Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 08/8/2014 08:47

Aleman, a bear market starts once 20% has been shed from the last peak. For the FTSE 100 that was about 7000, so it needs to reach 5600 before a bear market starts and we are miles away from that.

[aleman] 08/8/2014 02:28

Yes, I did. I was being rushed at the end and didn't reread the last bit. I've editted it. Thanks.

Just an afterthought: I could see them working up some excuse for more QE to head off a bear market. With wage growth and inflation (measured by CPI - cough) so low and the £ quite strong, it could already be under discussion. They might follow in the Fed's footsteps and start buying shares as well as goverment bonds. That would fit the bill nicely ahead of an election.

[badtime] 07/8/2014 22:02

Aleman...did u mean a rate increase?

[hvs] 07/8/2014 19:09

Nah u is so so right.

Bring in NO LABOUR asgain, spend spend spend and more immigration.

[aleman] 07/8/2014 18:37

FTSE 250 200-day averages have all turned down now so it looks very much like it could be the start of a bear market. I doubt the UK would have been showing any growth without a booming housing market and high immigration, anyway. (Nearly 400k jobs went to people not born in the UK in the last year according to the last employment numbers. GDP per capita figures are really poor since 2009 ) It's not a healthy way to run an economy although it no doubt helps re-election prospects. What's worse is the government has still only increased taxes rather than cutting spending. (The cuts turned out to be mostly hot air rather than action. Spending figures have yet to stop rising year on year.) Failure to cut properly by the closet socialist in charge mean government is still too big (taxing us to death to fund climate scientists and massively subsidize uneconomic windfarms for instance) so the private sector is still overburdened with taxes and red tape. If the economy slows down when they can't pump housing any more as price rises and low wage growth slow activity, the deficit will stop shrinking. What difference does that make to PHNX? I don't think we will see a rate rise ahead of an election or soon after unless the £ weakens a lot. The possibility of years of low interest rates ahead would see income share yields compress further which would see PHNX rise.

Am I being too pessimistic?

[hvs] 07/8/2014 18:05

Where is the IDIOTS then ?

[sea and sky] 05/8/2014 16:58

RCT: yes these last years have been kind. My av for the last 3 yrs is 24% but usually it is12-15 so as you say anyone could have done as well. In bear markets I tend to switch to spreadbetting to use shorts. Most of my stocks are ftse100 with a few in the 250.

[rcturner2] 05/8/2014 12:46

My gain last year was 30% and this year so far is 11%.

We are 5 years into a bull market.

What is important is how you will fare in a bear market.

Any fool could do well last year, the average fund gain was 25%.

[rcturner2] 05/8/2014 09:48

Warren Buffet's average is 20% per year.

The general average on the FTSE is no more than 6/8% depending which period you select.

I think to achieve a level above 10% you have to take too many risks and then simple statistics tell you that you have a dangerously high chance of a negative return.

[sea and sky] 05/8/2014 08:57

RCT: well I hope to calm my folio down to that when I retire but I need higher gains than that for now so I target a more aggressive 10-15%. I see PHNX is nicely this morning so good luck.

[rcturner2] 05/8/2014 08:44

S&S, I don't want the sort of portfolio that can be hit like that! I currently have 20 stocks in total, about half of which are investment trusts. I am happy with a 5-10% gain annually.

[sea and sky] 04/8/2014 16:36

RCTurner: yours is a fine strategy. I guess we all end up with what works for each of us. I am due away soon for a while so I quite like to go more or less to 80% cash 20% stocks. I have been on the beach before now and come back to find my portfolio in tatters! But PHNX is a good one. Definitely on my list of staples...

[rcturner2] 04/8/2014 16:25

S&S, thanks for the explanation, I didn't quite understand your first post.

I try not to over trade. I like the stock, I see no reason to sell it. I am happy to pick up the dividend and hope for reasonable capital growth over the long term too.

[sea and sky] 04/8/2014 16:21

RTCTurner: yes PHNX - my usual trading rule is that if I make the years div quickly (say 2-4 weeks) I sell and rebuy at a later date. Since I sold earlier it's gone up but I've learned the hard way to take my profits if there are clouds on the horizon market-wise. Good luck to you though, I'll be back in after the ex-div no doubt

[hvs] 04/8/2014 13:56

lol !!!!!

If u still has the MONEY

[rcturner2] 04/8/2014 13:40

Are you sure you have the right stock?

[sea and sky] 04/8/2014 13:28

i'm afraid I baled today. the back test would be fine if the markets weren't a bit iffy at the mo. I had made the div in 4 weeks so can't complain. I will be back in though after div no doubt.

[aleman] 31/7/2014 11:15

It's just back-testing that 696-698p area I mentioned yesterday. Looking promising so far.

[rcturner2] 31/7/2014 11:08

Bought some more today.

[tomkin] 30/7/2014 23:31

"consensus hold" btw

ok stop buying heh heh

[tomkin] 30/7/2014 23:27

nice

(6.34 GBP)