Plastics Capital Share Discussion Threads

[wiganer] 26/9/2005 21:11

Ashley- any views on use of palladium in fuel cells?

[mr ashley james] 26/9/2005 20:51

Wiganer,

Well lets look at it from a common sense angle, if the lowest cost producer in the World is probably LSE:AQP ie AQPSA's Mimosa Platinum in Zimbabwe with Cash costs of US$141 per toz or Total Production Costs of US$191 per troy ounce net of Copper and Nickel Bi Product Credits, and the whole PGM Industry have Production Costs of US$215 Cash Costs plus, how can anybody afford to mine it below these levels?

Common Sense says Palladium can not stay below US$225/US$250 per toz, and in reality Arbitrageurs will buy Palladium back up to Floor Level of US/Japanese Automotive Off take Agreements around US$350 per toz.

So to me being a Palladium Bull is pure Common Sense, Palladium logically must increase 75% plus short term as long as Vladimir Potanin does not want it to, and that also makes no sense at all now via MSE:GMKN and AMEX:SWC he totally controls at least 75% of Global Pd Production.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[wiganer] 26/9/2005 20:37

Another Palladium bull here. Still a small group though...

[mr ashley james] 26/9/2005 20:29

Yikyak,

Closing prices
Closing prices are displayed for the last 5 days on which the security traded on ASX within the last 6 months.

Date Last % Change High Low Vol *
26 Sep 2005 0.200 -6.98% 0.215 0.200 224,576
23 Sep 2005 0.215 16.22% 0.220 0.185 1,497,399
22 Sep 2005 0.185 8.82% 0.185 0.175 565,833
21 Sep 2005 0.170 0% 0.170 0.170 280,000
20 Sep 2005 0.170 3.03% 0.175 0.165 571,310


Want to have a record of weekly volumes, notice rises seem on largish volume, pullbacks on smaller volumes, it looks like we are seeing a base at AU0.20 support forming, and I guess awaiting the next seven drill hole results from ASX:PLA I want to try and calculate ADV to see how liquidity developing pre AIM IPO.

Notice First Set released 25/08/2005 Second Set released 06/09/2005 third set 22/09/2005 so Exploration news updates roughly every 12 to 16 days say once a fortnight.

This reminds me I need to find out latest situation on Kalplats ASX:PLA other project on the Western side of RSA near the Kalahari Desert.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 24/9/2005 19:14

YikYak,

I have two scenarios on the trading of Palladium, one says moves to US$218, US$247, US$294, US$370 the other says move to US$226, US$253, US$296, US$367, both scenarios tend to imply the recent Pd low of US$171 per toz or US$5.50 a gramme, say Panton High Grade Reef US$15.95 per metric tonne Pd at US$2.90 g/t gives likely short term upside to US$11.80 to US$11.90 a gramme to Palladium metal value content per tonne at US$34.22 to US$34.50 per metric tonne.

I think it is realistic because if for example Stillwater Mining Inc AMEX:SWC and therefore Norilsk Nickel MSE:GMKN have 5 Year Rolling Off Take Agreements with major Motor Manufacturers at Floor Prices of US$350 per toz Palladium eg Mitsubishi, Ford, Daimler Chrysler etc, all ASX:PLA have to do is do likewise with Japanese, Chinese or Korean Motor Manufacturers and IMO Panton is a reality, an economically viable Operation.

Bluntly it would be worth Asian or even North American or European Motor Manufacturers sponsoring ASX:PLA at Panton just to have an independent source of guaranteed non MSE:GMKN Palladium and Platinum supply, including even providing low Interest Project Finance and Offtake Agreements.

It is my personal view that ASX:PLA should foster this idea in Asia where the proximity of Panton to Asian Markets would make it a runner IMO.

The bottom Line is I can not believe a combined High Grade 6.10g/t PGE Open Pit and Underground Mining Operation does not work at US$500 per toz PGE Basket, US$100 per Metric Tonne or US$80 Recoverable Metals in Australia backed by a Five Year Rolling Offtake Agreement to supply Asian Markets with say 80,000 toz pa to 100,000 toz pa PGE exported or delivered into the Offtake Agreement.

