Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 12/2/2021 06:32

A new ticker would be a damn nuisance as it would mean a new thread. One of the most useful features is "Search this thread".

[boonkoh] 11/2/2021 22:57

Risk profile changing at Phoenix with this shift towards running brands and writing new policies.

[williamcooper104] 11/2/2021 22:07

Strange - does imply permanence for PHNX rather than being a run off vehicle Presume we will get a new ticker too

[speedsgh] 11/2/2021 21:57

Standard Life Aberdeen is to change its name after striking a deal with the insurer Phoenix Group, Sky News learns.



Sky News has learnt that SLA's new chief executive, Stephen Bird, is on the brink of agreeing a deal to sell the Standard Life name to Phoenix Group, the life insurer.

A source close to Phoenix said it had been working on the plans under the codename Project Hulkum, and that the transaction could be announced within days.

That transaction would form part of a restructured relationship agreement between SLA and Phoenix that would include extending the terms of an asset management partnership reached in 2018, the source added.

[fenners66] 11/2/2021 15:27

Perfect drug for the seller then...

[bluemango] 11/2/2021 14:30

#4321 Interesting. Those side effects sound a bit unpleasant, and anecdotal evidence would seem to suggest that coming off the drug just makes the appetite (and therefore the weight) return.

[williamcooper104] 11/2/2021 13:09

Should do - 6 percent is still a decent yield

[fenners66] 11/2/2021 10:09

We have spent some time discussing CV impact on shortening life expectancy

now an article on the BBC

"A weekly injection of the drug, semaglutide, was given alongside advice on diet and fitness.

The study, conducted on almost 2,000 people, showed an average 15kg weight loss during the 15-month trial. "

That would if rolled out, lead to lower weight , less diabetes , less heart attacks....

[bluemango] 10/2/2021 10:32

A final comment from me on the previous dividend guidance.

If full year dividend does become 48.2p, that makes the yield at current price an enviable (and sustainable) 6.78% - which should obviously, all other things being equal, put more upwards pressure on the share price

[bluemango] 10/2/2021 09:53

speedsgh9 Mar '20 - 08:11 - 3697 of 4318
0 1 0
Future dividend guidance in today's results...



"The Group's enhanced cashflow profile post the acquisition underpins the Board's proposal to increase the final 2020 dividend per share by 3%."

So final payment in May 2021 will increase to 24.10p. I assume that this increase will apply to both interim & final payments from May 2021 onwards? If so, full yr dividend post increase becomes 48.20p.

FY19 final - 23.40p/share (payable May 20)
FY20 interim - 23.40p/share (payable Sep 20)
FY20 final - 24.10p/share (payable May 21)

[bluemango] 10/2/2021 09:45

Just scanned through the thread and found this:

bluemango - 09 Mar 2020 - 15:08:40 - 3709 of 4318

I have had confirmation that the projected dividend payments are as outlined by speedsgh above, i.e. with the 3% uplift at the time of the 2020 final dividend paid in May 2021 (24.1p) giving an anticipated full 2020 dividend of 47.5p and 48.2p the following year.

[bluemango] 10/2/2021 09:39

Nice to see this looking buoyant again. Final results in less than a month, due 8th March.

I've made a note that Phoenix flagged a final dividend increase for these results, from 23.4p to 24.1p from May 2021 (so to be announced next month), but can't find again the RNS that states this - can anyone point me to this? Thanks

[fenners66] 28/1/2021 11:43

tournesol
28 Jan '21 - 08:51 - 4312 of 4315

"So what I'm asking myself is - have we really had 100,000 "excess deaths"? or have we simply reverted to the mean?"

The "mean" has been changing for decades and arguably hundreds of years.

I read life expectancy used to be in the 30's in the Canary Islands.
Life expectancy in poor countries is still much lower than here.
Diet , technology have moved the goalposts.

Yes we have had excess deaths some of that excess is due to the success of the flu vaccine.

What excess death figure would there have been if we had ignored the risk of covid and done nothing...

[kirkie001] 28/1/2021 09:55

So - attempting to read into mortality changes for year end assumptions.....

People who had updated to the most recent version of CMI tables last year end may be less likely to change mortality assumptions as there's not sufficient evidence yet of a trend?

People who were on older versions may update by a year's worth of tables (which, from memory last year, was generally a net positive for annuity writers)?

Who are the first annuity players to report? I think most are out in the 1st/2nd week of March - but do any of the Life reinsurers report in Feb?

[williamcooper104] 28/1/2021 09:36

Thanks for posting - yes - that's the key thing

[aleman] 28/1/2021 08:59

Looking forward, it is unclear if life expectancy will return to baseline levels rapidly, and even if/when it recovers, how mortality will be different.

