Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[scburbs] 08/7/2013 21:36

Bscuit, Yes, it is referring to the staff schemes.

[bscuit] 08/7/2013 18:56

Thanks guys,

I am both a pension policy and share holder.

Newspapers should be required to acknowledge their sources are out historic and would be reduced in value by market movements.

I was talking to an IFA earlier who thought the article would refer to the staff schemes and not pension policy holders.

[aleman] 08/7/2013 11:08

In the last 12 months, the UK stockmarket is up over 10% and the UK 15-year gilt rate up from 2.26% to 3.03%. THat's a double whammy of good news for UK pension funds, meaning 12 month old articles will be well behind the times.

[jonwig] 08/7/2013 08:37

Thanks - so the source talks clearly about "liabilities" and "deficits" which seems to have been blurred in the press article.

But it's dated August 2012 - did the Sunday Times have a desperate need to fill some space in July 2013?
(That seems to be typical: the Telegraph carried news of a cancer research study on its front page last month. It turned out the research paper was dated March 2012.)

[scburbs] 08/7/2013 08:22

On page 7, Phoenix are ranked number 1 on the list of companies whose pension position should most positively effect the share price!

Always remember to take press comment with a pinch of salt without DYOR.

Similarly you should take this research with another pinch of salt!

[scburbs] 08/7/2013 08:16

Here is a report on the FTSE 250 and appears to be the source of The Sunday Times article given it quotes Phoenix and First Group as having 3* liabilities and includes a table.

It also shows Phoenix ranking as 6th in the best funded pensions schemes!

The anomaly is on page 5. All it does is compare the pension liabilities with the market cap. It is not comparing the deficit! It ignores all the assets of the pension scheme! In the case of Phoenix this is ignoring £3.45bn of assets (see page 3)!

hxxp://www.pensionstrategies.co.uk/uploads/pdfs/FTSE%20250%20-%20August%202012.pdf

[jonwig] 08/7/2013 07:37

Bscuit - I haven't seen the article, but what it appears to say (from your post) looks to be against reason!

Anyway, the two staff pension schemes have net actuarial (liabilities) surpluses of (£197m) and £130m, so that can't be the story.

In the latest annual report (p17):

In 2012,
£1.0 billion of vesting annuities were
retained within the Group of which
£0.5 billion related to policies with
guaranteed annuity rates.

Since the MV of PHNX is about £1.4bn, this can't be what they mean either.
("Vesting annuities" will be fully backed by gilt assets anyway.)

Equitable Life did some policies with "guaranteed annuity rates" in the 1970s, when interest rates were enormous (10, 15%?) and this ended up crippling them.
I haven't had time to look into the actual guarantees here, but I'd be amazed if they weren't fully provided for given the EL story.

I'd be interested to learn what reply you get.

[bscuit] 07/7/2013 22:12

In the Sunday Times today--In the FTSE 250there are 13 companies whose total disclosed pension liabilities is greater than their equity market value. The situation is most grave at First Group and Phoenix where liabilities are more than triple the MV.

Worrying especially as PHNX liabilities are presumably for pension policy holders [such as me] as well as staff.

I have sent a query to PPF enquiring what the implications would be for pensioners under their scheme.

[woodcutter] 10/6/2013 15:09

yep i liked the gap up but it hasn't held solid. I think it's just a matter of time for further rise imv. Bollinger bands tightening, MACD seems to be bouncing off zero. Although the TA looks reasonable i bought for the long term, if they deliver to forecast then it's a no brainer on yield and potential share price progression.

My view fwiw is market likely to move sideways for a while so looking to add some good yielders to my growths but will top up my growths on any significant falls. TRS looking like it might come into that realm shortly.

yep i follow DL too.

Woody

[aleman] 10/6/2013 14:50

Hi, Woody. You might be just in time for a step up in the share price if the chart is anything to go by but I don't suppose it really matters if you like dividends and buy for the longer term. This is Digital Look's latest consensus for the fat and rising prospective dividends:

Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield
31-Dec-13 1,987.00 55.45 48.76p 13.6 n/a -78% 53.23p 8.0%
31-Dec-14 2,087.00 69.32 52.70p 12.6 1.6 +8% 56.77p 8.5%

[woodcutter] 10/6/2013 12:51

Aleman....joined you here today, looks undervalued, exceptional yield and strong cash generation. Major share purchases sometime ago by directors offering strong support too. Reduction in gearing and subsequent improvement in eps over time looking like FIF all over again.

Woody

[scburbs] 10/6/2013 10:56

Cinven have done well on IPO of Partnership Assurance (which specialises in annuities for smokers/health risks etc.). The share price is already up from 385p IPO price last week to north of 450p today.

