Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 06/12/2019 09:53

"just be some obscene golden bonus". Cynical a little?

[my retirement fund] 06/12/2019 09:51

...and at least the last deal gave investors a choice. I'd be happier to know Clive was sticking around but I suspect this will just be some obscene golden bonus for him before he leaves. As such ive decided to cash in but will watch closely from the sidelines for weakness. After all next dividend won't be due till spring.

[masurenguy] 06/12/2019 08:40

A really positive initial market reaction and the pre-Xmas 750p target has been hit ! :o)

[this_is_me] 06/12/2019 07:52

It looks like a great deal at first glance. I don't see a mention of the interest rate on the debt part of the finance cost.

[fenners66] 06/12/2019 07:20

Yes, No support from existing shareholders reqd.
+3% to the dividend
Clive going out with a bang

[jonwig] 06/12/2019 07:18

I seem to remember that this one was rumoured a few years ago, but fell through. A good element is that Swiss Re are willing to take shares in PHNX and there's no outside fundraising.

[robsy2] 06/12/2019 07:06

Wow!
This deal should keep the divis flowing for a good while.

[skinny] 02/12/2019 08:54

Happy Christmas Masurenguy!

[tournesol] 30/11/2019 23:29

PJ

Thanks, much appreciated.
Too busy to provide a substantive response right now. (I have a small wine business and I'm working 7 days a week doing Christmas deliveries.). Will respond when I get a few hours off.

Regards

T

[jonwig] 30/11/2019 16:32

pj f - no objection at all (thanks for asking)!

There don't seem to be any threads which are used for the kind of sharing you're doing. Some do exist but then get swamped by echo-chamber argument!

[pj fozzie] 29/11/2019 20:36

Hi Tournesol,

I'm sure a quick discussion will be fine (Jonwig - do say if not!)

I have a portfolio of 53 shares. My top ten holdings represent (today) 62% of the overall value.

My biggest holdings currently are (with % of holding in portfolio):

14.89% Vanguard Worldwide Income Index ETF (VHYL)
14.74% Vanguard UK Equity Income Index Fund (VVUKEI)
7.06% Phoenix Holdings (PHNX)
6.06% Henderson Far East IT (HFEL)
5.45% Merchants UK Income IT (MRCH)
4.97% BMO MSCI UK Income Leaders IT (ZILK)
3.01% Murray International IT (MYI)
2.06% Royal London Stirling Bond Income Fund (RLSEB)
2.00% HSBC (HSBA)
1.81% Legal & General High Bond Income Fund (LGHII)

The combined yield of those 10 holdings is just a smidgen over 5%

Excess income right now is adding to MRCH and VHYL

My exposure to Phoenix is actually slightly larger than 7.06% becuase some of the Funds and Investment Trusts I hold are also going to be holding it. I'm OK with that.

The rest of the portfolio is primarily made up of dividend paying FTSE 350 companys - with one or two smaller 'fun' investments - i.e. Sossander (SOS)

Happy to answer any questions,
Cheers,
PJ

[tournesol] 29/11/2019 14:27

Hi PJF

I'd be interested to hear what else you have in your portfolio. You show me yours and I'll show you mine kind of thing. Is there somewhere on ADVFN for portfolio discussion as opposed to discussion of individual stocks?

T

[pj fozzie] 29/11/2019 11:45

Tournesol, I completely agree. I have been building up my holding of Phoenix since 2012 and it's done very well for me. I am now retired, my 'pension' is my dividend income and PHNX is a core holding in the portfolio - in fact, my largest single company holding by a fair margin. All my other core holdings are funds or investment trusts. I hope the new guy can direct the company as well as Clive Bannister has.

Cheers,
PJ

[tournesol] 29/11/2019 11:15

I don't pretend to do rigourous analysis of the details here. Truth be told I don't pretend to even understand the details here.

What I do see is a rather boring business which takes on on some of the boring, mundane, operational work that is outside the growth areas of the insurance industry. It industrialises the processes and achieves economies of scale. It is completely unexciting and low growth. It is never going to shoot the lights out. Ultimately the closed books will be completely run down and the underlying business activity will grind to a halt.

However, the desire of closed book holders to unload makes for low acquisition costs and the economies of scale make for low operating costs. And the longevity of the underlying policies means there are decades of cashflow ahead before the end of the road is reached. Each new portfolio that is taken on leads to additional economies of scale so margins are getting better over time.

And the yield is over 6%.

I'm thinking of this as being akin to an endowment that will pay 6% for decades (certainly longer than I'll be here to collect it) but that has residual value and can be sold easily at any time.

For me that makes it a pretty attractive proposition. And price volatility makes that even more attractive because it is possible to trade around a core position to increase overall returns.

What's not to like?

My instinct tells me that it will eventually get back to the 800p level but meanwhile it's an easy stock to hold and forget about.

[jonwig] 29/11/2019 08:20

Barclays was an outlier some years ago, saying 'sell'. I don't know what these longer-term targets are, perhaps I should keep up.

Anyway, IC says 'BUY' today.

[speedsgh] 29/11/2019 08:00

Bah humbug...

Phoenix longer-term targets need revision, says Peel Hunt -

Insurer Phoenix (PHNX) is generating short term cash but Peel Hunt says it is yet to feed into longer-term targets.

Analyst Andreas van Embden retained his ‘reduce’ recommendation and target price of 605p on the shares, which rose 1.5% to 744.4p yesterday.

He said short-term cash generation was ‘better than expected’ but ‘so far there is no change in the company’s longer-term cash targets or an increase in economic synergies from the recent deals, with the Standard Life deal synergies on track to deliver £1.2 billion’.

Van Embden added that cash remittances this year were expected ‘to come in slightly above the top end of the £600 million to £700 million target range’ this year.

[masurenguy] 28/11/2019 15:39

tournesol - well Christmas is certainly coming but I can't open my stock advent calendar yet to see what nice surprises might be in store here ! :o)

[tournesol] 28/11/2019 15:32

Masurenguy

Excellent update - this could put the share price back over 750p before Christmas.

Is it me or is Christmas getting earlier and earlier?

:~)

[skinny] 28/11/2019 15:19

Before the days end at this rate!

[masurenguy] 28/11/2019 08:01

Excellent update - this could put the shareprice back over 750p before Christmas.

[this_is_me] 28/11/2019 07:32

Excellent results. That should take the share price out of the doldrums. It is the nature of the company's business that that the results from one period to the next can be a bit up and down.