Premier Foods Share Discussion Threads

[hodhasharon] 24/8/2020 10:09

Looks like the distribution of the director sale has completed. Let's begin the short trip to 60p.

[shaker44] 24/8/2020 06:25

We shall see. I wouldn't put money on it

[hodhasharon] 24/8/2020 06:15

Long term maybe, but the chart needs a pullback, and the director sale (which it looks like they’re distributing now at a premium) will be the catalyst to take us to 60p.

[shaker44] 22/8/2020 00:13

Hotdog calls it right. Shorters will burn. Still in recovery mode here and well managed. It's cluster of brands is and will sell well in these markets

[hodhasharon] 21/8/2020 20:12

My 60p target will be hit in September. Any longer term upside (which I’m sure there is) as a result of a second wave, will come well after my target is reached.

If shorting isn’t your thing, just hold and top up at 60p.

[hotdog23] 21/8/2020 18:53

I am long Premier Foods. My average cost base is 31p - I bought half at 21p in March and then the other half at around 42p after the pension news.I trimmed 10% of my total holding to re-invest elsewhere at 89p. I am going to hold the remainder for now because the UK is a long way from getting back to normal and I think we are likely to see higher grocery sales persist, even if not as high as Q1, for the next 6-12 months.I watch for monthly Kantar grocery sales announcements and the latest figures for 12 weeks to August 9 suggest UK sales up by around 10%+. If there is a material resurgence in cases after schools re-open, there is a chance of more lockdowns coming back which will increase at-home food purchases.My views only, not advice. DYOR

[hotdog23] 21/8/2020 18:39

The NED announcement relates to a short swap for Oasis and change of broker for holding the position. The Oasis "position in all respects remains unchanged".And there is a separate Oasis announcement a few days earlier that shows they reduced their actual hold to 89m shares. Not much news here other than a modest reduction from some institutions after a really big run.

[hodhasharon] 21/8/2020 14:47

This really does speak volumes. He's going to be popular in the office when the bottom falls out of the share price

19/08/20 12/08/20 SELL PFD Premier Foods PLC Wosner, Daniel NED 15,000,000 85.00p £12,750,000.00 85.45p

[hodhasharon] 21/8/2020 14:34

This really does speak volumes. He's going to be popular in the office when the bottom falls out of the share price

19/08/20 12/08/20 SELL PFD Premier Foods PLC Wosner, Daniel NED 15,000,000 85.00p £12,750,000.00 85.45p

[hodhasharon] 21/8/2020 13:46

I agree, but you were about 4 months early.

I'm short to 60p.

[hodhasharon] 21/8/2020 13:27

Confirmation indeed.

[albert3591] 21/8/2020 13:26

Heres another at the top of its latest peak,I will keep watching,I think you are right shoddy.

[hodhasharon] 21/8/2020 13:23

There's institutional selling into strength at these levels (look at the tight spread and supply volume into the dips in the flag, followed by weak recovery). If I was a Private Investor I'd be cashing in now and putting a buy order in for 60p.

[undervaluedassets] 21/8/2020 13:16

It's the product line up that concerns me...

It's like opening yer spinster Auntie Maud's cupboard...

It's full of rubbish that nobody eats anymore.

And as I said no rush to refill said cupboard. Nobody eats most of it and it never goes off so no need to rush out and buy any more

Atleast PFD got rid of all the Jam they used to have.

Hardly Wholefoods is it ...

[hodhasharon] 21/8/2020 12:43

Earnings vs Market: PFD's earnings (9.7% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (22.8% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PFD's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: PFD's revenue (1.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than the UK market (5.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PFD's revenue (1.7% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

19 Aug 20 SellUK£12,750,002 Oasis Management Company Ltd. Company 15,000,000 UK£0.85

Debt Coverage: PFD's debt is not well covered by operating cash flow (14.7%).

Interest Coverage: PFD's interest payments on its debt are not well covered by EBIT (2.3x coverage).

[hodhasharon] 21/8/2020 12:37

I've gone short PFD. The volume signature shows a distribution. I have a 60p target.

[shanklin] 21/8/2020 09:52

Its been discussed above.

[undervaluedassets] 21/8/2020 09:14

feel free to shoot me down.

Is this still not a just collection of dusty,defunct brands that no one really wants anymore that has been benefiting from a temporary set of circumstances that is unlikely to be repeated - that being.. everyone topped up the store cupboard for lockdown.

In fact now that the public have topped up the store cupboard with those preservative filled (ie long lasting) non essentials might not sales now actually fall back (or even fall) from here.

Yes PFD have had a good run but what is to keep the business going at such an elevated level

discuss ...

[prokartace] 17/8/2020 13:37

This chart represents the upside breakout from at flag formation, suggesting the next significant move upwards


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[18bt] 13/8/2020 07:29

There was a small T/U included in the results of AGM announcement yesterday pm:

Regarding current trading, July was a particularly strong month exhibiting a similar sales pattern to that of Q1. We continue to expect this to be a transitionary quarter, with trading normalising as consumers gradually return to eating out of the home. Our recently upgraded expectations for FY20/21 remain unchanged

Unless eating out normalises very quickly, they should be upgrading further in Sept/Oct. The eat out to help out scheme has made a difference around here - our local said he was now up to about 70% of normal on Tuesday night, but a lot of that I suspect is people on staycations. The eat at home trend has got quite a lot longer to go IMHO.

[shanklin] 10/8/2020 06:38

Wonder why, with such a recent TS, MWM expects another one next week.

[bigbigdave] 10/8/2020 05:43

By Mark Watson-Mitchell 07 August 2020

In this weekly summary, Mark Watson-Mitchell updates his readers on
Premier Foods (LON:PFD) – AGM next week
I am looking for yet another positive statement from Alex Whitehouse, boss of this leading national food brands group, when it holds its AGM on Wednesday of next week.
The first quarter statement showed sales up 22.5% for the 13 weeks to 27 June.
Sensibly, the company does not expect that rate of growth to continue in the second quarter. Even so, the full year should be good.
The shares, which are currently trading at around the 85p level, look very capable of an early push above the 100p mark.

[shanklin] 29/7/2020 08:39

...and maybe a dividend albeit I'd prefer they pay off all high cost debt first or, at the very least, negotiate the interest rate down to a level consistent with the much reduced risk.

[pastybap] 29/7/2020 08:31

Fair point. I should've stated I meant that from an EV point of view. Certainly at a very positive inflection point anyhow, and I can see a further substantial re-rating ahead with higher EPS, higher PE, perhaps Hovis sold off and some reinvestment into brand building, efficiencies and maybe accretive acquisitions. Who would've thought cakes and gravy could be such an exciting investment :)

[geckotheglorious] 29/7/2020 08:07

Not a bad update at all..
Good luck to all the holders

:)