Plastics Capital Share Discussion Threads

[uhd] 29/3/2006 18:22

Just smashing and profitable info..

[adda] 29/3/2006 18:18

holdontight pretty unfair AJ has been spot on this one....not sure about other recs but the analysis and thread is great.........anyone taken a look at APF got a great stake in this baby.....good luck to all....by the way AJ where do you see short term price heading

[mr ashley james] 29/3/2006 13:12

Maximoney,

Because I understand John Lewins CEO of ASX:PLA is in USA, I assume not shopping, before he arrives in London later in the week.

I do not agree US Funds are early in the action, many do not buy shares below a $1.00, so it fits the criteria, refer price movements and when US players got involved in Aquarius Platinum Limited ASX:AQP or Oxiana Limited ASX:OXR.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mitzis] 29/3/2006 08:46

I'm new to this one any price targets please..

[maximoney1] 29/3/2006 08:39

Cheers ash.... but what makes you so sure about the US investors....why the 'trigger' now, for them in particular? (They are usually first to the party...not last)

[justjules] 29/3/2006 07:05

Ashley.. interesting regarding the US investors as it gapped up today here in oz and finished with only a slight pull back at the end of the day.... volume was reasonable..This share is looking better and better... :-)

[mr ashley james] 29/3/2006 01:47

Maximoney,

I have put some EW reads on Palladium on PGM Thread, I have not recently done the same for Platinum will do.



BTW I think we are quite likely to be about to see US Investors start coming into ASX:PLA so I expect some more serious movement.

Here is to hoping.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[maximoney1] 29/3/2006 00:28

Ash....a bit of hesitation in the palladium and platinum charts above....you reckon they will come back to test the 'old' resistance/ new support or do you see this 'run' gathering momentum from here?
Couldn't judge 'the next move on 'PLAA' due to volume over the last week, overbought but still looking strong on volume, so took a maiden stake in this today, with more funds lined up if we do get a retrace......would appreciate your short term view, (though i realise 2010 has a nice 'ring' to it, and by that time the share price should provide the 'catalyst' to 'convert' to profit, all going well in the interim).
cheers
maxi.

[mr ashley james] 28/3/2006 23:57

Yikyak,


Will probably use US$265 Ir and US$160 Ru to update those Panton Values:-

PLATINUM GROUP METALS PRICE BULLETIN

20th March to 24th March 2006

Johnson Matthey London Base Prices at 0800 hrs, $ per oz

Date
Platinum
Palladium
Iridium
Ruthenium

20th March
1044
319
265
160

21st March
1040
316
265
160

22nd March
1045
322
265
160

23rd March
1043
321
275
160

24th March
1043
320
295
165




Platinum



Platinum moved sharply higher at the start of the week with continuing fund interest on the back of firm gold and silver prices and the market watching developments in Zimbabwe , where the government is looking to take a 51% ownership stake in Impala's Zimplats operation. Fund net long positions in New York are less than half of what they were at the end of January, however, and there wasn't too much spring in platinum's step for the rest of the week, despite silver shooting to a 23 year high following an announcement that the American Stock Exchange could list shares in iShares Silver Trust - the first ever silver-linked exchange security. Even a rumour that the Japanese Natural Resource and Energy Agency's planned to expand its rare metal reserves failed to provide any lasting impression on the market which remained pretty much becalmed.



Palladium



Short-covering help bring prices upas palladium made modest gains until the middle of the week where it also stagnated, market bids providing support despite concerted selling on the fixes.



Iridium and Ruthenium



Both ruthenium and iridium took another hop higher at the end of the week as they saw good demand out of Asia and limited offers in the market finally took its toll.





The Platinum Group Metals Price Bulletin is supplied by Johnson Matthey Precious Metals Marketing. Johnson Matthey accepts no responsibility for errors, omissions or any action taken in reliance on the Bulletin

[holdontightuk] 28/3/2006 23:32

At least you got the right thread this time AJ! PLA is certainly proving to be one of your better recs!!

