Premier Foods Share Discussion Threads

[shanklin] 29/7/2020 09:39

...and maybe a dividend albeit I'd prefer they pay off all high cost debt first or, at the very least, negotiate the interest rate down to a level consistent with the much reduced risk.

[pastybap] 29/7/2020 09:31

Fair point. I should've stated I meant that from an EV point of view. Certainly at a very positive inflection point anyhow, and I can see a further substantial re-rating ahead with higher EPS, higher PE, perhaps Hovis sold off and some reinvestment into brand building, efficiencies and maybe accretive acquisitions. Who would've thought cakes and gravy could be such an exciting investment :)

[geckotheglorious] 29/7/2020 09:07

Not a bad update at all..
Good luck to all the holders

:)

[shanklin] 29/7/2020 08:45

pastybaps

Not that I would use your "transfer of ownership" description, but I agree the main story here is the debt reduction and reduced interest payments.

Even if PBT remains at this year's forecast level in future years, which seem unduly pessimistic, there is no way it is staying at a P/E under 9.

All IMHO.

[pastybap] 29/7/2020 08:31

I think the main story here is the transfer of ownership from debt to equity holders. Debt coming down quickly is having the dual effect of reduced interest payments increasing earnings as well as EV falling (equity then takes up this slack with a higher PE). A great double whammy, accelerated by double digit sales growth, but which was occurring anyway.

[qs99] 29/7/2020 08:21

great update, but will the "normalising" statement mean profit taking rather than pushing through to £1 etc? Thoughts?

[hippo] 29/7/2020 07:41

Revenue up £40m in Q1.....been using it wisely to pay down debt....

[18bt] 29/7/2020 07:40

A steady as she goes TU, for me underpinning the gains of the last few weeks. I wonder whether the market will focus on the slowing down in the exponential growth rates - it's not surprising that July growth would be slower than April - but for me it's comforting that its still in double figures. Consensus forecasts are for a 5.3% turnover growth in 2020/21, so that is quite a slow down they are building in for H2. Still a forecast PER of under 9x even if 2021/22 is flat in revenue growth (but profit grows slightly as interest and pension costs decrease) doesn't feel demanding. Interesting the market is now forecasting a token dividend of 0.5p for 2021/22.

[hippo] 28/7/2020 17:54

TU = 10% day tomorrow.Judging from the people returning to the office, they've been eating far too many Kipling's......

[qs99] 28/7/2020 08:05

Nice opening ahead of TU tomorrow....DYOR

[shanklin] 25/7/2020 12:36

Should get you through to the article

Difficult to believe this is the precursor to a dodgy TS

[qs99] 24/7/2020 09:39

Roll on Wednesday then.....maybe a re-trace into the 90s ahead of results?

[qs99] 24/7/2020 09:24

All quiet on the western front ahead of TU next week....

[qs99] 24/7/2020 08:18

All locked and loaded for next week?

[investopia] 22/7/2020 14:45

Hi Shanklin, it looks like it blew-off, to me. It's hard to argue that the stock hadn't become extended. Now's the time to re-examine the bear case (if there is one).

I wouldn't say never again, but I'd want this to set up constructively again before re-entering a long trade. In other words, a period of consolidation with volume compression as the consolidation develops. Then, when and if it breaks upwards, I'd re-enter then.

I could be wrong about all this. But for me, I've taken profits and now watching and waiting.

[ynot68] 21/7/2020 11:32

Been in this share for years. Finally seen a decent profit thanks to last few weeks. No idea if it's run out of steam, but sold 50% today, good luck to all!

[shanklin] 21/7/2020 09:29

Any chartists about who could add wisdom re this week's retrace please? Presumably not surprising given the sustained move of recent months.

[3rd eye] 20/7/2020 13:59

PFD Premier Foods down for no apparent reason -9%.

I did leave on thursday but now back in. Small P/E of just 13 going forward, looks like a golden opportunity to get in now on the cheap.



