Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 09/5/2013 10:49

A diamond pattern usually ends with a big move one way or the other. It's usually a continuation pattern, meaning it carries on what it was doing as it entered the diamond - a strong rise in the case of Phoenix. It's a long time since I've seen one in one of my shares, though.

[garycook] 09/5/2013 10:29

Dumped it to soon zcaprd7

[zcaprd7] 08/5/2013 16:49

Dumped this for a 20 percent gain plus the dividends and cheap shares...

[sirgainalot] 03/5/2013 14:49

Yes true, but they've generated 410/750 (top end)of cash in 3 months/12 months.

They are 56% of the way to the target in a quarter of the targeted time. Now matter how they manage it henceforth, that's brilliant news.

Granted, the cash is lumpy and Q2 will inevitably not be as cash generative as Q1 but the news should be taken as a big positive, not a negative as is reflected in the share price at present.

[jonwig] 03/5/2013 13:19

Sir G - be careful not to extrapolate. They say:

Cash generation tends not to be evenly spread throughout the year as it depends on the level of free surplus within the life companies and the timing of management actions. Cash generation in Q2 is therefore not expected to be at the same level as Q1.

Smashing their targets isn't their style. Scburbs wrote: "... they managed last years cashflow so as to not massively exceed their target". If they look like exceeding it they might just increase surplus in the life funds - worth looking out for.

[sirgainalot] 03/5/2013 12:04

£410m of cash generation in first 3 months of the year.

The full year target is £650-750m.

They've smashed it!! Shares should be up A LOT more!

[scburbs] 03/5/2013 07:36

Always set for a strong Q1 because they managed last years cashflow so as to not massively exceed their target (although to be fair they did upgrade this years target so as to not make it too easy!). This left a strong surplus for an impressive start to Q1.

Nice to see that they have already replenished over 80% of the holding company cash balance utilised to paydown £450m of debt (before the £211m of extra bunce raised from shareholders).

[jonwig] 03/5/2013 07:24

Yes, boring is good, for shareholders here!

I don't think the changes in life company surpluses are significant.

[philo124] 03/5/2013 07:21

Good Statement imo.

[scburbs] 01/5/2013 13:11

Davebowler,

That's a fair point, but the margin over LIBOR isn't high enough for a quasi equity instrument. Phoenix has just taken on senior debt at 4.75% margin (I wouldn't mind holding a share of this debt given its senior ranking and strong margin).

This implies that subordinated debt at 2.73% margin is too low as it should be a large premium to senior debt. I don't think a 15% discount is enough to compensate for the differential in margin and ranking vs the senior debt.

[davebowler] 01/5/2013 11:38

Maybe, but you make the assumption that LIBOR is as low as now in 3 years time.
2.73% over say 1% LIBOR at 85p is 4.39%, and at 3% LIBOR it is 6.74%.Its varable rate nature is quite an attraction then, and not a disadvantage.

The coupon on this class are senior to the ordinary shares dividends - see page 19 of the above document.

[scburbs] 01/5/2013 09:15

Thanks Davebowler, very interesting.

Terrible investment as company can defer coupon, it steps down to 2.73% over 6m LIBOR from 25 April 2016 and the company never has to repay them (I guess the latter point is what it says on the tin).

Perhaps at 50-60 they might have their attractions, but I can't see why they would trade at 80-85 - too high IMV, much better to buy the ords.

[davebowler] 30/4/2013 12:05

Their Perpetual 6.5864% Floating rate bonds are rising nicely ( code 36RW) ;

[sirgainalot] 29/4/2013 12:13

Trading Statement out on Friday.

Last two announcements have seen a 7% rise on each occasion. Strong start to 2013

[scburbs] 19/4/2013 14:16

Good to see Ignis continuing to try to build its stand alone value as a third party asset manager.

"Ignis Asset Management is preparing to launch a £350m fund aimed at institutional investors."



Ballpark value of Ignis is c.£400m. This value (c.£1.8/share) is not in the MCEV per share.

"Ignis Asset Management parent Phoenix Group has rejected a number of takeover approaches to buy the fund management business, according to reports.

...

Those bids reportedly valued the fund management business at £400m."

[scburbs] 12/4/2013 12:28

A Cazenove overview of the insurance sector courtesy of FT Alphaville. PHNX have the highest upside at 40%.

"We reiterate our OW ratings on SL/, AV/, PHNX, and SJP as we believe that these names offer a better combination of growth, cash/capital and valuation. We upgrade RSL to N (from UW) as we see an improving capital position with modest upside. We downgrade LGEN to UW (from N) on valuation and reiterate our UW on PRU as we see increased risk from VAs and valuation looks expensive.

...

Valuation: On average we see 9% upside within UK life insurance, with
Standard Life and SJP offering c. 10-15% potential upside with relatively
low balance sheet risk whereas Aviva and Phoenix offer higher potential
upside at c. 20% and 40% respectively but with higher leverage profiles. We
see c.20% downside at Prudential and c. 10% downside at LGEN. We see
modest upside of 8% at RSL (ex div basis)."

[zcaprd7] 11/4/2013 13:06

Explains that drop off as well...

[zcaprd7] 11/4/2013 13:05

Thanks yupa

[yupawiese2010] 10/4/2013 20:31

Ex - Div 03 April.
Pay 03 May
Amount 26.7p

[zcaprd7] 10/4/2013 08:47

Where are these dividends then? I want the details - pence per share and dates!

[scburbs] 02/4/2013 16:52

Nice to see some more sensible price movements, would be good to break into the £7-8 bracket.

Bizarre that this was available at c. £6 on results day. I should really have bought more than I did (although I already had loads so ...) as it seemed pretty crazy off the back of such a strong set of results.

The dividend yield will continue to be enticing until this has moved substantially higher than the current level. The move into the top 200 UK shares should also help raise its profile among institutional investors.

[zcaprd7] 02/4/2013 16:19

Very strong. Ex dividend this week, no?

[grim] 27/3/2013 10:35

Thanks Jonwig for your thoughts.

[pip_uk] 25/3/2013 14:40

Great company as long as you are not an annuity holder like myself.
Have an annuity with Scottish Mutual which was acquired by Phoenix and my payments have gone down every year since then.