Plastics Capital Share Discussion Threads

[mr ashley james] 11/1/2006 02:56

HectorP,

Could you edit your last post please.

The good news is ASX:PLA is on a six month chart break out as expected.

Enjoy the ride chill.

Come back in 2 years a rich man.

Cheers

Ash:)

[praipus] 06/1/2006 22:44

Thanks Ash.

[mr ashley james] 06/1/2006 18:00

Praipus,

Probably the best broker to buy ASX Stocks through in London because they are open until 9.00pm to 9.30pm for pre ASX Opening are TD Waterhouse I would think, sorry do not disclose brokers I use but generally TD are better positioned to service the sensible UK Overseas Mining markets investors and traders than many especially the TSE and TSX ie Canadian markets.

BTW My gut feeling is ASX:PLA will hit AU$0.41 then AU$0.445 from Monday am opening on back of US$10.00 rises in Platinum and Palladium on NYMEX

I am expecting AU$0.46 then possibly AU$0.585 by end January 2006

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[praipus] 04/1/2006 17:46

Which broker do you use to buy these or for that matter any Australian stocks?

[mr ashley james] 01/1/2006 22:57

PLATINUM JANUARY 2006



Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM Sell

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Sell
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Hold
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold

Short Term Indicators Average: 20% - Sell
20-Day Average Volume - 2485

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Sell

Medium Term Indicators Average: 25% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 1796

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy

Long Term Indicators Average: 67% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 1734

Overall Average: 8% - Buy

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

973.0 958.3 969.8 981.3

PALLADIUM MARCH 2006



Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM Sell

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Sell
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Hold
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Sell
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold

Short Term Indicators Average: 20% - Sell
20-Day Average Volume - 1189

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Sell

Medium Term Indicators Average: 25% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 1688

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy

Long Term Indicators Average: 67% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 1547

Overall Average: 8% - Buy

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

261.50 251.30 259.20 267.10

[mr ashley james] 23/12/2005 20:51

Tomorrow's Gold?
Puru Saxena
15 Dec, 2005

The majority of precious metals are at record-highs. Platinum, gold as well as silver are soaring due to the excessive liquidity floating around the planet. Money supply growth is rising fast in most nations today and this sector has been the biggest beneficiary.

Despite the ongoing bull-market in precious metals, palladium has (so far) not joined in the party and here lies a fantastic investment opportunity. Palladium is a precious metal, one of the platinum group metals (PGM), which are typically are found in ore deposits.

In my opinion, palladium is getting ready to march ahead. Palladium's bear-market, which lasted roughly five years, is now over and a new bull-market is underway.

In order to make profitable investment decisions, it always pays to study the primary drivers behind prices - supply and demand. In the case of palladium, supply and demand dynamics are getting better and this should translate into much higher prices.

On the supply side, Russia is by far the world's largest producer of palladium, followed by South Africa and North America. A few years ago, Russia caused a supply shock by declaring that it would not sell palladium in the following year. This announcement caused prices to spike and palladium peaked in early 2001 at $1,050/ounce.



On the demand side, catalytic converters for automobiles constitute roughly 50% of palladium's use while jewellery, electronics and dental-work make up the rest.

A catalytic converter is a metallic device, which is implanted in automobiles to reduce harmful carbon emissions. Depending on prices and availability, auto manufacturers often switch between palladium and platinum as both can be used to build catalytic converters. One thing is for sure, the demand for catalytic converters can only go up from here as the 2.4 billion Chinese and Indians start buying more automobiles as they become more affluent.

As palladium prices jumped higher on the Russian news five years ago, auto manufacturers dumped expensive palladium in favour of platinum, which was still relatively cheap. As demand for palladium dried up, it caused a severe decline in prices (as falling demand always does) and the metal went down to $170/ounce recorded earlier this year. In other words, the price of palladium fell by an astronomical 85% from its peak! On the other hand, as the demand for platinum grew bigger, its price headed north. Today, platinum trades above $1,000/ounce compared to palladium, which is much cheaper at $270/ounce. So, the situation has now reversed in favour of palladium and (once again) auto manufacturers are starting to choose the cheaper substitute, which will push palladium's demand, hence price to appreciate in the future.

