Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 03/1/2020 11:15

6.5% yield at the current price. Not 6% as IC states.

And post the last deal Phoenix can afford that for over 20 years without new deals, and that is not taking into consideration expected growth from the open business, or gains from the reacent and upcoming bulk annuities business..

Not saying there are no risks, but this is a pretty solid yielder, with reasonable growth prospects for that yield.

[lauders] 03/1/2020 07:40

The "kiss of death" then perhaps! Not always good to receive an IC tip! Let's hope Andy can continue where Sir Clive left off come March.

[jonwig] 03/1/2020 07:37

An IC Tip of the Year:

True, the shares are not without risks. Chief executive Clive Bannister will hand over to former Friends Life group chief Andy Briggs in March, who will inherit a business that must simultaneously integrate two massive deals. Phoenix will also now have three large shareholders that could create selling pressure; in addition to Swiss Re and MS&AD, Standard Life Aberdeen will have 15 per cent of the enlarged share capital following the 2018 deal. Falling interest rates would put pressure on solvency capital. And once the SLA and ReAssure deals bed in, Phoenix will need to find another closed-book target to sustain cash generation. This is an important long-term question, although we think rerating opportunities are more likely in 2020, given Phoenix’s integration track record and the pledge of a minimum 6 per cent yield at the current price. The decision of Swiss Re and MS&AD to sign a 12-month lock-up agreement suggests they agree. Buy.

[santangello] 03/1/2020 05:45

Many thanks Jeff, excellent news for The Company and investors.Can we expect returns to perculate through normal frequency dividends or will a special/special dividends be on the cards?Happy to be long here, with both capital and income increases driving my ongoing addition of PHNX shares to my portfolio.Belated all the best for 2020 Jeff and all holders.

[jeff h] 02/1/2020 10:21

The benefits of this acquisition will accrue to Phoenix now they have bought ReAssure:-

"...The transaction is expected to generate over £500 million of surplus generation including c.£200 million of synergies. Internally funded, it significantly exceeds internal return requirements with a price to adjusted Unrestricted Tier 1 of c.80%(1) and a payback period of 4 years...."

[montyhedge] 29/12/2019 12:40

The only wedge is your underpants rising up, lol.

[skinny] 19/12/2019 11:55

Will the gap stay closed at end of day.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[my retirement fund] 18/12/2019 11:01

If I'm not mistaken there does seem to be a rising wedge forming

[my retirement fund] 18/12/2019 10:58

Thanks. Must admit its again tempting to take profits again tho!

[skinny] 18/12/2019 10:33

New 18 month highs @759.50p - nicely churned MRF.

These are now my biggest holding by value.

[panshanger1] 12/12/2019 08:40

Nicely done MRFSolid long term hold for me

[robsy2] 10/12/2019 14:43

Why not? I bought my last lot at 660p.

[my retirement fund] 10/12/2019 12:48

I've started buying back. Gently does it.

[poikka] 09/12/2019 20:21

Maybe Swiss Re and MS&AD have been lightening their holdings.

[skinny] 09/12/2019 09:44

Deutsche Bank Hold 734.18 760.00 Reiterates

and from Friday :-

JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 734.18 846.00 904.00 Reiterates

Shore Capital Under Review 734.18 Under Review

Peel Hunt Reduce 734.18 605.00 Reiterates

[edmundshaw] 09/12/2019 09:18

Maybe Phoenix could have got a better price. But the deal still looks positive, surprised the price is dropping at the moment...

[skinny] 08/12/2019 10:44

So there are happy managed pensions stories....

[my retirement fund] 08/12/2019 09:33

Of course they were once Windsor life and in the 00s bought among others National Mutual Life assets of GE. I had a small pension with them valued at 14K with an attached annuity agreement of 14% PA. National gave me a token £500 for loss of my membership. GE then went on to challenge its Annuity agreements but conceded defeat and sold to Windsor (Now SwissRe). Throughout that time it was always valued at abou 14K and was only increasing at about £30 a year despite paying in 420 per year. Then post SwissRe 2008 I called them up and it was suddenly worth £26000 an uplift of around 70% !!!

[my retirement fund] 06/12/2019 14:05

I'll be back no doubt just suspect at a lower price. Meanwhile its in the interest of RE to push its stake up by pushing Phoenix down and taking away the full 17% stake

[alter ego] 06/12/2019 14:01

I merely assumed he thought it was chicken feed.

[tournesol] 06/12/2019 13:01

My Retirement Fund

..3% increase in dividend sounds poultry to me

So you think it's just turkeys voting for Christmas?

The pheasants don't know any better?

It's the hen-d of the world?

Or are you just being chicken?

I'm going before you tell me to duck off.

T

[jonwig] 06/12/2019 12:59

MRF - sorry, I think you spoil your argument by implying base motives. The deal needed board approval, and the Phoenix board doesn't strike me as supine. It's also a part of the long-term strategy of progressive sector consolidation.

Minerve - that's right, and I personally aren't competent to do the sums you talk about When Phoenix says

"The total consideration payable of £3.2 billion represents 91% of ReAssure's pro-forma Solvency II Own Funds of £3.5 billion(8) as at 30 September 2019 before cost and capital synergies."

I'm inclined to take that in good faith.

Obviously, the market seems to have shifted its view of this, so we'll have to wait for some informed comment. Here's some from the FT, which maybe suggest that the price paid is a bit rich:

Kamran Hossain, analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said the deal was a “highly positive outcome” for Swiss Re that could give the company the firepower to increase the size of its share buybacks.
...
According to Paul De’Ath, an analyst at Shore Capital, the price Phoenix is paying for ReAssure is 91 per cent of own funds, which is a measure of shareholder capital. That, said Mr De’Ath, is slightly above the price the company has paid for its other acquisitions.

[minerve 2] 06/12/2019 12:36

The only way you can determine whether this is a good deal requires calculation of intrinsic value in both companies.

[my retirement fund] 06/12/2019 12:15

Theres logic. Re were hoping for upto 3.3bn on their ipo. Obviously proved impossible with given all the brexit economic and political outlook where you need decent foreign investors to push such valuations up. So Clive has done it a 3.2bn. As for a massive bonus. Jeez how naive can you get! Do people seriously think he's done it to be charitable? He's retiring and any opportunity to set his family and future family up for generations would be the driving force.Am I being to simplistic? Are there any videos out there setting out the rationale and valuations a little clearer?

[spooky] 06/12/2019 10:03

I'm amazed you would sell following the deal. If you held before it doesn't make any sense IMO.