Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[pj fozzie] 29/11/2019 20:36

Hi Tournesol,

I'm sure a quick discussion will be fine (Jonwig - do say if not!)

I have a portfolio of 53 shares. My top ten holdings represent (today) 62% of the overall value.

My biggest holdings currently are (with % of holding in portfolio):

14.89% Vanguard Worldwide Income Index ETF (VHYL)
14.74% Vanguard UK Equity Income Index Fund (VVUKEI)
7.06% Phoenix Holdings (PHNX)
6.06% Henderson Far East IT (HFEL)
5.45% Merchants UK Income IT (MRCH)
4.97% BMO MSCI UK Income Leaders IT (ZILK)
3.01% Murray International IT (MYI)
2.06% Royal London Stirling Bond Income Fund (RLSEB)
2.00% HSBC (HSBA)
1.81% Legal & General High Bond Income Fund (LGHII)

The combined yield of those 10 holdings is just a smidgen over 5%

Excess income right now is adding to MRCH and VHYL

My exposure to Phoenix is actually slightly larger than 7.06% becuase some of the Funds and Investment Trusts I hold are also going to be holding it. I'm OK with that.

The rest of the portfolio is primarily made up of dividend paying FTSE 350 companys - with one or two smaller 'fun' investments - i.e. Sossander (SOS)

Happy to answer any questions,
Cheers,
PJ

[tournesol] 29/11/2019 14:27

Hi PJF

I'd be interested to hear what else you have in your portfolio. You show me yours and I'll show you mine kind of thing. Is there somewhere on ADVFN for portfolio discussion as opposed to discussion of individual stocks?

T

[pj fozzie] 29/11/2019 11:45

Tournesol, I completely agree. I have been building up my holding of Phoenix since 2012 and it's done very well for me. I am now retired, my 'pension' is my dividend income and PHNX is a core holding in the portfolio - in fact, my largest single company holding by a fair margin. All my other core holdings are funds or investment trusts. I hope the new guy can direct the company as well as Clive Bannister has.

Cheers,
PJ

[tournesol] 29/11/2019 11:15

I don't pretend to do rigourous analysis of the details here. Truth be told I don't pretend to even understand the details here.

What I do see is a rather boring business which takes on on some of the boring, mundane, operational work that is outside the growth areas of the insurance industry. It industrialises the processes and achieves economies of scale. It is completely unexciting and low growth. It is never going to shoot the lights out. Ultimately the closed books will be completely run down and the underlying business activity will grind to a halt.

However, the desire of closed book holders to unload makes for low acquisition costs and the economies of scale make for low operating costs. And the longevity of the underlying policies means there are decades of cashflow ahead before the end of the road is reached. Each new portfolio that is taken on leads to additional economies of scale so margins are getting better over time.

And the yield is over 6%.

I'm thinking of this as being akin to an endowment that will pay 6% for decades (certainly longer than I'll be here to collect it) but that has residual value and can be sold easily at any time.

For me that makes it a pretty attractive proposition. And price volatility makes that even more attractive because it is possible to trade around a core position to increase overall returns.

What's not to like?

My instinct tells me that it will eventually get back to the 800p level but meanwhile it's an easy stock to hold and forget about.

[jonwig] 29/11/2019 08:20

Barclays was an outlier some years ago, saying 'sell'. I don't know what these longer-term targets are, perhaps I should keep up.

Anyway, IC says 'BUY' today.

[speedsgh] 29/11/2019 08:00

Bah humbug...

Phoenix longer-term targets need revision, says Peel Hunt -

Insurer Phoenix (PHNX) is generating short term cash but Peel Hunt says it is yet to feed into longer-term targets.

Analyst Andreas van Embden retained his ‘reduce’ recommendation and target price of 605p on the shares, which rose 1.5% to 744.4p yesterday.

He said short-term cash generation was ‘better than expected’ but ‘so far there is no change in the company’s longer-term cash targets or an increase in economic synergies from the recent deals, with the Standard Life deal synergies on track to deliver £1.2 billion’.

Van Embden added that cash remittances this year were expected ‘to come in slightly above the top end of the £600 million to £700 million target range’ this year.

[masurenguy] 28/11/2019 15:39

tournesol - well Christmas is certainly coming but I can't open my stock advent calendar yet to see what nice surprises might be in store here ! :o)

[tournesol] 28/11/2019 15:32

Masurenguy

Excellent update - this could put the share price back over 750p before Christmas.

Is it me or is Christmas getting earlier and earlier?

:~)

[skinny] 28/11/2019 15:19

Before the days end at this rate!

[masurenguy] 28/11/2019 08:01

Excellent update - this could put the shareprice back over 750p before Christmas.

[this_is_me] 28/11/2019 07:32

Excellent results. That should take the share price out of the doldrums. It is the nature of the company's business that that the results from one period to the next can be a bit up and down.

[skinny] 28/11/2019 07:03

.

