Plastics Capital Share Discussion Threads

[mr ashley james] 19/3/2006 21:13

Yikyak,

Interesting information that might help Panton considerably.

With reference to Frank McCallister's comments at Nesbitt Burns Resource Conference, the Russian statement about 877,000 troy ounce Pd purchase of SWC Shares.

Here is a very interesting short article from Russia that would add meat to the bone on my Bull Call on Palladium and My Perception that there are no stockpiles left, or very little:-



Norilsk Nickel sells off palladium without setting up reserves

The market did not react immediately to a March 3 statement from metals giant Norilsk Nickel that the company lacked surplus palladium, a rare-earth metal. Unsurprised analysts predicted long-term positive trends for the palladium market in connection with the announcement. Denis Morozov, a Norilsk Nickel deputy general director, said the holding, which produces 50% of the world's palladium, aimed to sell all products and not to stockpile any reserves.
A troy ounce of palladium, which had cost over $1,000 until 2001, did not exceed $210 in 2005. Many analysts therefore said palladium was under priced. This is hardly surprising because production exceeded demand in the last five years.
"The world's largest palladium producer will be unable to balance the market in the event of upheavals and greater palladium demand because it lacks surplus metal stocks," said Stanislav Kleshchev, head of analysis at Financial Bridge, and predicted possible palladium shortages this year.
Apart from Norilsk Nickel, palladium is owned by Gokhran, Russia's state depository for precious metals and gemstones. "The state possibly no longer has any strategic palladium reserves," Kleshchev told the paper.
"Palladium stocks were liquidated in 2003, after Norilsk Nickel bought 55% of shares from Stillwater Mining Company [of the United States]," said Morozov. "In all, 877,000 ounces of palladium were exchanged for that share package. However, he continued, "it would be incorrect to say that one company, even if it does control 50% of the palladium market, can correct metal prices through some statements."

I read this as explosive news technically for Palladium Price logically.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[yikyak] 17/3/2006 16:52

Palladium research could help forge new materials - 16th March 2006

Read more about the platinum group metals markets in Johnson Matthey's bi-annual reviews click here.
Chemists at Duke University have discovered a way to speed up complex chemical reactions using palladium, potentially creating a means to develop new polymers that can heal themselves after tearing.

Using an atomic force microscope (AFM) tip the students were able to exert tiny tugs on a molecular complex made of pyridine and the pgm palladium.

"We probed a reaction in which a bond was being made and a bond was being broken by pulling on the bond being broken with an atomic force microscope," explained assistant Duke chemistry professor Stephen Craig.

"As a bond breaks, it stretches," he said. "The distance between the atoms gets further and further. And we could infer from the behaviour of this experiment that the rate of the reaction speeded up."

He said that his group's findings are compatible with some central ideas about how energy is exchanged in chemical reactions, and could lead to "a more sophisticated understanding of the way reactions happen at their most fundamental levels".

Professor Craig also said that further studies into the order and consequences of chemical bond-breaking could support the discovery of new materials.

"Someone might try to design certain types of molecules that would respond to mechanical stresses by breaking in a way that's desirable," he explained.

The group's research could aid studies on self-healing polymers, molecules in the early stages of development that could release chemicals to repair tears and cracks.


© Adfero Ltd

[Abuse team] 15/3/2006 20:24

Post removed by ADVFN

[mr ashley james] 15/3/2006 20:22

Charlie,

I think this is going to convince a few people to take another look at Panton!

I believe worth a reasonable amount longer term, if only IMO AU$0.15 on ASX:SMY JV IMO

June Palladium PAO6M Looking very bullish to me:-





PAM6 - PALLADIUM June 2006 (NYMEX)
Date Open High Low Last Change
03/15/06 305.00 323.00 301.10 318.30 +12.20


Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM Buy

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold

Short Term Indicators Average: 80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 2625

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Sell

Medium Term Indicators Average: 50% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 1998

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 1847

Overall Average: 80% - Buy

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

306.10 293.43 304.13 314.83

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 13/3/2006 04:42

Yikyak,

As if and when Ruthenium is worth something I will be interested to see the reaction

0.90g/t Ruthenium lovely stuff!



Being serious really appreciate detail Lewins goes to.

Like the professionalism!

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash(;-)0

[pecker1] 07/3/2006 09:32

yikyak,

Apart from the BFS on Smokey Hills, I expect what will propel this share this year is confirmation of the licence for the Kalplats extension and subsequent exploration drilling that shows up the grade/resource potential. If the palladium price continues upwards we should also get news re the panton JV.

[yikyak] 07/3/2006 09:19

'I am interested to find out which broker notes going around saying what'.