It might well be attractive for ASX:PLA to forward sell Platinum at US$800 to US$825 per toz to get forward sales of Palladium at US$325 to US$350 per toz

The Other Option is just to supply the Chinese Jewellry Market directly taking some of the likely 2,000% mark up into the equation and sign an Offtake agreement directly there and ride the Asian Palladium Jewellry Boom from a well located near Asian Production source.

Surely an Australian Jeweller could market AusPlats PGMs produced directly from Panton at a significant Premium in the Chinese and other Asian Jewellry Markets?

For example 80,000 toz PGE is just 2,488,280 grammes say at 3.00 grammes per wedding ring 829,427 wedding rings certified as 100% Aussie Platinum Group Metals Content perhaps marketed at US$500 to US$1,000 per item to produce a specialised Jewellry business with US$414,713,500 to US$829,427,000 annual turnover including the sole Aussie Producing mine costs?

Surely if the Chinese Palladium Jewellry market is 600,000 toz pa forecast to double to 1,200,000 toz pa in 2005 the idea makes some sense?

Just an idea.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[yikyak] 23/9/2005 22:39

'I am quite happy being a lone bull this is quite normal for me'

Not quite on your own Ash but I agree at the moment it's very much an ignored metal as PLA has been an ignored stock. Once it starts it's move both metal and stockprice should move pretty quickly.

[mr ashley james] 23/9/2005 17:41

Yikyak,

I stress with only currently 125,062,523 shares currently in issue even at AU$0.22 this share is only valued at AU$27,513,755 or fully diluted including Directors Options 130,861,736 AU$28,789,582 At Exchange Rate per xe.com of AU$2.34767=£1.00 I come to just £11,719,601 (or £12,263,045 fully diluted).

This does not seem alot to me to pay for interests in three PGM Develoment Assets Panton, Smokey Hills and Kalplats and an Exploration Project 24 Rivers to me.

I think still as undervalued as they come personally.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 23/9/2005 14:46

Yikyak,

Zero, if I am correct and Palladium goes to US$232.50 then US$270.25 then US$331.50 then US$430.75 toz short term 2005-2006 on the basis that we know US NDSC Stockpile gone of circa 1.10m toz and they are a buyer, and I believe that the 9.65m Gokhran Stockpile through Swiss Banks cleared 2000 to 2005 hence price drop US$1100 to US$171.





The Demand kickers are IMHO:-

I understand Chinese Jewellry Palladium Demand projected to increase from Est 2004 600,000 toz pa to 2005 1,200,000 toz pa, which means the overall Global Jewellry Industry will need not less than 1,350,000 toz 2005 up from 750,000 toz pa 2004, ie 80% increase in supplies IMO.
Autocatalyst Demand for Palkladium to replace Platinum and Rhodium weightings due pricing.
Autocatalyst Demand now Palladium can be used in Diesel Autocatalysts.

My personal view is Palladium could easily hit US$390 within 12 months 23.60% Fibonacci Retracement, and US$526 within 18-24 months 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement US$635.50 within 24 months to 36 months 50.00% Fibonacci Retracement and just perhaps US$745 within 36 months to 60 months 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement.

Back in 2000 Palladium traded at US$1,100 per toz, I am quite happy being a lone bull this is quite normal for me.

We just need the herd to catch on and then suddenly Panton plus all the other ASX:PLA Projects suddenly become worth a small fortune IMO.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[yikyak] 23/9/2005 14:22

In your opinion how much of the Panton project is in the stockprice at the moment Ash?

[mr ashley james] 23/9/2005 03:25

Mike,

And now hit AU$0.22.

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
PLA 0.200 8.11% 0.195 0.200 0.185 0.220 0.185 592,113

Next target AU$0.23 after that kicks out AU$0.2775 then AU$0.355

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 22/9/2005 18:59

Mike,

Just updated header to include arguably ASX:PLA's most important project at the moment Smokey Hills Platinum Project the good news is we seem to be getting regular exploration updates every 7 drill holes or so and market confidence seems to be growing and growing on news.

