanks.
Q3 results due out on the 19th January. Share price is primed to move up back to 110p (year high price following HY results to end Sept) We know that the winter months are always PFDs best due to the product mix, seasonal mince pies etc. This year will be best ever with the lockdown in November / December and people still working from home; pubs / restaurants locked etc. A strong buy currently at 88p for 25% upside for swing traders to 110p or more likely 35% upside for investors looking for 120p+ as debt is further reduced and profit margins improve. Good luck all holders!
Every cloud has a silver lining... ...perhaps for PFD Pandemic expected to deliver £60bn boost to pension funds
yes loony.
70P looming?
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