Me to, I understand a lot of interest was shown at Indaba and the volume of late seems to confirm growing recognition of PLA. Smokey hills above expectation, nice.

Does make you wonder where the stock price will be in a few years time as the company is looking increasingly slick and consistent in it's delivery. Long may it continue.

[capntubs] 07/3/2006 07:28

Morning Ash - nice update on Smokey Hills this am :-)

[mr ashley james] 06/3/2006 03:37

Yikyak,

We need to try to track down the Kalplats and Smokey Hills updates the ASX trading still strong and I am interested to find out which broker notes going around saying what.

Delayed share price
Prices are delayed by at least 20 minutes. Retrieving any price indicates your acceptance of the Conditions.

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
PLA 0.585 3.54% 0.585 0.590 0.585 0.595 0.575 1,100,273


Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 03/3/2006 04:20

Chart Break Out to AU$0.575 Very respectable.

Interesting read by the way:-

[mr ashley james] 02/3/2006 17:18

Yikyak,

The top Panton Reef grades are apparently:-

Pt 2.51 g/t
Pd 2.91 g/t
Au 0.40 g/t
Os 0.077 g/t
Ir 0.055 g/t
Rh 0.057 g/t
Ru 0.119 g/t

Total 6.13 g/t

Will try to do correct PGE Metric Tonne Rock values tomorrow if I can get accurate Irridium, Osmium and Ruthenium Commodity prices.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[pecker1] 28/2/2006 15:57

And by the time it does go into production, what price palladium? My hunch would be some way above $400 and climbing. Expect Chinese offtake for jewellery and auto-catalysts will be crucial - interesting to see a slight increase in the rate of yuan revaluation against the US$.

[mr ashley james] 28/2/2006 15:47

Wendy Durham,

Ref your comments re Panton I think you need to revisit them in light of following:-

Base Case US$350 per toz Pd ie US$11.25 per gramme, US$700 Pt per toz ie US$22.50 per gramme and US$350 toz Au ie US$11.25 per gramme per BFS

Base Case PMs

Platinum at 2.20 g/t=US$49.50 per Mt
Palladium at 2.40 g/t=US$27.00 per Mt
Gold at 0.30 g/t=US$3.375 per Mt

Total US$79.88 per Mt

Exchange Rate US$0.60 to AU$1.00 ie AU$133.13 per Mt with then current Copper and Nickel Bi Product Credits.

Current Actual Value:-

Platinum US$1,044 per toz, ie US$33.57 per gramme 2.20 g/t=US$73.84 per Mt
Palladium US$285 per toz, ie US$9.16 per gramme 2.40 g/t=US$21.99 per Mt
Gold US$556.10 per toz, ie US$17.88 per gramme 0.30 g/t=US$5.36 per Mt

Total per Mt Precious Metals ex Nickel and Copper US$101.19 per Mt ie plus 26.68% on Base Case 10 Year Mine BFS

Base Metals

Nickel 0.30% at US$14,820 per Mt=US$44.46 per Mt
Copper 0.08% at US$4,975 per Mt=US$3.98 per Mt

Total Bi Products US$48.44 per Mt

Aggregate US$149.63 lowest grade diluted over both Top and Lower reefs

Exchange Rate AU$0.74=US$1.00

Precious Metals AU$136.74 per Mt
Base Metals AU$65.46 per Mt

Combined AU$202.20 per Mt

The Point being that both your Precious Metals total and with sizeable roughly 47.87% Bi Product Credits are through the 10 year life of Mine BFS Study numbers in Australian Dollars AU$133.13 per Mt across the whole orebody never mind selective mining of just the high grade middle reef.

In my opinion, and I am pretty certain BFS would back this up Panton is now full scale technically economically Feasible as both an Open Pit and Underground Mine at current Commodity Prices, Exchange Rates even with Australian Dollar Labour Rates.

So bluntly I believe that Panton is undoubtedly now going into production with JV with Sally Malay Limited ASX:SMY a valuable asset and needs to be incorporated in a Valuation of ASX:PLA Assets.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 27/2/2006 16:26

Yiyak,

More attention to AIM Listing coming in now on AIM:PLAA

Going to do some more numbers on Panton when I get chance to compare Basket Price and Aussie Dollar economics.

The key problem here is Labour Cost in Australia Fly in Fly out, typical Unit Labour Cost circa AU$100,000 pa say US$75,000 pa versus RSA at AU$20,000 pa say US$15,000 pa.

Labour is 500% in Australia of RSA bluntly.

I think however it needs to be noted at US$1,031 Platinum per toz, Gold US$553.40 Nickel at US$14,820 Mt and Copper US$4,975 per Mt Project will look vastly more robust even if Palladium is just US$282 per toz so far.

