Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 19/6/2020 13:41

Yes it's a worry, and if a scandal comes Phoenix etc. could end up as collateral damage.

[ianood] 19/6/2020 13:04

Jon



Having trawled through the above website I agree entirely with your comments in 4019 & 4021 above. I understand now that this is an attempt by PE to wade in to the market place. Personally, I somewhat doubt the ability of PE to get anywhere near their historic target ROEs from this sector unless there remains a Solvency2 benefit which will surely be addressed by the CMA?

[jonwig] 19/6/2020 09:16

I guess this:

the regulator said the backers of superfunds should not extract any money from the scheme or the capital buffer until members’ benefits are passed on to an insurance company in full.
means that when retirement arrives, the retiree must get proper regulated advice on annuity or cashing in, and the funds required must be handled by the insurance company.

What does surprise me is that TPS had no capital on 31/03/19 and seems to have raised none since. It didn't have to file full accounts.
It is controlled by PSF Benefits Ltd which had capital of MINUS £2.7m at 31/03/19.

The two main UK superfunds seem to be TPF and Clara. This might be interesting:

[ianood] 19/6/2020 08:54

Jon - I appreciate these are little more than guidelines and that regulatory controls have yet to be defined.I was just a little surprised that ultimately it appears that the deals will have to be placed back in to the insurance market or is that only in the case of PE? A long way to go I suspect?

[jonwig] 19/6/2020 07:02

ian - these are interim proposals, during which time the (often PE) owners of superfunds will be on best behaviour.

The most active in the UK appears to be "The Pension Superfund", or THE PENSION SUPERFUND ASSET & LIABILITY MANAGEMENT LIMITED. (Companies House, 10713270.)
At 31 March 2019 this had zero assets. It will be interesting to see how this had changed by 31 March 2020 when the accounts are published, which could be next month.

[ianood] 18/6/2020 22:49

From the FT article -
"The Pensions Regulator said its primary driver for producing the guidance now was concern about consolidation models emerging in the market, particularly those linked to private equity. During the initial period of the guidance, as different models and structures emerge, the regulator said the backers of superfunds should not extract any money from the scheme or the capital buffer until members’ benefits are passed on to an insurance company in full."

So, no change then?

[jonwig] 18/6/2020 16:18

Minerve - thanks for the article, which I missed earlier. It seems to imply that the new 'superfunds' might be able to undercut insurers who are weighed down by Solv II regulations. (Will Solv II exist from next Jan? I guess it will.)

So superfunds are potentially riskier than insurers, but - as often happens with pensions - problems show up over a long timescale. Meanwhile Phoenix and the like run the risk of being outbid by firms who will be less tightly regulated.

The comments on FT articles are often very revealing. Here they suggest that even people closely involved don't much agree on the implications of this move.

[bluemango] 18/6/2020 14:02

Aviva have increased holding to 5.38%.

[minerve 2] 18/6/2020 12:25

Pensions superfunds given go-ahead in ‘tough’ security regime - FT

"About 5,400 defined benefit schemes are in the UK. Although the vast majority no longer accept new members, there are still almost £2tn of liabilities to existing members, according to data from the Pension Protection Fund, the industry lifeboat. "

"The Pensions Regulator said its primary driver for producing the guidance now was concern about consolidation models emerging in the market, particularly those linked to private equity."

[value hound] 15/6/2020 08:18

Well Further to my posts 3885 and 4010, I'm back in at a smidgeon over 616p. I don't see myself as a trader, but I have traded PHNX rather a lot of late. May have to buy more sub 575p, though, if we're lucky enough to get there.

[jonwig] 15/6/2020 07:13

U.K. insurer Liverpool Victoria has attracted interest from rivals including Phoenix Group Holdings and private equity firm Cinven Ltd., according to people familiar with the matter.

More:



If Phoenix raises more equity (I've no idea) there's quite a bit of pressure from investment banks to involve PIs via an allocation through Primary Bid. If it's not a rights issue, that is.

[rcturner2] 11/6/2020 10:47

Phoenix is a very solid business, but that doesn't mean its share price won't be moved around by general moves in the FTSE 100. If we get the perfect storm of bad data that I am expecting from the economy this will be back down below 600p in no time.

[bluemango] 09/6/2020 11:35

Added again. Rather overweight now. Still think these have been overlooked at this price. Time will tell.

Bull factors:
7% yield looking relatively safe.

Legacy life assurance business model not hugely reliant on selling new product or services, unlike many other companies in current uncertain economic environment.

Low price possibly has much to do with confusion over fundamentals (eg focus on PE/eps)

Staff not furloughed, so no moral obligation to suspend dividends.

Chairman's wife recently bought £117k worth around these levels. Director deals aren't always a useful indicator, but nobody, whatever your situation, is going to fork out that kind of cash without being reasonably sure the capital would be secure.

[value hound] 08/6/2020 11:05

Further to my post 3885 above when I said I was "Back in at 559p" on 15 April, I'm out at 695p this morning FWIW.

I told myself I wouldn't sell again and that I'd ignore the share price and sit and take the yield - so that solemn vow lasted < two months :-)

I'm not sure whether to hope CV19 / Brexit gives me yet another bite at the cherry or not. But I'm certainly not finding the value that was all over the place in late March-April.

[skinny] 06/6/2020 18:31

Shauney2 - so should I, but didn't.

Bluemango - me too and it really should have been a no brainer - particularly as we know the fundamentals of PHNX!

[bluemango] 06/6/2020 17:50

#4003. I do very much like pennants.

Especially when they breakout as planned ...

(See #3938 on 19th May - and #3944 for how it looked on 20th May)

[shauney2] 05/6/2020 17:39

Good call Skinny.Should have bought more on the break.

[cassini] 05/6/2020 17:25

Just don't buy any on Monday OK ;0)

[cwa1] 05/6/2020 16:10

For a VERY modest fee I would consider selling another modest parcel to ensure that everyone else's shares continued to rocket up ;-)

[skinny] 05/6/2020 09:25

Update on post 3694 & 3966.

[my retirement fund] 05/6/2020 09:24

Nice price action a bit more of this and then the run on towards £8+ looks like a clear and open road.

[bluemango] 04/6/2020 17:09

Edmund - I guess it depends what level you mean by 'if we head higher' but may I ask what your rationale would be for contemplating that? Were you invested here when it topped 800p earlier this year before the widespread sell-off? If so, isn't this one of the few income earners relatively unaffected by Covid-19 and related economic woes?

I keep banging on about yield, and it's why I sold some AZN and switched the funds here, because I felt the price there had run away from the yield, with the latter unlikely to improve near term. But we're surely nowhere near that point with Phoenix with it around 7%? Genuinely curious to know your views and value your input here.

[edmundshaw] 04/6/2020 15:56

Sold a bit more Aviva and Legal+General from overweight positions. Not really a market timer, so still 80% invested... will look to reduce PHNX only if we head higher.

[garycook] 04/6/2020 10:14

LGEN,& PHNX great core holdings,and paying their dividends !