Premier Foods Share Discussion Threads

[tomps2] 21/1/2022 10:50

PFD mentioned in latest PIWORLD/Stockopedia StockSlam

Vivek Sharma ‘slams’ Premier Foods (PFD) in the latest PIWORLD/Stockopedia StockSlam at 40m45s

Watch the video here:

Or listen to the podcast here:

[thirty fifty twenty] 20/1/2022 11:27

hi 18BT,
i agree + also thought it was a great TU.
in a business like PFD they are able to control profits in the short term by the amount of promotions and discounts they give to supermarkets, and also the amount of marketing spending. thus i see a double whammy benefit if they are raising profit forecasts as i think it must mean they have more up their sleeve.
in particular i think it must give a slight nod to good progress on the pension buy out negotiations.... why would you raise expectations now and then in 3 mths say - ah we need lots of CASH flow to fill the pension.

to me it makes much more sense that you would manage expectations,
and i think mgt have done a great job here both operationally and also in managing expectations.

and in addition to any financial expectations, for my own analysis i am adding something extra as they look quite likely to do a bolt on acquisition. they have shown they are good at running businesses so i think the both on acquisition will be earnings enhancing.

thus we are left with a golden scenario...
growing sales, higher margins, improved CASH flow, reduced debt, reduced interest charges, growth through bolt on acquisitions, increased dividends, and a higher rating all happening at the same time. in addition there should be a small bid premium as the business type is ideal for PE now that debt is heading to below 1.5times.

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
PFD is in my top 5 hldgs

[18bt] 20/1/2022 07:49

Yet another nice update - EBIT and PBT up £6-7m on current consensus. The PBT number seems up a bit more, which may mean further savings on the interest line. Looks like they have further repositioned the brands well for post-lockdowns.

[effortless cool] 14/1/2022 18:52

Q3 update to come next Thursday.

[isis] 19/11/2021 23:01

That's the markets for ya. ;)

Premier Foods suffered a mini sell-off this week as it reported an inevitable decline in sales and profits. As consumers returned to out-of-home eating, the business came up against last year’s Covid-elevated figures.

Shares slumped 5.8% to 107.6p as markets opened on Tuesday morning but recovered to 111p by the end of the day. The stock had fallen further to 106.6p by Thursday lunchtime.

Revenues dipped 6.5% to £394.1m in the six months to 2 October, while trading profits fell 12.2% to £57.8m. However, the top line was up 7.5% on a two-year basis, with profits up by 13.1%. Sales in the second quarter actually increased 0.4% year on year, lifted by a 2.1% rise in branded sales as the likes of Bisto, Oxo, Sharwood’s, Angel Delight and Paxo all performed strongly.

Analysts struggled to rationalise investor sentiment given Premier beat broker expectations and its own guidance.

Martin Deboo of Jefferies pointed to some caution in the second half to reflect industry-wide logistics issues and input cost recovery uncertainties. But this didn’t feel like a moment to be incautious around the food industry outlook this winter, he said. “Underlying growth rates remain robust and improved a tad at Q2, with Premier outperforming the wider UK grocery market in their second quarter.”

Charles Hall of Peel Hunt added: “The shares continue to look excellent value to us given the strong underlying revenue and margin performance, combined with healthy cash generation.”

Clive Black at Shore Capital called the results “very reassuring”.

He said: “Ahead of the important Q3 trading period, when we expect many households to have a good Christmas celebration, we are pleased in the face of recent supply chain issues to be holding our FY22 forecasts with a little beat to H1 sales expectations in tow.”

Black added that as Premier’s self-improvement continued, the stock remained “just too lowly rated compared to its peers”.

CEO Alex Whitehouse has presided over a stellar recovery in value for the group, with shares rocketing from a low of 19.7p in early March 2020, just before the pandemic saw its fortunes turnaround as households – and supermarket partners – turned to the reliable stable of trusted brands from Bisto and Oxo to Ambrosia and Mr Kipling to keep cupboards stocked during lockdown.

However, it would be unfair to give all the credit for the turnaround to Covid demand, with Whitehouse reviving stale brands and investing in marketing once more.

Elsewhere, shares in McColl’s collapsed by almost 30% to lows of 13p on Wednesday after issuing a profits warning as it struggled to source high-margin branded impulse lines like snacks, beer and wine amid supply chain chaos.

[isis] 19/11/2021 09:27

I think they should have paid a small Interim Dividend to keep the faith.

[isis] 19/11/2021 09:23

I'd already sold a substantial amount in favour of Dividend shares, these are undervalued but there's nothing to stop the shorters having a go at them.
I think they are biddable too but who knows and when?

[s34icknote] 19/11/2021 08:40

Back to the nineties

[buywell3] 18/11/2021 22:11

You still hanging in there isis ?

[18bt] 18/11/2021 17:48

"it reiterates its intention to pay a dividend on a full year basis".

[prokartace] 18/11/2021 13:07

Why was there no interim dividend?

[18bt] 16/11/2021 08:33

Difficult to analyse because of the PY comparatives and write off of fees making interest look as though it has increase, but a very confident statement. Net debt now clearly under control.

[plastow] 16/11/2021 08:23

Probably drop under a quid again. Not outstanding news

[qs99] 12/11/2021 13:07

Next week will be v. interesting as you say, have bought in again ahead of next week's results. DYOR and GLA

[s34icknote] 26/10/2021 10:35

Igr profits warning Hard to tell on this one One assumes costs can be off set with price increases

[s34icknote] 22/10/2021 16:20

Large buying ahead of results My bet on a takeover at 180 for Christmas

[s34icknote] 21/10/2021 07:18

Results on November

[qs99] 24/8/2021 11:43

Maybe they are trading ahead again....they were top of expectations range last RNS I could find.....let's see....quality company being led to the sunny uplands it seems at the moment....DYOR

[rudiwebb] 24/8/2021 11:16

I was thinking the same myself

[qs99] 24/8/2021 10:21

new recent high IMO....just wonder if someone is stake building here....looks suspicious IMO! DYOR

[shaf200] 20/8/2021 13:37

With this urge from foreign investors to take over uk companies... every possibility we might get people sniffing around premier

[18bt] 18/8/2021 07:51

Actually on a combined basis, the schemes are over-funded..

[ianguerin] 18/8/2021 07:21

My understanding from the original RNS is that there is no under-funded pension overall, once the mergers are concluded. It takes time for the legal bods, actuaries, pension trustees & the company to dot all the i's & cross the t's, but I expect it's pretty much a done deal. The pension fund trustees may be holding out for a stronger company covenant, or perhaps there are some actuarial valuations to be signed off

[shaker44] 13/8/2021 12:46

How is the underfunded pension fund problem now?