[mr ashley james] 28/3/2006 23:28

Yikyak,

Did you notice the bit about PLA Pegging ground SE of Perth that appears to host similar mineralisation to KALPLATS?



Interesting Eagle come to NPV of AU$1.13 at current Commodity prices, interested by sensitivity on Panton on much higher Pd price.

They are also projecting a 250,000 toz PGE producer by 2010 rising from 25,000 toz pa in 2006.

That could if all goes well be worth serious money by end of decade IMO.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 27/3/2006 13:04

No I think it is exclusive PLA/LMI JV no idea at all.

It is Intellectual Property I can not Value Intellectual Property it is not a quantifiable asset.

[yikyak] 27/3/2006 12:59

I wonder if PLA will ever get a listing on the TSX, I saw it mentioned somewhere but can't remember if it was just poster speculation or from Lewins himself. The market isn't exactly flooded with, in particular, palladium producers so at what level PLA ends up is anyones guess.

Ash, what value does the Panton process have outside the company, have you ever looked at it in detail?

[holdontightuk] 27/3/2006 11:44

Nice spike!

[mr ashley james] 27/3/2006 10:37

Yikyak,

Still awaiting Kalahari Platinum News I see, very tedious.

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 24/3/2006 17:24

Yikyak,

Up 10.19% in Australia overnight.





NPV Looks like AU$1.13 which pretty much dovetails with my 2006 target.

My amended short term targets per Qtr AU$0.90, AU$1.395

PGMs especially Palladium and Rhodium on a roll.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Have a Good weekend

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 24/3/2006 01:11

Yikyak,

The Article I referred to:-





DON'T BUY THE HYPE AND PALLADIUM UPDATE

Wednesday, March 22, 2006


The stock market hit a 5 year high yesterday. Across the street from where I work, a Ferrari dealership recently opened up. Throughout America, families are eating out more often, digital cable has become a basic household necessity, and flat screen televisions are flying off the shelves. At first glance, all of these signs point to a robust economy. Consumers are spending money, corporations have record profits, and relative to the other citizens of this world, Americans are living lifestyles of the rich and famous.

As picturesque as the above scenario seems, it is no wonder why your average investor is not buying into the recessionary scenario. The stock market is heading higher, their home prices have appreciated, and the Fed is continually asserting that we have minimal inflation. As a result, investors are content on focusing their current lifestyles while ignoring the much larger global economic picture that is unfolding before their eyes.

In truth, the larger global economic picture does not look good for the overall US economy. Whereas the United States was once a great manufacturing economy, we have now become the greatest debtor nation in the world. Whereas the US dollar was once the safe haven of wealth, it is now be divested from Central Banks around the globe. Whereas the average US consumer had income and savings to continually purchase goods, they are now in debt. There is no question that these major fundamental factors have to be acknowledged. Focusing solely on your immediate lifestyle is hopelessly optimistic and shortsighted.

In his testimony before Congress, Ben Bernanke stated that he will rely heavily on data to determine how the economy is fairing. It is no wonder why your average investor is complacent about the long term outlook for our economy. Bernanke's comment in itself, reaffirmed that he will likely follow in the footsteps of Alan Greenspan. Relying mostly on data is like waiting for your kid's report card to determine if he needs help on his studies. Instead of noticing that he is not doing his homework and often misses class, you decide to take a "wait and see" outlook on the economy. This "wait and see" outlook will seem blissful in the short term, but will add greater damage to the US economy in the long-term. For example, instead of working on ways to combat inflation, Bernanke will spend time touting the overall strength of the US economy and the minimal Core CPI numbers. Until inflation is blatantly obvious and we are in the midst of a recession, he will likely be in denial of the true economic state of affairs.

In the last several months, we have seen a pullback in the commodity markets. As a result, the question of whether we are in a commodity bubble has risen more often. Investors that ask this question do not really understand the reason why we have had a multi year run in the commodity markets. First and foremost, there has never been a time in history where commodity bull markets have lasted less than 15 years. At this rate, we have at least another 10 years to go. Secondly, we are living in unprecedented times. If the average investor would stop and think about what is going on around them, they would likely come to the same conclusion.

