Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[homeboy] 29/6/2024 18:05

petersinthemarket, peterisntinthebloodymarket, who cares, get a life.

[petersinthemarket] 29/6/2024 17:03

I've held PHNX for about 2yrs now and the share price is almost the same as when I bought it. OK, I know there has been a Div, but seriously, where is this company going? I've ditched a fair chunk and I'm tempted to ditch the rest as the cash might be better invested elswhere. Agree with me if you like, or tell me the error of my ways.
pete

[wba1] 28/6/2024 12:39

Just responding to the question about actuarial mortality assumptions. I am not a life actuary and do not have access to Sun Life assumptions but various life companies have taken covid into account and made disparate decisions (from leaving assumptions unchanged to reducing the life expectancy curve). But that is only part of the question because it starts with how reasonable the initial assumptions were. Did they use them to hide profit (the equivalent of stuffing the reserves in GI)? Then there is the issue of acquisition costs. It is common practice to amortise such costs over a reasonable period. Did they do this? How was this dealt with in the original purchase? Have Phoenix continued or amended the practice in writing new business since acquiring SL? And most importantly; how are these issues reflected in accounts and the proposed deal? Is the SL business ring fenced within Phoenix or is it blurred?

The questions for the data room are endless. I do wonder if Phoenix have opened a data room as yet. It would be usual practice where a disposal is expected and there are multiple interested parties. I would hope they will make this clear.

[boonkoh] 28/6/2024 11:41

Share price looks like it might get interesting soon. Poised for either a breakout to 550p, or back into the range and dipping to 500p. Over the next day or two.

[boonkoh] 28/6/2024 11:40

I reckon they should be able to get like 10-12x PBT given the strong brand name and growing over-55 demographic. Not to mention that Saga is in no financial position to flex it's muscles in this over-55 space.So probably looking at anything from £125m to £250m sale price?

[skinny] 28/6/2024 10:03

Yes - the Sun life of Canada -

[devonbeachbum] 28/6/2024 10:03

Thanks Will. Common sense thinking that may be a problem for any sale. Who'd be buying a product when it's not the one they're looking for on the TV? Hmm.

[williamcooper104] 28/6/2024 09:58

Keeping the 2022 Sun and selling the older one It's confusing because of the same/similar names

[devonbeachbum] 28/6/2024 09:08

Confused by the SunLife sale. They're salling Sunlife purchased from AXA in 2016 but are they keeping Sun Life UK purchased only in 2022? Or is it all combined one umbrella now? Be a strange about turn to be selling the SL Uk Ltd already. Anybody able to clear this up?

[devonbeachbum] 28/6/2024 08:34

Nice bit of business covering 6000 RR members: Standard Life completes £880m buy-in with the Rolls-Royce & Bentley Pension Fund
27 June 2024

[iconoclast] 28/6/2024 06:41

So what impact do you suppose Covid might have had on the actuarial assessment of Sun Lifes' particular liabilities?

[lauders] 28/6/2024 02:21

How much did SunLife cost in 2016 and how much is it worth now?


No idea what it is worth now!

[wba1] 27/6/2024 09:04

fenners66; I entirely agree that the valuation they can expect depends on the interested parties being able to extract and interpret information, but that is the entire purpose of due diligence. I was involved in several potential acquisitions, some went ahead and others did not, and in no case were headline numbers of the sort we are talking about considered material. In my case the acquisitions were in general insurance and the most important issue was always the margins held in reserves. In this case actuarial assumptions on mortality would be one of the key questions. Such issues can considerably exceed declared profits in this sector and are totally opaque until extracted in the data room. And if the seller's actuaries or CEO fail to answer the detailed technical questions of the potential buyer - walk away.

[jubberjim] 27/6/2024 05:07

'Early to Bed Early to Rise' 'Maketh a Man Healthy Wealthy Happy and Wise'

I no doubt qualify for the 'Happy' but as to the rest the jury is still out.(As am I)

That news yesterday went down like a lead balloon and seems to have infected every other share in the sector.

Not expecting things to get any better ahead of the elections both here and in Europe so am sticking with my policy of 'Just sitting on the fence' as you all know I have no sense.

Few shares are popping into my sights but as already top heavy here Phnx Lgen and Aviva will just sit this one out

There is just no appetite in the market.

Better safe than sorry

Keep well everyone Looking forward to Glastonbury (hope it as good as last year)

[fenners66] 26/6/2024 23:18

wba1 - I will not argue with you about how a CEO/CFO can arrange a subsidiary's profit as they see shall we say "appropriate" - but that makes the timing of the sale now even more ridiculous given the "profit" they saw as "appropriate" 3 years ago.

If they want a decent valuation it would mean them having to "spill" their inside knowledge of how costs could be ...reduced by someone else's "synergies" and have the counter argument that they "protesteth too much" that there is really more value to be had there.

In other words , no forethought if they have made a rod for their own back.

[netcurtains] 26/6/2024 21:30

How much did SunLife cost in 2016 and how much is it worth now?

[yump] 26/6/2024 20:34

Isn’t there the issue of whether you think the inside information is good and unexpected or bad and unexpected and whether you think it will raise or lower the price.

I certainly have no idea if its good or bad news, except in retrospect after seeing the price jump.

Bit different from being told by an insider that a business is going to unexpectedly kitchen sink a load of extra costs, because the new overseas expansion has gobbled up loads and under-delivered. We know what happens then.

[netcurtains] 26/6/2024 20:27

Gut feeling this might be a fire sale to stop entire company being taken over. Either way should be good for share price 😀

[biddy74] 26/6/2024 20:05

Just catching up and amazed at how many are mixing up their sunlifes. PHNX acquired it in 2016 as part of their £375m purchase of AXA wealth.

[wba1] 26/6/2024 16:10

Never take internal profit splits as accurate. CEO's love to use dodgy internal transfer pricing (of everything from HR to Legal to IT) to present the numbers they want. Only the group total means anything. When I was an underwriter I recall spending 2 years pointing out the blindingly obvious that the retail arm of an insurer was being overcharged by a 7 figure sum in the internal allocation of reinsurance costs, just to make the commercial side look better (It only got corrected when I was accidentally given a copy of a Willis analysis which agreed with me). The Sun Life figures may be accurate, or some may be, or they may just be a fiction of the CEO/CFO manipulations. That is why you have due diligence when looking at taking over subsidiaries.

[rongetsrich] 26/6/2024 16:09

I sold 1/3 two days ago, I may well have to buy them back if they drop a little more.

[fenners66] 26/6/2024 13:27

Post tax profits were .....

2020 £23m
2021 £32m
2022 £13.6m
2023 £15.7m

Should have put it up for sale in 2021 !

[fenners66] 26/6/2024 13:24

On further investigation - it seems Sun Life Ltd was a subsidiary of Phoenix in 2017 ( reading back through the older accounts )

So now its likely it was NOT part of the acquisition 2 years ago from Sun Life Canada - but just shares a common name