Moreover, palladium's demand for white-metal jewellery is also rising rapidly in China where the growing middle class is embracing this high purity and relatively affordable metal. In fact, the manufacture of jewellery has now become the second biggest application for palladium as demand surges to 1.43 million ounces this year - a result of a more than 70% increase in the production of palladium jewellery in China!





Source: Johnson Matthey

To put things in perspective, last year's annual supply of palladium was 7.9 million ounces whereas total demand came in at 6.5 million ounces. This created a massive surplus causing prices to drop below $200/ounce. This year, demand for palladium is forecast to rise by 400,000 ounces to 6.9 million ounces. Most of this growth will be due to a rise in purchases of the metal for jewellery in China. Supply of palladium will drop however by an estimated 370,000 ounces to 7.5 million ounces. The previous year's surplus will therefore be cut by more than 50% to roughly 600.000 ounces.

Markets forecast the future and tend to move in anticipation of the news. Accordingly, palladium has already started climbing and has appreciated by almost 30% over the past month alone! So, you can see that favourable shifts in supply and demand have started the new bull-market in palladium, which is still in its early days. Other precious metals such as gold, platinum and silver are at record-highs whereas palladium is still trading at a 75% discount compared to its peak recorded in 2001. This situation is unsustainable and palladium should play "catch up" over the months ahead. If my assessment is correct, the price of palladium could rise significantly and the metal may turn out to be the best performing investment you ever made.

Experienced investors can consider investing in long-dated futures contracts or you can buy physical palladium bullion. Another way to participate is by investing in shares of palladium producing companies, which will go through the roof as palladium's bull-market gathers steam. Most of such shares went down dramatically during palladium's four-year bear-market and have only started rising. My advice is to select companies, which have a large quantity of palladium reserves in their mines. Their stock price should rise exponentially as palladium becomes more expensive. Finally, this is a generational bull-market in commodities, which has a long way to go.

[mr ashley james] 22/12/2005 16:58

Drilling Report

RNS Number:1266W
Platinum Australia Limited
22 December 2005


Platinum Australia Limited
22nd December, 2005

Resource Drilling Program Completed at Smokey Hills PGM Project

Platinum Australia Limited (ASX: PLA) is pleased to announce that it has
completed the resource definition drilling program for 2005 on the Smokey Hills
Project with results continuing to confirm our target of up to 1 million ounces
4E PGM* in UG2 reef.

The latest assay results for a further four diamond drill holes have now been
received with the following intersections:

SHDD-26 9.42 g/t 4E PGM over 0.51 m from 108.84 m
SHDD-27 10.06 g/t 4E PGM over 0.22 m from 8.94 m (Core loss due
to weathering)
SHDD-28 Results Pending
SHDD-29 Results Pending
SHDD-30 8.82 g/t 4E PGM over 0.59 m from 25.27 m
SHDD-31 10.62 g/t 4E PGM over 0.58 m from 41.45 m

A total of 56 holes as shown in the attached plan, have now been drilled on the
project, including 3 from the initial program. Results for the first 25 holes
have been previously released. It is anticipated that all results from the
drilling will be available by mid January and that the initial resource estimate
will be available in early February.

PLA Managing Director John Lewins said: "The completion of this resource
definition drilling program marks the first major step in the completion of the
Bankable Feasibility Study on the Smokey Hills Project. While we are still
awaiting a significant number of results, those received have been very
encouraging and have confirmed our view of the project in terms of continuity,
grade and thickness of the UG2 reef. We can now look forward to having the JORC
compliant resource completed in the New Year by our independent consultants,
Snowden."

PLA has also completed an extensive program of channel sampling on the outcrop
of both hills and from a slot cut into the southern hill, the results of which
are summarised below:

Northern Hill Average: 0.56 m @ 7.38 g/t 4E PGM
Southern Hill Average: 0.58 m @ 7.60 g/t 4E PGM
Slot Average: 0.56 g/t @ 7.69 g/t 4E PGM


In addition PLA has mined a small bulk sample from an adit in the southern hill
which was developed by the previous owners and provides approximately 30 metres
of exposure of UG2 reef some 40 metres below surface. This sample will be used
for the metallurgical test work program which has commenced at the Mintek
Metallurgical Laboratories in Johannesburg, South Africa.