Latest broker views

Date Broker Recomm. Current Price Price when issued Old price New price
02 Jul 20 Jefferies International Buy 84.05 70.80 80.00 100.00
26 Jun 20 Jefferies International Buy 84.05 69.50 80.00 -
24 Jun 20 Shore Capital Buy 84.05 59.60 - -
24 Jun 20 Peel Hunt Buy 84.05 59.60 80.00 90.00

[bclissold] 20/7/2020 10:39

The Independent employs reporters around the world to bring you truly independent journalism. To support us, please consider a contribution.

Three quarters of UK hauliers face being shut of the EU if there is no Brexit trade deal, sparking fresh fears about shortages of food and other goods.

Permits would be made available for only 2,088 businesses from January, a trade group is warning – a massive drop on the 8,348 that were registered for journeys last year.

The Freight Transport Association (FTA), said companies, already under financial strain because of coronavirus, needed a solution to be found within weeks, as it prepares for its “Christmas peak”.

But the Brexit talks remain deadlocked, with little chance of an agreement by the end of October deadline without a breakthrough when they resume this week.

The UK would then be forced to rely on a fixed number of permits through the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT) scheme – and would receive only 2,088.

Read more

The UK internal market is the latest irony to come out of Brexit chaos
Sarah Laouadi, the FTA’s European policy manager, said the situation emphasised the vital task of “securing a free trade agreement with the EU”.

“If you learn whether you have the right to continue operating as a company on Dec 28 and the only fallback plan is the ECMT system, which requires applications and allocations for permits, it will be too late,” she warned.

The Department for Transport (DfT) said it was “optimistic that an agreement can be reached”, but referred to protecting only “the substantial flow of international haulage”.

Lorry companies will lose the right to provide transport services when the UK leaves the single market and customs union at the end of 2020, when the transition period concludes.

Brexit timeline: How did we get here?
Show all 20
Britain votes to leave the European Union - 23 June 2016
David Cameron resigns - 24 June 2016
Theresa May takes the reins - 13 July 2016
High Court rules parliament must vote on Brexit - November 2016 - 3 November 2016
Ministers have announced £705m for carrying out post-Brexit trade checks, including building 12 lorry parks – five in Kent alone – to hold vehicles delayed at Dover and other ports.

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But they have been accused of downplaying previously-acknowledged dangers from a no-deal Brexit, including food, fuel and medicine shortages.



✕
Now the ECMT scheme is poised to add to those headaches, with the DfT charged with allocating the permits after a total is decided at EU level.

When a no-deal Brexit loomed last year, the hauliers who made the most cross-Channel journeys were prioritised, which downgraded trade between Britain and the Republic of Ireland.

Read more

UK firms ‘unprepared for no-deal Brexit’ due to coronavirus crisis

Divert Brexit festival funds to help save the arts

Sir Ian Botham set to be made a peer for backing Brexit

Does ‘no progress’ in EU trade talks mean hopes of a deal are fading?
If the same model is used, businesses crossing the Irish Sea might need to reroute, disrupting supply chains, the FTA warned.

Without a trade deal, bilateral agreements might have to be struck with individual member states, but Ms Laouadi warned this would be slow and that “a patchwork of rules would be a nightmare to navigate”.

It would be especially cumbersome for UK businesses operating in more than one EU state after crossing the Channel, she added.

Alternatively, the EU could grant temporary market access to UK hauliers for nine months, but this was “not a sustainable, long-term solution”, Ms Laouadi said.

MORE ABOUT:
BREXIT | NO-DEAL BREXIT | FREIGHT TRANSPORT ASSOCIATION | DEPARTMENT FOR TRANSPORT | SINGLE MARKET | CUSTOMS UNION

[phlegm] 17/7/2020 20:47

I am out if we touch 95, happy holidays,so sad for the dopes that sold at 17,you know who you are,lol

[phlegm] 17/7/2020 20:44

What divide the,lol

[mick] 17/7/2020 15:20

I would prefer to see the expensive loan notes retired rather than a dividend.