Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[scburbs] 14/11/2012 20:33

zcaprd7, No Direct Line for me, although I had meant to have a look at them. I did have some Aviva, but having got in a couple of times at close to the bottom I have been successfully dipping in and out and not currently holding.

None of them look anywhere near as cheap as PHNX, albeit PHNX also has the highest risk profile due to the debt.

[zcaprd7] 07/11/2012 18:41

"Even RSL starting to move up. I have been adding here steadily. High time they started to reflect the improved market conditions and the excellent progress from the IMS."

Sounds like we are hovering around the same value plays - did you get any direct line?

[robsy2] 07/11/2012 11:10

Good work scburbs.

[scburbs] 06/11/2012 12:29

A few extracts from the conf call indicating that the last quarter has put them in a much stronger position for refi. Also an indication as expected that the banks will be looking to refinance a smaller amount, so part of the £1bn cash horde will go on prepayments (they are not prepaying now in order to build up cash to strengthen their hand in those discussions).

"We continue to have cordial and productive discussions with the Banking Group. There are a number of stakeholders who are necessarily involved in these discussions. We have more financial flexibility, given the quality of the numbers that we announced today, and that is one reason for remaining confident about our ability to achieve a deal which is sensible for all of our stakeholders. I have said before that we will do the right deal rather than the rapid deal. At the moment our capital structure is well served by well priced debt, and therefore I am not capable, or not prepared, to give a timetable. I never have. But I remain very confident that this reterming will take place in the fullness of time, and this is an issue which is at the forefront of our mind."

"Prepayments would serve a role in a broader reterming. And so as you know our mandatories are £150 million a year, and any further prepayments would be part of a broader restructuring of the capital, and the debt structure of the Group, and so there's nothing untoward or sinister. As I said a few minutes ago, we have greater flexibility now because of the performance of the firm in the last quarter, and that gives us, as I said, the confidence about the reterming and any prepayment would be part of a broader reterming exercise."

[scburbs] 06/11/2012 12:13

Even RSL starting to move up. I have been adding here steadily. High time they started to reflect the improved market conditions and the excellent progress from the IMS.

[scburbs] 01/11/2012 08:46

I expect that the Singer Capital Markets bit may be an error and that the "fairly valued" comment and $2.42 price target relates to Phoenix IT (PNX).

[robsy2] 01/11/2012 06:37

thanks jonwig and co,so we all agree it's undervalued it's just the market that doesn't see it....or are we deluding ourselves?
if like philo you have bagged more stock at 500p then you get a sustainable 8% dividend and a strong chance of more . That is not easy to find in this market.Here is the question, Where else can you find that sort of return?
R2

[philo124] 31/10/2012 21:21

Bought another 1000 for SIPP this am.

[jonwig] 31/10/2012 18:30

A (US?) site I've not picked up before:

Phoenix Group Holdings (LON: PHNX)'s stock had its "overweight" rating reiterated by investment analysts at JPMorgan Chase in a note issued to investors on Wednesday. They currently have a $16.45 (1023 GBX) target price on the stock.

Shares of Phoenix Group Holdings opened at 495.40 on Wednesday. Phoenix Group Holdings has a one year low of GBX 405.30 and a one year high of GBX 604.00. The company's market cap is £862.0 million.

Several other analysts have also recently commented on the stock. Analysts at Singer Capital Markets reiterated a "fairly valued" rating on shares of Phoenix Group Holdings in a research note to investors on Wednesday, September 19th. They now have a $2.42 price target on the stock. Separately, analysts at Investec reiterated an "under review" rating on shares of Phoenix Group Holdings in a research note to investors on Monday, September 3rd. Finally, analysts at Berenberg Bank reiterated a "buy" rating on shares of Phoenix Group Holdings in a research note to investors on Friday, August 24th. They now have a $11.03 price target on the stock.



"$2.42" looks a typo. ($12.42?) $11.03 is about 690p.

[jim digriz] 31/10/2012 08:12

Still does all look good - every bit of reduction in borrowing requirements must help the awaited refinancing. They are making a sufficient amount of money and generating a sufficient amount of cash that even if they refinanced at a poor interest rate, they would look cheap. They just need to come up with the refinancing. So, am with those sitting, taking dividend and waiting for refinancing news. Zzzz....

[scburbs] 31/10/2012 07:57

Very strong IMS. Whilst, as Jonwig says, they nearly always meet or are on track for their targets, this is the strongest RNS for sometime.

