Plus500 Share Discussion Threads

[sailing john] 27/3/2018 18:36

chucko1 - Actually fell below 335p briefly - I bought on the bell! but sold an hour later at 376 but loaded up in January 2017 at 400p when the dust had settled - was my largest position.


Interesting to look back at what Bob aka Lydnem then was saying back then! and kept repeating all the way up to 800+ when he went awol. Briefly back as El Cap - same old then awol again. He doesn't like being embarrassed!

[chucko1] 27/3/2018 18:12

It didn’t drop much further, in fact. It fell to about 335p (from about 560p). But because of the amount they buy, this is market moving, so executing at the interim lows is highly improbable. Therefore, 375p - if that is the case - is pretty reasonable. They have only tripled that portion of the money (actually more so because of all the distributed earnings). They have multiplied by around 15x their initial stake (including dividends). I cannot see that timing or shorting PLUS has a better risk/reward, certainly up to this point.

In any event, one cannot say where and when they were increasing or decreasing their IGG short, so your one-dimensional analysis is rather lacking in scope.

Over the same timeframe IGG is up 65% but with only about a third the rate of dividends that PLUS pays. It’s quite a slow Rolls Royce, I would say. (that said, I don’t mind it as an investment, and have owned it on occasions).

[sailing john] 27/3/2018 18:03

And what are those shares worth today Bob!

1120p that's about a 200% gain for Odey

AND a 200% loss for you since you were calling it short all the way UP from under 400p last year.

[bobmonkeyhouse] 27/3/2018 17:14

they bought there but it dropped much further as i predicted

[poolefox] 27/3/2018 17:13

When the concerns over regulation came in and the share price dropped to 375 last year they bought a load more

[chucko1] 27/3/2018 16:00

They bought in the IPO at 100p. Have been buying ever since until they reached their limit and have had to sell under UCITS regulations.

I presume this is irony or something on your part, Bob, rather than complete ignorance and failure to research. It can’t be the latter, I would have thought, as you have nothing further to learn.

Unless you do, as do all market operators.

[bobmonkeyhouse] 27/3/2018 15:58

not all. only some

[dennislevine] 27/3/2018 15:54

Hanbury (at Odey) bought at the IPO price in 2013 - not sure how you can buy cheaper than 115p

[bobmonkeyhouse] 27/3/2018 15:46

odey could have bought much cheaper. doesnt have a scooby

[poolefox] 27/3/2018 15:26

As a stock picker I rate James Hanbury he’s bought Stars Group and Solaredge Technologies and they’ve been flying

[chucko1] 27/3/2018 14:45

Odey see “multiplesR21; of the current share price Of course, they are far from always correct as their overall market short has demonstrated, quite painfully.

But fools they are not.

[noujay] 27/3/2018 14:19

Delighted to get this out of the way. In fact there's nothing to dent PLUS in there. The core aspects are already covered.More licenses, an increasingly regulated environment to cut out the chancers ought to see this do very nicely. With this cash generation too and some broad ambition from the board who knows where it goes. Presumably this is what Odey see in it.

[pbutterworth1] 27/3/2018 13:09

More significant (but not new) is 'we....are confident that we can become the market leading CFD provider based on new market opportunities and our excellent current performance."
I have absolutely no doubt they are on the way to reaching this objective. Even with the inevitable naysayer discount, this means a gap close between m/cap IGG £2.86bn and PLUS £1.22bn. With regs sorted its only a matter of time before PLUS moves out of AIM oiling this trend further

[pbutterworth1] 27/3/2018 13:02

Mr Market was sniffing PLUS for positive guidance, when actually what arrived was not negative and a little vague. It actually matters not......

[rogash] 27/3/2018 12:55

I am surprised the market has reacted fairly negatively as yet to this update.Liberum are still quoting a target price of over £15.

[xajorkith] 27/3/2018 12:44

Very reassuring statement from PLUS & pretty much puts this to bed imv.

Final paragraph from the CEO very encouraging:

"We recently announced record results for 2017 and a very strong start to 2018, and are confident that we can become the market leading CFD provider based on new market opportunities and our excellent current performance."

Onwards & upwards :)

[bobmonkeyhouse] 27/3/2018 12:37

Watch this space

I would never short IG. They are the rolls Royce in this sector and this is the skoda before the vw engine

[interceptor2] 27/3/2018 12:34

So here is the PLUS response, a grown up response nothing to worry about please move along. And as they say they already comply with most of the new regulations and will make adjustments where they need to.

[davebdavid] 27/3/2018 12:28

I am sure he will clarify, he just needs time to copy and paste his usual 2 line response.

[pbutterworth1] 27/3/2018 12:27

ELC/Bob - there is really serious money in the spread between IGG and PLUS today. To quote Chucko, in all seriousness why not short IG? Its certainly not too late. I smell burning there. There are large, slow, higher cost base, and having chunks taken out by PLUS. As you know its really really important not to get negatively or positively attached to any share.....

[chucko1] 27/3/2018 12:13

Bob, you stated that BGW1970 was wrong. I have read the FCA statement and it at least indicates very strongly that they would enact the ESMA measures. For how long, that is uncertain. But there was no indication of consideration of additional measures.

Or perhaps you mean something different about what was incorrect in his statement. Could you clarify?

[chucko1] 27/3/2018 12:01

Their worst case was that FCA regulation would wipe out 50% of UK earnings. So that would be 10% of Group earnings. Or less as we go forward in time.

But the regulation is nowhere near as what was initially feared a year or so back, to the extent that they actually see it as a positive (as previously stated, sorry for the repetition). And this has been “in the price” for quite a while.

For the downside case for PLUS, I would be looking elsewhere. An examination of such downside risks would be a useful contribution to this board. We are all constructive, mainly, but that does not mean we are necessarily correct.

[bobmonkeyhouse] 27/3/2018 12:00

You are wrong. Watch and learn dopey

[bgw1970] 27/3/2018 11:59

bobmonkeyhouse - I cannot resist - do you realise you wrote that more than four hours after the FCA confirmed at 07:06 that they will enact the ESMA regulations? You can find it. The FCA has a website.

To all others here - such a relief to have the ESMA statement. I think the stock at £11 is on 4.1x 2018 and 5x 2019. Now, eventually, it should get a proper rating, with the inevitable upgrades rather helping.