The Smokey Hills target is based on previous mapping at the project which
identified six kilometres of outcropping PGM bearing UG2 reef. Sampling of the
reef outcrops and the results from three diamond drill holes have confirmed the
well-established continuity of the UG2 reef, which is mined over tens of
kilometres in numerous mines.

While this target is of a conceptual nature and does not imply that a mineral
resource has been or will be defined, the results from the current drilling have
significantly increased the confidence in the potential of the project.

Qualification Statement

We confirm that exploration results contained in this report are based on
information compiled by Tony Greenaway, Geology & Resources Manager of Platinum
Australia Limited, who is a member of The Australasian Institute of Mining and
Metallurgy.

Tony Greenaway has sufficient experience which is relevant to the style of
mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity which
he is undertaking, to qualify as a competent person as defined in the 2004
edition of the 'Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral
Resources and Ore Reserves'. Tony Greenaway consents to the inclusion in the
report of the matters based on his information in the form and context in which
it appears.

Paste the following link into your web browser to download the PDF document
related to this announcement:



-The End-


For further information:
John Lewins, MD, Platinum Australia [phone],
0419 910 061
Media enquiries:

Ron Marshman/John Greenhalgh, City of London PR, [phone]

Sarah Allchurch, Allchurch Communications [phone]
0412 346 412





This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
END
DRLFEEFIESISESE

[mr ashley james] 15/12/2005 19:30

Minews Story Date: December 16, 2005

Anglo Pacific Plays Key Role In Deal Between Platinum Australia And Sally Malay Mining.

Anglo Pacific Group is a small investment house with a full listing on the London Stock Exchange. Its engine room is royalties from two coal mines in Queensland which provide useful cash flow, but what it is really about is investing in resource stocks. Like AIM listed Golden Prospect it has a series of core investments as well as a portfolio of trading stocks, and what it is very good at is providing corporate advice for companies in which it has shares. Thus the deal recently announced between Sally Malay Mining and Platinum Australia has the finger prints of Anglo Pacific all over it.

Anglo Pacific has a holding of just over 18 per cent in Platinum Australia which listed recently on AIM. Just as background Platinum Australia, in which Lonmin then had a 44.3 per cent stake, failed to clear its own financial hurdles for the Panton platinum and palladium project in the far north of Western Australia, so decided to move the technology developed in its studies to the home of platinum, South Africa. No fault of the company, it was hit by a double whammy of a rising Australian dollar and weakness in the price of palladium. Shortly after that Lonmin decided to sell its shares and Anglo Pacific played a useful role in placing them.

Now things are rather different with platinum sitting at US$950/oz and palladium at US$250/oz which makes for a combined price of US$600/oz as Panton is a 50:50 platinum palladium project. Brian Wides of Anglo Pacific therefore suggested to John Lewins, chief executive of Platinum Australia, that a deal should be stitched together to revitalise the Panton project by utilising spare plant capacity at the Sally Malay nickel mine which is about 60 kms south down the Northern Highway. It goes without saying that the engineering expertise proven by Peter Harold and his team at Sally Malay is key to this deal.

Sally Malay has now agreed to fund a two stage feasibility study to determine whether high grade PGM ore from Panton could be processed through the Sally Malay plant to produce a PGM rich concentrate for export through Wyndham to PGM refineries overseas. Under the terms of the letter agreement, Sally Malay will spend up to A$750,000 to complete a two stage feasibility study to review the economics of this new project and investigate the market for such a PGM concentrate.

If the feasibility study is positive and a number of other conditions are satisfied, Sally Malay can earn a 50 per cent interest in the first 1.5 million tonnes of high grade PGM ore mined from Panton and rights to 50 per cent of additional Panton ore to be treated through the Sally Malay plant, subject to certain agreed conditions. The study will include investigating the expected metallurgical recoveries of the Panton ore through the Sally Malay plant, any plant modifications required to achieve acceptable metallurgical recoveries and the typical specifications of the proposed PGM concentrate that could be produced.