Ramps and Declines are going to be pretty costly at around AU$3,000/US$2,225 per metre Length, I come to around US$88.88 per Cubic Metre a good 78% to 137% above my RSA Cost base due Labour intensity to Engineer.

The Bottom Line is the A and C Decline would cost quite a lot to construct I think I do not know depth yet, but I am guessing to 500 metres, at a 1 in 7 to 1 in 9.

I assume the Sally Malay JV will concentrate on Open Pit Mine first up.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[yikyak] 24/2/2006 09:57

3,284,940 volume?

Volume data says the above on ADVFN and ASX but breakdown of individual trades comes in a lot lower, anyone?

Edit: it was just a blip and has corrected.

[mr ashley james] 24/2/2006 03:42

Panton US$1.35167=AU$1.00 Inverse AU$0.739923=US$1.00

Check Palladium Price
Check Platinum Price
Check Gold Price

Check Nickel Price
Check Copper Price

All in Both AU$ and US$ Terms to calculate Full Scale Economic Viability Full Scale Mining Point reference Bankable Feasibility Study Numbers, ie Basket PGM Price and Operating Costs in Both Currencies.

Base Case US$350 per toz Pd ie US$11.25 per gramme, US$700 Pt per toz ie US$22.50 per gramme and US$350 toz Au ie US$11.25 per gramme per BFS

FEASIBILITY STUDY

Mining

The Mining Study as completed by AMC Consultants envisages an initial development of an open cut mine followed by the sequential development of two underground mines commencing in the second year of the project. The mining rate would be 600,000 tonnes per annum and mine life will be dependent on the metal prices and US$ exchange rate.

For example, at a palladium price of US$350, platinum price of US$700, gold price of US$350 and exchange rate of US$0.60, a mine life of approximately 10 years is estimated.

The underground mining operation would be developed as two separate mines accessed through independent declines. The A mine accessing the A and B sub blocks would be developed first, followed by the C mine which would access the BC and C sub blocks. Mining would be mechanised using a long hole, up-hole stoping method.

[yikyak] 23/2/2006 19:48

US scientists use palladium to filter pure gas - 23rd February 2006

Read more about the platinum group metals markets in Johnson Matthey's bi-annual reviews click here.
A new reactor developed by US scientists could hold the key to extending the life of autocatalysts.

Work being pioneered by chemical engineering professor, Yi Hua Ma, has concentrated on some of the obstacles preventing the efficacy of automotive fuel cells.

By using a reactor that works with a fine layer of palladium Professor Ma is able to reduce the 'poison' effect on the catalyst which ultimately prevents it from functioning properly when fuelling vehicles.

Working together with Shell International Exploration & Production and Shell Hydrogen, the American scientist has successfully created an effective pgm filter.

The filter prevents anything but pure hydrogen from passing through, meaning the catalyst at the heart of the cell lasts longer and works more effectively.

Shell says it is hoping to make the device the centrepiece of its hydrogen automotive strategy within a decade, with clean automotive technology becoming increasingly advanced.

Only this week a new technique using nano-scale pieces of copper and platinum wire was revealed, which would enable scientists to develop a fuel cell just 200 nanometers in width.


© Adfero Ltd

[mr ashley james] 21/2/2006 03:11

Adda,

Anglo Pacific 17.50% per recent ASX Disclosures, and Smith Newcourt LP Hedge Fund 18.50% per recent disclosures.

No ASX Press releases to say these have changed.

I doubt either are unaware of long term intrinsic value so no reason to doubt holdings less currently than stated then.

If so 36.00% in tight hands for time it takes to make three mines and next Aquarius Platinum Plc ASX:AQP 84 Bagger in roughly 8 Years IMHO.

Or with Momentum in a Bull Resource Market hopefully Faster IMO.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[adda] 20/2/2006 09:21

nice move, is that wht one would refer to as a breakout. Does anyone know how many of these Anglo Pacific have?

[mr ashley james] 17/2/2006 21:45

Yikyak,

According to ASX Correct number of shares 155,264,607 plus 5,797,129 Options at a AU$0.20 Strike per 9th December 2005



Will update header accordingly.

I come to market capitalisation of AU$68,316,427 at AU$0.44 or AU$70,867,164 Fully diluted.

At ROE AU$2.35603 =£1.00 £28,996,416 seems peanuts for interests in three Platinum Group Metals Mines of the Future ie Panton, Kalplats and Smokey Hills.

Reckon we should see AU$0.455, then AU$0.495, AU$0.5050 then AU$0.555, then AU$0.665 within a month in view current PGM Price curve IMHO

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)