So it might have changed and it might not. They don't know until they find out if it has just dragged deaths forward several months, with life expectancy possibly going back to the same as before. It will be while yet before they know if there are any significant changes to the longer term trend.

[tournesol] 28/1/2021 08:51

I was surprised to read a long and detailed article on the BBC website yesterday about the reasons for the UK's apparently "high level" of Covid mortality.

According to the above, 2020 was far from a bad year for mortality, in fact there were 10 years out of the past 30 which were worse! In every year from 1991 to 2000 mortality rates were higher than last year. In 2001 mortality declined and continued to decline more or less until 2020 when Covid arrived.

So what I'm asking myself is - have we really had 100,000 "excess deaths"? or have we simply reverted to the mean?

And if mortality has been unusually low for the past 20 years then doesn't that mean that people who would previously have been expected to die were effectively given a life extension - with the implication that the number of frail and vulnerable people in the population must have increased. Which must surely explain why a disease like Covid has had such an impact.

How does any of this affect Phoenix?

No idea, but thought it was interesting.

[jonwig] 28/1/2021 07:20

WC - as usual they don't say just what study. It's here:



What they seem to be estimating is the usual definition, "life expectancy at birth".
That reduction of 1 year (women 0.9 years, men 1.2 years) won't help much, but what about the LE of a 70 yo? That could well have fallen by say 5 years. Now that would affect Phoenix!

[williamcooper104] 28/1/2021 00:16

Our favourite grim subject - covid and mortality The Times is reporting that there is a study suggesting that total impact of CV19 is to reduce life expectancy by a year

[fenners66] 22/1/2021 16:57

Which is why I looked at the capital release impact of pensioners without assessing them as having big pensions.

Since we know that the majority of covid deaths are very elderly ie already drawing their pensions and would have had annuities bought a long time ago am I therefore right in thinking the release could be as large as I estimated above ?

[jonwig] 22/1/2021 11:50

From the 2019 annual report under 'Risk Management' (p56):

The Group has guaranteed liabilities,
annuities and other policies that
are sensitive to future longevity,
persistency and mortality rates.
For example, if our annuity
policyholders live for longer than
expected, then the Group will need
to pay their benefits for longer.
The amount of additional capital
required to meet additional liabilities
could have a material adverse impact
on the Group’s ability to meet its cash
flow targets.
And vice-versa, surely? A decrease in longvity could have a material positive impact on solvency and cashflow.

Obviously we'll have to see what they say shortly.
As people have pointed out, it's excess deaths in total, including economy weakness and other health conditions. Set against this, there's the weighting against poorer people who are less likely to have annuities.

[this_is_me] 22/1/2021 11:03

You should also note that 'flu' vaccines have been becoming less effective over the last 15 years. There is a theory that this is because the 'flu' virus is becoming adapted to the eggs that it is grown in as part of the production process.

[aleman] 22/1/2021 10:29

I agree with that. There are excess deaths in the pipeline from lack of current treatments. There are also excess deaths in the pipeline from the economic austerity that is to come as a result of the economic and tax effects that restrictions and lockdown cause in future - fewer expensive drugs and kidney dialysis machines, etc. . I actually suspect the future health effects of current restrictions are likely to be bigger than Covid in the end, and have not been given enough weight in recent decision-making, expecially as it will hit younger people more. In summary, we've had a double spike from Covid. I expect there to be a short term reduction over the next year or two (from some deaths of very old brought forward several months) and then I expect a decade or more of modestly higher death rates from a financially weakened NHS. This is hard to determine. It could be from next to nothing to quite significant. (And, to be fair, there might be some slight benefit if higher uptake of vaccinations in future reduce such as flu deaths.)

This study estimated 130k extra premature deaths due to the last recession (which might be a small part of the rising annual death totals trend seen since 2011, mainly due to ageing baby boomer numbers). The current recession looks set to have a bigger financial effect. Then add on excess deaths already being caused by major NHS disruption and patients avoiding hospitals. A figure of 300k premature deaths, some of them younger, seems possible. That is only half a year's deaths, though, over maybe a decade, so likely to affect PHNX but probably not greatly so.

[this_is_me] 22/1/2021 09:57

Aleman there is also the excess deaths in prospect, and already happening, due to the lack of treatment of cancer and also heart disease, diabetes etc.

[edmundshaw] 22/1/2021 09:32

Benefits of excess deaths would be small anyway, barely material in my estimates. I am not planning to make any changes to my investments because of them.