Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Premier Foods Plc LSE:PFD London Ordinary Share GB00B7N0K053 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.85 -3.35% 24.50 1,023,153 16:35:24
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
24.35 24.65 25.95 24.10 25.35
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food Producers 824.30 -42.70 -4.00 208
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:24 UT 48,653 24.50 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
26/3/202021:52Premier Foods - Charts & News19,961
22/4/201616:32*** WARNING *** Sell Premier Foods while you still can !72
24/8/201509:02Premier Foods (Positive News, Moderated) FEB 20131,196
27/4/201412:21Premier Foods PLC -30
26/7/201311:21Premier Foods-

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Premier Foods Daily Update: Premier Foods Plc is listed in the Food Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PFD. The last closing price for Premier Foods was 25.35p.
Premier Foods Plc has a 4 week average price of 17.86p and a 12 week average price of 17.86p.
The 1 year high share price is 45.90p while the 1 year low share price is currently 17.86p.
There are currently 850,328,687 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 6,523,378 shares. The market capitalisation of Premier Foods Plc is £208,330,528.32.
lammylover: JP Morgan take a stake in Premier Foods - behind todays 8.5% rise? Back into the 40ps. Hoping this is start of some share price progress and hopefully get my investment back plus with some interest! Rich
lammylover: Oasis / Paulson forcing issue of ownership of PFD. Hopefully Nissin will buy out Batchelors for £300m or better still the whole company. Company Mkt cap worth less than sum of parts, as these fund holders know. Expect share price to continue to rise to AGM.
vinceelliott: Surprised it has been so quiet here, as: share price up 12% since start of month; clashes on re-election of ceo; RNS and 6% plus holding by Paulson & co, a backer of undervalued companies who are takeover candidates; I am long and have held for over a year on recovery grounds rather than takeover. See also #19867 and RNS re Oasis challenging ceo
grabster: Sadly, glenglen, the company's prospects as a competitive supplier of foods are poor, and in my view it will never succeed. I have argued the same for years - notwithstanding the spikes that have occurred in the share price along the way. None of the retailer groups owe them any favours - they each have the company over a barrel when it comes to agreeing the terms on which they will stock and display PFD products - they know the company is in poor shape and will continue to exploit that. This stock has passed its sell-by date and is heading for sub-10p in my opinion. Those wishful-thinking dreamers who insist that a bidder will surely step in and save it are kidding themselves and each other.
grabster: My expectation is that the share price, regardless of momentary upward spikes, will sink to 30p this year. The cost of advertising and promotion will continue to be a killer - and none of the supermarkets will do Premier any favours.
yinyang888: grabster, why don't you short pfd then? let's see what the share price will be by the end of the year!
boffster: Another lousy update from this company which never fails to disappoint. If not for the recent bid interest the share price would be down at 25p. I would suggest current holders might consider capitalising on this disparity, as I can see nothing to drive the share price forward in the medium term. I very much doubt that McCormick or anyone else will be back to bid for this, with declining sales and a still huge debt
dexdringle: I suspect McCormick weren't interested in a hostile takeover. Quite why the board of PFD thought than an offer at around a 100% premium to the share price beforehand "undervalued" the business I don't know. What the hell do they think the shares are worth - and what is their plan to achieve that ? Presumably, if it is so clear that the shares are worth more than the McCormick offer, we should be looking at amazing news that will mean the share price is more than 65p within the next, say, 3 to 6 months.....