Phoenix Group announces a strong trading update, exceeding 2019 cash generation target ahead of Capital Markets Day

Phoenix Group, Europe's largest life and pensions consolidator1, is today hosting a Capital Markets Day for investors and analysts, which will include presentations by Phoenix's management team.

The purpose of the event is to provide greater insight into how Phoenix manages its in-force business for Cash and Resilience. In addition, management will outline the range of options for Growth across its Open and Heritage businesses to bring increasing sustainability to long-term cash generation.

Alongside this, Phoenix today announces a strong trading update with 2019 cash generation ahead of target.

Trading update

· £707 million of cash generation2 in 2019 (2018: £664 million), exceeding the upper end of the 2019 cash generation target range of £600 million - £700 million3.

· Solvency II surplus of £3.0 billion4 as at 30 September 2019, unchanged from 30 June 20195 and Shareholder Capital Coverage Ratio of 156% as at 30 September 20196 (160% as at 30 June 2019).

· £440 million of incremental long-term cash generation from new business comprising:

- £205 million in the 9 months ended 30 September 2019 of new Open business (9 months ended 2018 pro forma7: £220 million).

- £235 million from £1.1 billion of Bulk Purchase Annuity liabilities contracted year to date (FY 2018: £250 million incremental long-term cash generation from £0.8 billion contracted liabilities).

· £1.1 billion of illiquid assets sourced year to date with an average credit rating of A+, delivering a £116 million Solvency II benefit. This takes the allocation of illiquid assets backing annuity liabilities to 25%.

· Phoenix Group last week confirmed an enlarged partnership with leading technology and service provider Tata Consultancy Services to support delivery of its Hybrid Customer Services and IT operating model, the final phase of its transition programme.

· Phoenix remains on track to deliver the £1.2 billion total synergy target for the Standard Life Assurance businesses transition which is progressing to plan.

· Phoenix continues to meet or exceed all customer service metrics.

Commenting on the results, Group CEO, Clive Bannister said:

"This trading update further reinforces Phoenix's conviction in its business model and its capacity to generate Cash, deliver Resilience and exploit multiple avenues of Growth to deliver long-term sustainable cash generation, not just today but in the years ahead. We continue to place customers at the heart of what we do and are committed to delivering a high level of customer service and to improving customer outcomes.

I look forward to meeting with investors and analysts at our Capital Markets Day where we will provide a more detailed insight into our business".

[my retirement fund] 26/11/2019 21:28

I've been doing that for 8 years now!

[bothdavis] 26/11/2019 21:24

Why unwind your position?

Enjoy the dividends, reinvest, watch your pot grow!

[my retirement fund] 26/11/2019 19:54

If this breaks £8 I'll be a little hacked off to be honest as I'll probably be forced to unwind my position and then there will be nothing a good out there to reinveste the money into!

[aleman] 26/11/2019 17:17

I refer to post 3533. The low end of the range did not hold above 718p that day but it has done today - backtesting 718p twice in fact - so I'd guess at some progress for a few days.I don't think it will rocket though - I'd guess at 745p and a pause. Still, any progress is welcome after looking undervalued for 18 months. (This is all a bit of fun for me. I'm really a fundamentals investor but I find these little chart pattern breakouts interesting.)


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[my retirement fund] 26/11/2019 16:53

Good volume

[lauders] 20/11/2019 05:05

Two important bits of PHNX news:

12th Nov 2019: Phoenix Group announces strategic partnership with TCS to drive growth plans in workplace pension market


18th Nov 2019: Phoenix completes £144 million buy-in with Aegon UK Staff Retirement and Death Benefit Scheme


This news that relates to the first one can't be bad either!

19th Nov 2019: Standard Life Assurance, part of Phoenix Group, gains further recognition for customer service excellence at the CCA Excellence Awards 2019

[aleman] 19/11/2019 10:21

Shares can spike for all sorts of reasons. (Fat finger?) It's the reaction/recovery from the spike that matters. Do investors react and quickly push the spike back into it's trend or not? So don't measure the top of the daily range. Measure the bottom. Staying above 718p today would constitute a break of horizontal resistance and signal a likely move up in days ahead.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[skinny] 19/11/2019 10:01

Post 3512 still the current status.

[my retirement fund] 19/11/2019 09:57

Certainly looking for a long term trend break upwards. Has it got the momentum this time?

[speedsgh] 12/11/2019 15:23

Phoenix outsources Standard Life pension admin -

[ianood] 09/11/2019 16:04

zang - agree, he's done an excellent job and stepping out at the top of his game. Also, it looks like Mr Andy Briggs is a more than safe pair of hands too.

[zangdook] 09/11/2019 13:03

A 60-year old giving four months notice of retirement isn't really departing out of the blue.

[richardbroughton] 09/11/2019 09:28

Always a concern when high profile , successful long serving Chairman and CEO's depart out of the blue. Probably no worries here but you never know, seen too many departures that preceded bad news down the road! They are the people really in the know!