The Panton project has an estimated resource of 14.3 million tonnes at an average grade of 5.2 g/t of seven platinum group metals including gold, rhodium, rutile, iridium and osmium, to give 2.4 million contained ounces and over three quarters of this resource grades as high as 6.1 g/t 7E PGMs. It is still early days, but both Sally Malay and Platinum Australia are hopeful that they can make money out of the project. Peter Harold says he is delighted to have the opportunity to participate in the potential development of this world class PGM rich orebody and John Lewins looks forward to sharing 50 per cent of the upside created. Work on Stage 1 of the study has already started and progress will be well worth monitoring as Brian Wides will certainly be doing.

[mr ashley james] 12/12/2005 18:24

Penrose,

Platinum hitting US$1009 and Palladium US$295 today is not going to do ASX:PLA any harm at all.

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 11/12/2005 17:16

YikYak,

I have sat and analysed the figures, and have to some extent changed my mind on basis of the usage of Sally Malay plant nearby, the effective reduction on Project Finance Side and my hatred of Bankers Project Finance Packages and Warrant Structures, my belief that 50% of a profit with minimal debt, is preferable to a highly geared play.

I would have preferred that ASX:PLA waited until Palladium exceeded US$350 but we can also argue that to take full advantage of a rising commodity price they needed to act now and make the transformation from Developer to Producer and the share price Rerating this could cause.

In a way Sally Malay ASX:SMY is a vote of confidence.

Now our cost of this JV let us put it against for the sake of arguement a US$85M CAPEX cost plus Concentrate shipping charges or offtake agreements with AMPLATS, JSE:AMS, Impala Refining Co Rustenberg JSE:IMP or for the brave using Russian refiners of which there are 5 or doing a deal with Sudbury in Canada.

We lose 1,500,000 Metric Tonnes of Ore, at I assume a Top Reef grade of around 2.50g/t Pt 2.90 g/t Pd and 0.40 g/t Au, plus 0.30% Ni and 0.10% Cu

A gramme of Pt is US$31.99, of Pd US$9.13, Gold US$16.92 ie PGE Content around US$79.98 Pt, + US$26.48 Pd + US$6.37 Au, Base Metals Cu at US$4,956Mt and Ni US$13,620 Mt gives us base metals of Cu US4.57 per Mt and Ni US$24.18 per Mt

A Mt of Rock thus contains approximately US$141.60 Contained Metal Value of which overall recovery assuming Panton Process unlikely to exceed 80% say US$113.28 per Mt

The 100% Revenue on 1,500,000 Mt of Ore might be US$169,927,200, and my gut feeling is this is a five year deal if ASX:SMY have plant production capacity of 300,000 Mt pa

ASX:PLA lose probably US$84,963,600 of Revenue over five years say US$16,992,720 pa but gain the same amount in production revenues via retained 50% JV

Logically it would have cost them the same amount to build their own plant, so in reality sensible move IMO.

We avoid the debt, the deal is just first 1,500,000 Mt on balance I think I like the deal.

I still think it makes both ASX:SMY and ASX:PLA a buy logically both benefit one ASX:SMY by reducing operating costs at full plant capacity and the other ASX:PLA with a rerating as a Producer with near term cash flows.

I therefore change my call to bullish on both stocks, indeed if you think about it it really makes a serious difference after you have thought about the numbers.

If I am correct and ASX:PLA will have a revenue of US$16,992,720 pa, if I assume total operating costs around US$75 per Mt leaving gross profit of maybe US$38.28 per Mt say 33.79% Net Profit with undoubtedly no tax for some time as writing Exploration and Development costs off I can see a US$5,742,091 profit from this deal pa, and think my short term targets might increase from AU$0.515 to AU$1.05 including 50% of Panton retained JV assuming as/if 15 x PER on 160m shares roughly fully diluted.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[hectorp] 10/12/2005 19:00

Yes I see its the ASH thread all right ! lol.

[pecker1] 10/12/2005 18:53

yiyak,

Thanks for this important info and thanks also for saving me the cost of phoning Oz!

An altogether far clearer and more convincing justification for the JV deal than appeared in the original announcement. It answers fair and square my main concern of what happens after the first 1.5m tonnes. The penultimate para of John Lewins response to you makes clear that PLA has kept its options open, and can choose what's best depending on the circumstances at the time.

FWIW, I now feel they have negotiated a pretty good deal for shareholders. But I'll stick to topping up in Oz rather than on AIM for the reasons Ash has given.