baron83: Broker Jefferies today (some snippets): - Valuation/Risks We value PFD on a target EV:EBITDA multiple of 9x (was 9.5x). After allowing for debt & the pension deficit, this projects a fair value on the equity of 60p in round numbers. Risks to our PT include the UK retail price environment UK pension macros. - How much damage is being done to PFD by the UK supermarket ‘price war?’ Very little to date. PFD shelf pricing remains resilient. The problem is one of volume, not pricing. We continue to think that branded ambient grocery is not in the retailers’ price cut crosshairs and is, if anything, cross-subsidising deep price cuts elsewhere. However the fast-degrading environment for the big 4 and the imponderable of Tesco’s ‘strategic review’ on 23 October leaves no room for complacency. The evidence persists that there is no – repeat no – downward pressure on the shelf prices of Premier’s Power Brands. If anything prices have risen by 5-10% of so since the Spring trough. It’s also the case that Morrisons – the most aggressive price cutter in the Big 4 thus far on an across-the-board basis – have increased prices on Premier’s brands slightly faster since the Spring trough. This supports our thesis that the ‘price war’ is taking place is proportionately in categories such as Fresh Fruit & Veg, fresh meat & poultry, Dairy and Bread2 , with branded ambient grocery being treated as a ‘banker’ category with no or few price cuts. - Can FY14 profit guidance be delivered? Yes, despite what the share price seems to be voting for. PFD left FY14 trading profit expectations unchanged at H2, which has led to a current consensus of £138m. We continue to see this as achievable. However much rests on H2 weather, new launches and an unchanged pricing climate. Ultimately we opt for prudence in the face of the storm and trim our forecast to £135m. Exhibit 7 sets out our analysis of the ‘moving parts’ the FY14 Trading Profit (EBITA) equation. The big picture remains the same as at H1. Expected good progress on Manufacturing Controllable Costs (MCC) and Procurement, plus positive mix benefits from the slower decline of Power Brands relative to Support Brands and Own Label, should deliver substantial positive benefits. Against this Premier have guided to a ‘double digit’ increase in marketing and should see some sharp volume de-leverage (where we assume a 50% contribution margin on lost volume). A sanity check on our forecast would be that our implied organic movement in gross profit is about £8m3 , which equates to a c.100bps improvement in gross margin. This compares to an improvement of 150bps in H1. So our numbers in could be conservative, particularly as we expect an even more benign input cost environment in H2 Purely and simply, it’s a question of being appropriately prudent in the face of the perfect storm. We can’t rule out that Premier might still deliver £140m of trading profit in FY14. But neither can we rule out that they might come under renewed volume and pricing pressure in Q4, or that new launches might disappoint, or that the weather might be unseasonably warm in Q4. Given that what follows this section is some fresh fundamental valuation analysis, we judge it preferable to ground this on some suitably conservative and achievable forecasts. Can the shares go any lower? It’s possible. Both the equity and enterprise valuations have been lower than this. But only during periods of acute financial distress and uncertainty. Despite the difficult near term outlook, we continue to think that PFD is undervalued at this level. The shares are under fresh pressure as we write and are down by 70% from their post-refi peak. The result is that Premier is trading on a prospective 12 month PER per the FactSet consensus of 3.5x. The market cap of £270m is less than the value of the rights issue in March. What will it take to make them go higher? A return to growth and/or better UK pension deficit macros, in a nutshell. We think the upside sensitivity to both is substantial. But we don’t expect either of these catalysts to materialise until well into 2015. Premier’s equity remains volatile and heavily sensitised to small changes in its Enterprise valuation. Every half a turn on or off the EV:EBITDA multiple will move the share price by 30%, up or down. Even without any change in the Enterprise multiple, the fact that Premier should be paying down its debt at an average rate of c. £50m pa by FY15 onwards should deliver a c.20% return to equity (the corollary of a c.20% Free Cash Flow yield). But in the current climate we suspect it will take time for the market to capitalise this into forecasts. Aside from organic debt paydown, there are to our eyes only two things that can increase the equity value: a higher Enterprise valuation or a lower pension deficit. Exhibit 9 explores the former by looking at the relevant peer comparables on a conservative basis including IAS19 deficits. Premier remains towards the bottom of the peer group and is on a slightly narrowing premium to Dairy Crest, which is heavily exposed to commodity milk and very much in the price war crosshairs. We continue to think that a modestly growing, de-leveraging Premier should be capable of trading at a modest discount to Britvic, which is similarly a UK-centric, primarily branded player. This leads us to adopt a target valuation for Premier of 9x EBITDA. This represents a half a turn reduction in our target multiple, from 9.5x, reflecting multiple compression for Britvic and the broader peer group. If the market was prepared to value Premier at 9x EBITDA this would double the equity value to £510m, equivalent to a share price of 62p. GLA twitter: @barondaytrading
jimrclark: Just been reading some articles on this LIBOR fiasco. Having spent quite a few years in financial services, it isn't surprising that this kind of activity went on. What is a surprise is that someone has been bold enough to investigate and blow the whistle. I wouldn't want to suggest that the whole system is corrupt but there are plenty of people who act without scruples and for personal gain. It makes it really difficult for minnows like us to succeed on what is not a level playing field. I've been investing for a few years and some events make you scratch your head in complete puzzlement. The recent cw. takeover by Vodafone is a prime example. How on earth was the cw. share price maintained at below 38p without manipulation? When you look at the pfd share price over the last year, the pre-consolidation share price and the share price today, the volume of trades, the lack of bad news, the encouraging signs from pfd management, you just have to wonder if the share price has been manipulated down!!
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