Powerflute Di Share Discussion Threads

[moorsie2] 27/3/2014 18:46

value investors will continue to get in here until it hits circa 36-38p

[moorsie2] 27/3/2014 15:48

Trading at a significant discount to fair market value - so no surprise to see it move towards high 30's with in the next few weeks

[riggerbeautz] 27/3/2014 13:06

Explains some of the volume then, nice and conservative price.

[rathkum] 27/3/2014 12:56

Numis starts buy on Powerflute, target 37p

[riggerbeautz] 27/3/2014 10:35

Now we are moving, decent trades going through.

[rathkum] 26/3/2014 19:15

There is always a possibility of being taken out by one of the bigger buys and additionally pays a dividend.

[riggerbeautz] 26/3/2014 18:45

This limped along for ages before, then the sudden burst late last year, it's barely a traders stock, more an investors play. Not bad to have the odd calm stock in your portfolio, unless you fear financial Armageddon of course!

[moorsie2] 26/3/2014 17:25

770k traded today - 700k at 29p buys!

the intrinsic value is there - so I expect a revaluing to take place, the question is when

[tradingcoder] 26/3/2014 13:43

There's been quite a few heavy buying days in the past 2 months but on each occasion, failed to clear 29 due to the seller. Once we do, it will shoot.

[rathkum] 26/3/2014 11:56

This thing should be moving up based on the buy volume alone. I guess there is an overhang to be cleared.

[moorsie2] 26/3/2014 09:28

Ok heres my analysis of the share price

290 shares in issue at 29p each = mkt cap of £84M

2013 Ebitda of 17.4 = a value multiple of 4.8

The market average in Europe for a multiple is 6.5 and in USA 7.5 for this industry. (Especially as the mill is recently well capex invested)

at 6.5 = £113 Mkt Cap or 39p each
at 7.5 = £130 Mkt Cap or 45p each

However that is backwards looking

2014 EBITDA estimates should be circa £22M (based on Q1 trading and average mill returns)

2014 est of £22m x 6.5 = £143 Mkt Cap or 49p each
x USA multiple = 57p each


Therefore fair value on this share is circa 50p to 55p based on 2014 projected earning and industry average multiples

A good time for new investors to get in

[moorsie2] 26/3/2014 08:50

Powerflute reports 41% growth in profits and positive outlook for 2014
DAVY VIEW
Powerflute continues to generate strong operating results based on the quality of its product and on-going improvements in its operational efficiency. The stock is trading at just over 5 times historic EBITDA, which looks cheap given the growth and margins characteristics of this business.

Powerflute reports 41% growth in 2013 EBITDA
Powerflute, which is the largest producer of semi-chemical fluting in Europe, reported EBITDA of €17.4m for FY 2013, 41% higher than the 2012 result. This was on revenues of €129.4m, 14% ahead of the prior year. Average selling prices increased by 4% to €505/tonne, while volumes sold increased by 10% to 256,000 tonnes. EBITDA margins increased to 13.4% in 2013 from 10.9% in 2012.

The company has net cash of €5.1m (down from €10.9m at the end of 2012), reflecting the substantial investment programme (capex €7.2m in 2013) undertaken by the business in 2013, €3.7m in dividends and €1.1m in finance costs.

The dividend has been increased by 4% to 1.35c.

In terms of outlook, management is upbeat with both volumes and prices well ahead of last year.

Semi-chemical is a specialist grade of containerboard that has superior strength and moisture absorption characteristics.



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[riggerbeautz] 26/3/2014 08:25

Inch higher by the look of it, maybe a bit early to judge yet. Solid though.

[moorsie2] 26/3/2014 07:25

Very strong results andQ1 2014 significantly ahead of Q1 2013!

Should re re-rated into mid to high 30's on the back of this...

[tradingcoder] 26/3/2014 07:23

Highlights

-- Revenues increased 14% to EUR129.4 million (2012: EUR113.1 million)

-- EBITDA from operating activities increased 41% to EUR17.4 million (2012: EUR12.3 million)

-- Operating profit improved 58% to EUR10.9 million (2012: EUR6.9 million)

-- Profit before tax of EUR10.0 million (2012: EUR6.3 million) ~£8.4 million @ 1.19

-- EPS of 2.8 cents per share (2012: 1.9 cents) 2.35p @ 1.19

-- Strong balance sheet with net cash of EUR5.1 million

-- 4% increase in dividend to 1.35 cents per share (2012: 1.30 cents)

"The Group has made a positive start to 2014, with volumes and prices well ahead of the same period of the prior year, and has a solid foundation from which to pursue development of its existing businesses and consider further strategic investments."

[rathkum] 25/3/2014 22:24

Forecast is for £11.13m pretax, EPS 2.5p and 1.10p div. See if they beat that.

[tradingcoder] 25/3/2014 18:23

Looking at the AT buys today towards close, I'm quietly confident about tomorrow. Hopefully the seller hanging around is nearly done.

[moorsie2] 25/3/2014 16:50

Any predictions guys for 2013 results tomorrow?

[riggerbeautz] 18/3/2014 10:57

It's been pencilled in on their website under the investor relations tab for a few weeks, few other dates on there if it helps anyone :)

[tradingcoder] 18/3/2014 10:24

And a minute after you post, we get the notice. Next Wednesday it is, 26th March.

[rathkum] 18/3/2014 09:35

Last year on 27th Feb, we had an RNS that the results announcement would be on 13th March. We wait.

[moorsie2] 28/2/2014 09:40

Strong results from Mondi today and talking about future kraftliner increases

Bodes well for 2013 results and 2014 performance here at POWR

[rathkum] 26/2/2014 21:43

I am more than happy to hold as I see this one being taken out by one of the bigger players.

[riggerbeautz] 23/2/2014 23:21

Busy thread since last checked in! Not surprising, for me these come out with an in-line report, it may pop into the low 30's either just after or before if those in the know take some.

Interesting what Henderson are doing, keeping their stake a certain level or just nibbling some decent profits? Maybe bit of both. Not harming either way.