Life company surplus looking strong again with £180m of holding company cashflow in Q3 and despite that Phoenix Life surplus increased from £566m to £692m (i.e. surplus up £306m in Q3 before holdco distributions).

A lot of the benefit has come from management actions. However, with the management apparently doing a solid job of releasing/generating cash (through the annuity sale, the mergers, the performance of IGNIS etc.) the rating affording by the market continues to look exceptionally harsh (especially as the improving cash position reduces any refinancing risks). Post the October cash distribution, holding company cash should be over £1bn.

[robsy2] 31/10/2012 07:48

Hi Jonwig
Yes business as usualit seems. Ignis is running well and is attracting a lot of inflows.The consolidation of the life funds and migration onto their own system will reduce costs and clean up the whole business. The cash generation is the key, the dividend cost is miniscule for the company,no word on the debt except it is slowly being paid down.They need to reschedule soon , but are in no rush to renegotiate because the deals they have in place are good.
Sit and wait for a revaluation and take the 8% dividend in the meantime?
R2

[jonwig] 31/10/2012 07:24

IMS for Q3 to 30/09.

As usual, all targets achieved.

No mention of debt rescheduling discussions, which is the only thing the markets are bothered about, it seems.

[philo124] 23/10/2012 11:43

Bought this a.m.; Canaccord 600p Target.

[robsy2] 11/10/2012 16:34

Yes it is. I'm in at nearer 600p than 500p but I'm probably about breakeven anyway with the 42p a year dividends I'm getting.Sit tight.

[zcaprd7] 09/10/2012 15:53

Still struggling I see...

[hyden] 13/9/2012 11:24

Certainly looks that way, Aleman. We might be in for a nice surprise.

[aleman] 13/9/2012 11:22

Trying hard to break out?

[jonwig] 12/9/2012 07:24

... number of those over the age of 90 is some 15 per cent lower than expected ...

15% has to be pretty significant in calculating the MCEV, since most of PHNX's policyholders will be getting on in years.

Mind, the market doesn't seem to be sensitive to statements about PHNX's embedded value!

[scburbs] 11/9/2012 22:17

Not a chartist, but presumably PHNX would have broken out to the upside if they hadn't declared a 21p divi!

From a fundamentals perspective PHNX reduced its longevity risk with the recent annuity sale, albeit it seems that the longevity risk is perhaps not as high as expected.

"The rate at which Britons are living into very old age is rising much more slowly than had been forecast only two years ago, a blow for those hoping for a very long life but good news for pension providers and the Treasury which spend hefty sums on the oldest old.

The numbers of those aged 85 to 89 are about 2 per cent lower than had been forecast in 2010 while the number of those over the age of 90 is some 15 per cent lower than expected, according to analysis of 2011 census data published in July."

[bscuit] 02/9/2012 16:53

jonwig---I agree re gilts and indeed zombie funds probably did better in the period 2008-12 than many pure equity funds. I know Equitable where my wife has a pension policy which I decided was not worth moving is in that position. I had £500k with EL and eventually "retired" and went to SL--talk about out of the frying pan into the fire!

Given the yield I am thinking this a good time to go in for an income fund or an ISA.

[jonwig] 01/9/2012 06:53

Bscuit - I've read in more than one place that funds in run-off carry a larger proportion of gilts than open funds - hence lower reversionary bonuses because lower income flow.
The reasoning is that your final returns will be less volatile: more secure.

Whilst I sympathise with your complaint "the impression shareholders have well at my expense", I can assure you that we shareholders have not done particularly well since floatation!

[bscuit] 31/8/2012 21:48

I was drawn to this thread by the "Buy" recommendation in IC. Yield '488p 8.6% definitely attractive for income seekers.

The company owes me about £315K in pension with GAR. My impression in the last few years has been that pension performance has been poor, but presumably that is in part due to no bonuses beung declared. Certainly about 5 years ago the £330K was £270K so the improvement is poor. itis difficult to avoud the impression shareholders have well at my expense.

[jonwig] 31/8/2012 07:00

zcap - the sequence of RNSs on 29/08?
I tried to unravel the chains of holdings but hadn't the will to persevere!
I think the ultimate holder is Xercise2, which is Hugh Osmond's investment vehicle.
You may be right that there's a net increase there ... why make it so hard to figure?

[zcaprd7] 30/8/2012 21:36

Interesting that Sun Capital have added to their position?