Cinven have made a very large profit. Cinven are behind Guardian Financial Services who purchased the £5bn Phoenix annuities.

"Cinven Partners LLP, a London-based private equity firm, said it will reap seven times its investment in U.K. annuity provider Partnership Assurance Group Plc's initial public offering."

hxxp://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-06-07/cinven-reaps-seven-times-its-investment-in-partnership-assurance

[4spiel] 28/5/2013 15:41

Similar but better than CSN ? Low P/E Worth keeping a few.

[bscuit] 18/5/2013 22:41

Perhaps a chance to get some of my money back. Some of my pension was in Scottish Provident, which is one of the zombie funds. No bonuses delared for more than 10 years. The only bonus is that the non-GAR annuity still comes with a better than Open Market Annuity rate.

I think I will take a few.

[aleman] 17/5/2013 13:27

60.2p dividend in 2014 still gives a 9.2% yield. Still a lot more catching up to do. Nearer £10 to yield a little over 6% would be more in line with the rest of the market.

[scburbs] 17/5/2013 12:12

Good presentation focussing on the management team and the value they have added. PHNX seems a bit behind events given where the market is, would have expected it to be starting with a 7 by now.

[this_is_me] 16/5/2013 21:36

Yes, some hints of another move up being possible.

[jonwig] 16/5/2013 17:35

Presentation slides:



"Opportunities for Growth" described on pp 40-43. They've clearly researched the acquisition market in some depth.

And pp 8, 9 tracks cash generation to "2023 and beyond".

Highly encouraging.

[aleman] 16/5/2013 09:48

Looking lively now!

[jonwig] 16/5/2013 07:15

This is new ... it's only a couple of weeks since the IMS and conference call:

Phoenix Group will today be hosting a presentation for investors and analysts focussing on cash generation, management actions and opportunities for growth.

The presentation will be held at 2pm (BST) at the Museum of London, 150 London Wall, London, EC2Y 5HN.

The presentation slides will be available on the Company's website www.thephoenixgroup.com at the same time as the presentation. A replay and transcript of the event will be available on the website after the event.

The only real "opportunity for growth" is an acquisition: I wonder if they are priming the pumps?

[jonwig] 16/5/2013 06:57

Thanks - I think "I remain a fundamentals investor, who is only occasionally influenced by chart patterns to move buy and sell timing around a bit. The actual buy and sell decision remains based on fundamentals" just about sums up my limit for charting.

I made a study of Alistair Blair's "Guide to Charting" a few years ago and follow his conclusion, that simple patterns are often reliable, whilst more complex constructs are so open to different interpretation that you can get the result you want.

[aleman] 15/5/2013 19:42

I'm not really a chartist. I'm just a quite experienced investor who has noticed that some patterns tend to yield certain results. (Note I don't say it WILL go up but that it will probably go up a fair bit IF it starts to break to the upside rather than down. I'm pointing out that some chart patterns tend to yield magnified moves up or down rather than suggesting which way it will be. A break from a diamond in a downwards direction will likely lead to a significant fall to a certain support rather than just drifting gently down slowly. In my experience, ex-dividends are often part of the trend or pattern formation rather than breaking it, eg rising before the ex-dividend fall and staying within the pattern or trend. On rarer occasions they spike down only to bounce back straight back and create a spike below the trend. Occasionally, the ex-dividend does break an existing trend, but my expereince is that is not the norm. Perhaps you need to ask a keen chartist which I am not. In my experience, fundamentals tend to drive the directions shares break out of the patterns. I remain a fundamentals investor, who is only occasionally influenced by chart patterns to move buy and sell timing around a bit. The actual buy and sell decision remains based on fundamentals.

Just to explain a bit further why a diamond might yield a big move one way or another, here you can see how a diamond could well be just be a small part of a longer trend of channels where their magnitude drives the jump. It also shows why I don't say it will go up or down. I am suggesting a couple of possible targets for either direction, depending on which way the market chooses to push it.

[jonwig] 15/5/2013 12:12

Aleman - how do these chart patterns adjust for dividend dates? In this case, 26.7p, 03/04. It's not a trivial percentage, I'd have thought.

For instance, a share might be moving in a channel and break underneath on xd day.

EDIT: I suppose a "pure chartist" would neither know or care about such fundamental issues as ex-dividend.

[aleman] 15/5/2013 11:54

Looks like diamond has completed and she's away, perhaps.

[aleman] 13/5/2013 10:57

There was a 2/3rd page write up in Shares Mag last Thursday. Interestingly it gives the dividend forecast as 55.8p, then 60.2p. There's not many places left where you can get a forward yield of 9.4%. Given the gains I've seen on other yield stocks this year so that few still yield much more than 5%, I've decided to switch a bit and top up here.