Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[hvs] 24/7/2014 15:10

How do you explain the collpase from 780 to £ 6.00 ?

[skinny] 24/7/2014 14:19

There were 2 large trades 839 & 840 (89,000 & 4,860,662) which account for most of the volume - so doubt its shorters closing.

[dangersimpson2] 24/7/2014 14:10

I'm not sure this is shorters closing - there's certainly no disclosable shorts that I'm aware of. It was fairly clear that there was an overhang at 650p and that they were probably selling for reasons that were not company specific (e.g. change of fund manager or investment policy) - the reason I deduce this is that the seller didn't adapt their price target to what was clearly good news about the banking facilities. The 4.9m trade reported today is hopefully the last of the overhang - the price reaction suggests it so far but I guess we'll see over the next few days - hopefully back into the 7's.

[hvs] 24/7/2014 13:45

Shorters having to close and more to come.

[chinese investor] 24/7/2014 13:20

I was attracted to the great dividend.

[rcturner2] 24/7/2014 13:19

As I said takes time on these defensives stocks. Sit back and enjoy the returns.

[skinny] 24/7/2014 13:14

And on good volume again.

[chinese investor] 24/7/2014 13:09

At Last !

Chinese Investor (PHNX) 23 Jul'14 - 07:59
Disappointing Start !

[chizgreen68] 24/7/2014 12:29

Are we finally breaking free?

[fenners66] 23/7/2014 21:31

Thanks Jonwig - I guess I'm going to have to change my routine.

[fenners66] 23/7/2014 15:37

Back to the above chart, it looks like someone was in a meeting from 10.30 to 11.30 hence the share price got out of control , however normal service has resumed.

Open free market ?


Yeah right.

[fenners66] 23/7/2014 15:35

Thanks for the links to the news sites guys.
However what I have gotten used to these past few years is opening my monitor(s) looking at the price action and switching to the news tab. The news is then tailored to the monitor so any news related price action is usually easy to discern.

This morning the monitor news page was flooded with links to Alliance news which then invites me to a free trial instead of giving me the item - complete boll ocks I just want it back the way it was yesterday.

So from now I guess they are trying to get me to pay for the news.

[hvs] 23/7/2014 13:07

U have worked it out simples really.

[bluemango] 23/7/2014 12:50

Can anyone clarify the position wrt TDR? At 14/7 they had 11.3m, just over 5%. I understood they had previously signalled they were selling down to 8%. Is it clear that they definitely intend disposing of their entire holding or were they instead just planning to retain a smaller percentage?

If it's the latter then any overhang would not be attributable to them.

[scottishfield] 23/7/2014 11:13

Added this morning

[ursus] 23/7/2014 11:11

The dead hand of the TDR overhang outweighing the good refinancing news?

[scburbs] 23/7/2014 09:25

Jonwig,

Yes, what may appear relatively small over 1 year becomes much more valuable across many years (albeit rates not secured for beyond 2019/2021).

£27m would be 12p per share. If you added that to the dividend and then applied the current ridiculous yield of 8.2% you might estimate that it is worth 146p on the share price.

[rcturner2] 23/7/2014 09:17

It will take time for the news to be digested and acted upon.

This is a pretty boring stock after all.

[jonwig] 23/7/2014 09:16

scburbs - I wonder how the group MCEV will be affected. Put simply, if group cashflows improve thanks to lower interest payments, the MCEV should increase.

If the increase is a (nominal) £27m pa (as per your quote) that should up the MCEV by some £300m - latest was £2380m - ceteris paribus.
But it might be more if they can apply a lower discount rate.

The interims (21 August) won't say.

[keith95] 23/7/2014 08:58

Big buyer & seller at 250 on LII ...

[scburbs] 23/7/2014 08:57

Bizarre response. I certainly wasn't expecting them to refinance the Impala facility that quickly. Their access to the market is impressive, it wasn't that long ago that the only refinancing option was with the existing debt providers.

The 2017-2022 plan had them with £900m of bank/bond debt at 8% (P12). Currently they have £300m to 2021 at 5.75% and £900m to 2019 at c.4%. The surplus cashflow for dividends/degearing is set to be materially higher than projected.

If they are able to average 5% then the surplus projected for dividends/degearing rises from £160m to £187m p.a. or 17% higher.

hxxp://www.thephoenixgroup.com/~/media/Files/P/Phoenix-Group-V2/Attachments/results-presentations/investor-day-presentation-16-05-2013.pdf

[skinny] 23/7/2014 08:47

Or the horse's mouth! -

I actually use a combination of the 2.

[jonwig] 23/7/2014 08:43

Fenners, I think this is the bast site for picking up RNS:



Muted reaction - maybe because it wasn't unexpected?