[hectorp] 10/12/2005 18:48

Better and safer in AQP!
sorry Ash not backing this one.

[yikyak] 10/12/2005 18:27

Sally Malay.

· They have successfully built and operated an nickel sulphide mine and plant in the Kimberley region;

· They have some very good people working for them who have construction and operating experience, some of whom I know personally (Note the Chairman up until July was Keith Liddell who was the CEO at Aquarius when they started Kroondal);

· The operation is generally going well and they have made a project work which was previously considered non economic;

· They have established a good relationship with their Chinese customers, who provided part of the finance to get the project going;

· Their open pit finishes second quarter next year and their underground will only supply ~500,000 tpa leaving spare capacity of ~300,000 tpa;

· The Sally Malay flotation plant should be able to treat Panton material with some modifications to the milling and float circuit; and

· They are the nearest operation to Panton.





Advantages to PLA:



· We have the potential to commence operations at Panton by early 2007;

· The capital cost to start operations is significantly reduced by using the Sally Malay plant and infrastructure;

· The operating costs benefit from being based on a larger 800,000 tpa operation, although we will only be treating 300,000 tpa. This should offset the transport costs with change;

· The Sally Malay plant is 60 km along a sealed road from Panton;

· The agreement leaves PLA management free to focus on developing the South African projects, while still getting the advantage of bringing an Australian project into production – consider we now effectively have three projects in feasibility study which is a significant challenge for any company (note that Aquarius even after the success of Kroondal, still had to develop Marikana and Everest South sequentially);

· The Project Risk is reduced due to

o Joint Venture (shared risk);

o Involvement of proven operator in the region;

o Treatment through an existing operation;

o Smaller initial project;

o Ability to carry out plant trial prior to commitment to development;

o Ability to get into production more quickly and hedge production if required;

· The agreement provides an opportunity to commercialise the Panton Process on a smaller scale with less associated risk; and

· The agreement covers an initial 1.5 million tonnes of a total high grade resource of over 14 million tonnes and provides PLA with flexibility for future development at Panton.

[mr ashley james] 09/12/2005 03:22

No I do not (nor any longer looking to invest in London Listed Mining Shares)

[jed tinsel] 09/12/2005 03:12

Mornin' Ash,

Do you have any thoughts on SCR (South China Resources), they have unusually high grades of molybdenum and are awaiting assay results.

TIA,

Jed

[mr ashley james] 09/12/2005 03:07

YikYak,

Ignoring your protestations we just invested our profits in Platinum Australia limited ASX:PLA in Sally Malay Limited ASX:SMY Nothing personal just business.

Cheers

Ash:)

[yikyak] 08/12/2005 21:47

If you could let me know what was said I would appreciate it.

I take your point though, as ever it's all in the detail. If palladium does start hitting $500 plus I don't think we would be that bothered by that time as the stockprice, in theory, would be significantly higher, having producer status and be well advanced / funded regarding ZA assets. That's my thinking at this time anyway. I am not that bothered to be honest if SM are offered a little more blue sky and if I were in their shoes I would push as hard as I could to get if the relationship was working and all were making money. They know full well that their plant could fast-track PLA onto the radar screens of investors looking for a palladium producers (very few) with plenty of blue sky to look forward to.

To get the ball rolling it may turn out to be a shrewd deal, it very much depends by next year if we are throwing palladium onto the market at much higher levels than today. In the end though that's what we are all banking on.

The problem in having an asset that lays dormant is even if we got palladium at $1000 plus the banks would still take the same view and you still have the delay to production, something PLA have experience of.......... 'Look what happened last time' they would cry. Also other producers would be unlikely to buy the asset for the very same reasons, at least until the market decides the risk of volatility has reduced and prices obtain some stability.

Better to take a percentage of something that sit on 100% of nothing?

:-)

[pecker1] 08/12/2005 19:29

yikyak,

re your last 3 paras - you offer some good reasons for the deal. For me, the turn-off was the apparent ease with which the JV could be extended after the first 1.5m tonnes. The Announcement says it "may be extended to cover further parcels of ore". Providing PLA have built in appropriate clauses to give them freedom to renegotiate the terms if palladium is, say $500+ per oz by then, I would be much more relaxed about the deal. So a phone call to Oz it will be.