My understanding is both UG2 and Merensky Reefs are pretty consistant, and so far grades and depths make for what I can see is going to be a combination open pit and underground mine, and I might add high grade at that.

"Platinum Australia Limited (ASX: PLA) is pleased to announce that the latest results from resource definition drilling for the Feasibility Study on the Smokey Hills Project are consistent with previous results and continue to confirm our target of up to 1 million ounces 4E PGM* in UG2 reef.
The drilling program is now almost 40% complete with 14 holes drilled to date, and a further 30 planned to complete the program by December 2005."

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mikehardman] 22/9/2005 09:04

Many thnx, Ash, for bringing this under my microscope; indeed, looks V. interesting

[mr ashley james] 22/9/2005 08:49

YikYak,

More fabulous drilling results out over night on ASX:PLA Smokey Hills Project:-



Somewhat unsurprisingly up another 8.82% on the news to AU$0.185

Code Last % Chg Bid Offer Open High Low Vol
PLA 0.185 8.82% 0.175 0.185 0.175 0.185 0.175 565,833

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 21/9/2005 02:49

Minews Story
Date: September 21, 2005

The Second Half Of 2005 Looks Like Being A Bonanza For Anglo Pacific

For a company that says as little as possible Anglo Pacific Group, which has a full listing in London, holds a fascination for commentators and investors. Its engine room is coal royalties from two mines in Queensland, Australia. In the six months to end June these increased from £2.39 million to £4.66 million so it is no surprise to find that pre-tax profit for the Group, as well as earnings, just about doubled. The problem of which investors have to be aware is that the royalty interests do not necessarily provide a steady and rising stream of income. The bulk of the royalties arise when the two producers are mining from the Private rather than the Crown areas of the mines, and are paid in arrears.

Last year mining at the Kestrel mine operated by Rio Tinto and the Crinum mine of BHP Billiton took place predominantly in the Queensland Government's area of the coal deposits. The royalties have increased in the first six months due to production moving from Crown Land to the Company's Private Ground and due to higher coking coal prices mainly in the second quarter when the higher prices became effective. However these royalties have been lower than expected due to continuing shipping delays at Australian ports, particularly at Gladstone in Queensland. These are expected to unwind in the second half, so the outlook has to be for more, and better, in the second half of the year which is when the dividend is declared.

The directors are expected to maintain their strategy of paying out between 40 and 60 per cent of net royalties after 30 per cent Australian tax as dividend, but will not make up their minds about the interim until November. Provided the mining remains in the Private Ground, there are no more shipping delays and and sales of coal continue to earn high prices, investors could be in for a treat. Even so the value of these royalties, on a discounted cashflow basis, is virtually unchanged at £57.7 million. This figure compares with the current market capitalisation of the Group which is just over £120 million.

The point that should not be missed is that the higher coking coal price did not have an impact until-mid May and this virtually coincided with the switch by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto to mining on the Private Ground. If just six weeks of these conditions can double income it is anyone's guess just how high profits will be in the second half year. The other point worth considering is what might be the real value of Anglo Pacific's unquoted investments. The only comment from chairman Peter Boycott in the interim report is, "the company has staked further ground in British Columbia at Groundhog and Trefi and detailed evaluation of these projects continues. The Board is still progressing its listing on the TSE despite delays due to changes in their personnel and regulatory hurdles."

This statement gives scant recognition to the fact that Anglo Pacific has a 65 per cent interest in the 665 million tonne Groundhog coal deposit as well as owning the 121.5 million tonne Trefi deposit in the well established Peace River coal field. Both of these are in British Columbia and work is continuing on them encouraged by the much increased activity in that part of Canada during the last six months. Groundhog and Peace River have now become valuable assets which are still carried in the books at negligible cost as all the unquoted investment lumped together are only given a value of £984,000 in the latest balance sheet. Only when the proposed listing materialises will shareholders be able to see what Anglo Pacific has been squirreling away in Canada.