Although the US consumer is living beyond their means, one third of the world's population is industrializing. And not only are they industrializing, but they are industrializing at a record pace. With industrialization, comes the need for raw materials and commodities. With industrialization comes the creation of an educated and wealthier working class. With the creation of a wealthier class, comes more discretionary income that will be spent on consumer products and food. This, however, will not happen overnight. But it will happen. You can either jump on the commodity bull market now, or regret that you did not participate in potentially the greatest bull market in history. I am offering a free brochure titled "The Case for Commodities" to anyone who asks. You can request one here.

Palladium Update

As many of my clients and newsletter readers know, I have been extremely bullish on Palladium. My bullishness can be summed up by the opening paragraph of a commentary that I wrote seven months ago:

Whenever an asset falls in value by 80%, it has to be examined for its potential as a contrarian, value-oriented investment. Such is the case with Palladium. In
a commodity bull market, where substantial run- ups have occurred in oil, copper, precious metals, and other raw materials, palladium has escaped the notice of most investors. Even more interesting, is that the price of palladium has declined in the midst of rising demand. I believe that this trend is about to reverse, as the manufacturing community is taking notice of the substantial spread between the two metals that are similar in their industrial use. (Full Article)

Since I wrote my initial commentary, Palladium has definitely reversed its downward trend. In fact, Palladium has risen 37% in value. Although this move up might not be surprising to some, since precious metals in general have hit multiyear highs, it does represent a reversal in a metal that has lagged behind its precious metals counterparts.



Furthermore, the spread between platinum and palladium has narrowed over the last several months. When I first talked about the spread, Platinum was 4.66 times more expensive than Palladium. Today, Platinum is only 3.28 times more expensive than Palladium. Another way of looking at this is that since my initial recommendation, Palladium has moved up 37% in value, while Platinum has only moved up 10 % in value.

In either case, price differentials between these industrially similar metals are still enormous. Take a look at the updated Platinum versus Palladium chart below:



In the intermediate term, I expect Palladium prices to make a quick run towards the 340 level where it will likely encounter strong resistance. In the long term, I expect the demand for Palladium to increase exponentially. It is interesting to note, that from 1996 to 2000, Palladium was the primary metal of choice for autocatalytic convertors. After Palladium prices hit a record high in 2001, the demand for platinum increased. I see this trend reversing in the next several years.

If you are interested in participating in the Palladium Bull Market please contact me here

If you are interested in receiving my weekly commodity newsletter please sign up here.

Emanuel Balarie
Senior Market Strategist
[e-mail]

[Abuse team] 20/3/2006 15:50

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[mr ashley james] 20/3/2006 15:49

Well done Compound up!

[compoundup] 20/3/2006 15:41

Opened a small long in PLAA. Don't hit me Ash for not trading in Aus - I can't be bothered with currency risk and other baggage of overseas dealing, besides I was able to get inside the ridiculous spread, reducing it to a merely scandalous 6%.

[mr ashley james] 20/3/2006 12:00

YikYak,

Yes I agree they (Norilsk Nickel/Gokhran) drove Palladium to US$1,100 per toz last time in less than three years between 1998 and 2001 from where it is now roughly.



All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[yikyak] 20/3/2006 09:52

I feel a genuine if not a perceived shortage coming on at some stage which, as you say, could prove pretty explosive for palladium. With palladium 'producers' so limited they could command quite a premium going forward.

"it would be incorrect to say that one company, even if it does control 50% of the palladium market, can correct metal prices through some statements."

Oh yes they can!

[mr ashley james] 20/3/2006 03:04

More to read tomorrow Half Yearly Accounts



No rest for the Wicked it appears.

Night all.

Cheers

Ash:)

[Abuse team] 19/3/2006 21:18

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