In Australia Anglo Pacific also has an investment in a private company Core Investments with which it is involved in a joint staking and actively exploring for coking coal in several areas of the Northern Territories, Queensland and New South Wales. Coal is at the core of Anglo Pacific and in its quoted investment portfolio, currently valued at £17.5 million, it has maintained its substantial stakes in both Cambrian Mining and Western Canadian Coal. Uranium is coming up fast on the outside as the substantial stakes in Laramide Resources and Aquiline Resources represent further exposure to uranium and gold. Anglo Pacific also has a big investment in Quincy Energy which has numerous uranium projects in North America.

Two more investments are worthy of mention as Anglo Pacific tends to be a loyal shareholder. It has stuck with its 19 per cent interest in Platinum Australia through thick and thin and is now reaping its reward as the company is making considerable progress on various platinum projects in South Africa and will list on AIM shortly. It also recently announced an increase in its holding in AIM listed Hidefield Gold to 18.3 per cent . Hidefield has a number of strategic stakes in gold and diamond projects in North and South America. All these investee companies have an interesting future as do the private coal interests in British Columbia and Australia where Anglo Pacific has a strategy to develop future royalty cashflows from such projects as and when they evolve.

[mr ashley james] 20/9/2005 17:16

Cat,

Ref comment on DAY Thread

Here is the press release extract from LSE:APF where they disclose their 16% interest in ASX:PLA, I understand they topped up in recent placing with another I think 7.50m shares so I think they have around 22.50m shares now ie around 18%

I quote:-

"The Company retains a 16% interest in Platinum Australia where progress has been made on three challenging and substantial platinum projects in South Africa. The process technology associated with the Panton project in Australia remains a valuable asset for Platinum Australia in developing these recently acquired interests."

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 19/9/2005 22:00

Wiganer,

In December 2005 I hear via Hitchens Harrison.

Re Panton:-



Current Exchange Rates per www.xe.com are

AU$1.00=US$0.766979
US$1.30396=US$1.00

I reckon we are probably approaching viability as a combined open pit and underground mine ie probably around IRR 20% currently, I just need another 5% rise in Basket Price and 5% strengthening in US$ and I reckon it will clear my 30% IRR Cut Off, it may already be over it who knows.

I think IRR was 15% at the Pd US$171, Pt US$896 and Au US$415 levels back in May/June/July/August 2005.

80% Recoveries would be in excess of US$108 to US$115 per metric tonne of ore

I quote:-

"The mining rate would be 600,000 tonnes per annum and mine life will be dependent on the metal prices and US$ exchange rate."



I come to around US$64,800,000 to US$69,000,000 (600,000 Mt pa at US$108-US$115 pmt recoverable at 80% Recoveries from Ore of future potential Revenue discounted by the market to zero, I think the market could well be wrong.

It is patently obvious to me that PGE recoveries alone would probably exceeds US$80 per Mt (I come to US$77.27 per Mt Pt, Pd, plus Au ex Rh, Ir, Os, Ru) at Current Commodity Prices and Panton Recovery Process, so that as far as I am concerned Panton works as an underground mine, let alone open pit and underground combined.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[wiganer] 19/9/2005 21:57

Weren't PLA going to list on AIM? What happened to that?

[mr ashley james] 19/9/2005 21:27

Yikyak,

Re Panton, Australia:-



My Read is Top Reef Panton now comes out as follows at today's prices

I calculate at current prices worth:-

PGE:-

Pt US$928/31.1035 x 2.50 grammes per tonne=US$74.59
Pd US$201/31.1035 x 2.90 grammes per tonne=US$18.74
Other PGM Rh, Ir, Os, Ru presumably 0.30g/t (6.10g/t-5.80g/t)need split
Au US$463.70/31.1035 x 0.40 grammes per tonne=US$5.96

Total Precious Metals ex Rh, Ir, Os, Ru to be added US$99.29 per metric tonne of Ore

Base Metals 27 month prices:-

Ni current US$11,025 PMT 27 Months Cash US$13,600 PMT=0.30% Ni=US$33.08 to US$40.80
Cu current US$2,680 PMT 27 Months Cash US$3,724 PMT=0.10% Cu=US$2.68 to US$3.73

Total Base Metals US$35.76 to US$44.53 per Metric Tonne Of Ore

So basically each tonne of Ore contains IMHO in excess of US$135.05 to US$143.82 of in situ metal.

I Personally think this must be economic to mine even at Australian Labour and CAPEX Costs.

I calculate high grade Zone 1,980,806 troy ounces of PGM/Au combined alone plus 30,300 Mt Ni and 10,100 Mt Cu.

Basket PGE Price not less currently than US$532.46 per toz plus Rh, Ir, Os and Ru.

My understanding is around US$508 per toz PGE Basket is Economically Viable ie 2.50g/t/5.80g/t Pt (43.10%) 2.90g/t/5.80g/t Pd (50.00%),0.40g/t/5.80g/t Au (6.90%) I quote:-

"For example, at a palladium price of US$350, platinum price of US$700, gold price of US$350 and exchange rate of US$0.60, a mine life of approximately 10 years is estimated."

If you do the maths you will see Panton per metric tonne beats those numbers now IMO.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 19/9/2005 01:33

Looks like Platinum chart at same point Gold was three days ago ie just pre breakout and Palladium looking very promising as indicators start getting bullish IMO.

Big upside for ASX:PLA if they do IMO









PLATINUM

Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM Buy

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Hold

Short Term Indicators Average: 80% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 940

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy

Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 1026

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 1411

Overall Average: 96% - Buy

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

923.8 915.5 923.3 931.1

PALLADIUM

Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM Hold

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy

Short Term Indicators Average: 60% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 1755

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy

Medium Term Indicators Average: 25% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 1229

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Hold
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Sell

Long Term Indicators Average: - Hold
100-Day Average Volume - 1277

Overall Average: 32% - Buy

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

193.45 185.85 191.80 197.75

GOLD

Composite Indicator
Trend Spotter TM Buy

Short Term Indicators
7 Day Average Directional Indicator Buy
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel Buy
20 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger Bands Buy

Short Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
20-Day Average Volume - 53988

Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
50 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price Buy

Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
50-Day Average Volume - 60647

Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel Index Buy
100 Day Moving Average vs Price Buy
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator Buy

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Buy
100-Day Average Volume - 61533

Overall Average: 100% - Buy

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance

460.3 453.8 459.2 464.6

[mr ashley james] 16/9/2005 18:17

YikYak,



Platinum to US$5.00 or 0.55% to US$923, Palladium up US$7.00 or 3.78% to US$192, Rhodium up US$50 or 2.10% to US$2430, even Gold up US$3.20 or 0.70% to US$457.90

I think with a Basket Smokey Hills PGE Metal Content of roughly US$206.07 per Metric Tonne of Ore at PGE Grade of 8.548g/t composite, averaging roughly US$24.11 per gramme or US$749.82 per troy ounce up roughly 2.273% today ie at a 46.10% higher rate than the Gold Price increase, we should see some fireworks on Sunday Night GMT in Australia.

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[mr ashley james] 15/9/2005 07:15

Yik Yak,

Looks like we tested AU$0.18 last night, and next stops will indeed be test of AU$0.20, then AU$0.23

Nice strong uptrend in the chart developing, all we need now is some excitement on the Platinum and Palladium prices following Rhodium's lead and we are away.

I point out strong Rhodium assays at Smokey Hills very important with Rh powering away at US$2380 per toz.

Current PGE Commodity prices already put us through the US$200 per Metric Tonne contained PGE number

I calculate at current prices worth:-

Pt US$908/31.1035 x 3.892 grammes per tonne=US$113.62
Pd US$181/31.1035 x 3.712 grammes per tonne=US$21.60
Rh US$2380/31.1035 x 0.848 grammes per tonne=US$64.88
Au US$450/31.1035 x 0.096 grammes per tonne=US$1.39

Meaning each Metric Tonne of Rock contains US$201.49 of in situ metal.


All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc

Cheers

Ash:)

[pecker1] 14/9/2005 13:07

Ash,

Palladium seems to be stuck in a rut. Was expecting larger buying from China to click in - perhaps still stockpile overhang?