Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[adejuk] 12/10/2017 15:13

i sold my 25 k at an average of 429 this am.
i'm in a risk off phase and am now 70% cash - that's safe isn't it :-)
my pf is up 12% this year. not bad and quite happy to let the 30% run
some gambles - jlp, hemo, xtr
but then legal and general - 100k, imm 50k, iqe 100k

[paa65] 12/10/2017 15:04

WJ - I'm just observing what has happened in the last 5 months.I think oil price and optimism was much better in 2012.

[paa65] 12/10/2017 15:02

5% - no contract is exactly the fear the shorters are exploiting.In the five months since the SFO announcement, there has only been a little over $2Bn in RNS contract announcements. So we are already $500m behind. A new contract is required soon just to keep the company going - rather than something that will blow away the shorters.There have been other small contracts and extensions but but they must be small to not require an RNS.If there are no more contracts this year then the end of year results will be grim with respect to the order book.

[w1ndjammer] 12/10/2017 15:00

paa re post 10010

i don`t think it works like that for example, i am sure you will agree
that 2012 was a good year share price wise average 1500p but contract wins totaled less
than $1.5 billion you forgot the service work and royalties etc etc 2011 was similar

WJ.

looking for 400p to load up

[fuji99] 12/10/2017 14:45

Paa65 - Interesting and plausible remark. Cheers.

[cinquepercento] 12/10/2017 14:38

Paa65:

I like your post above,Paa65.

The only fly in the ointment is if Petrofac does not get another contract.

[paa65] 12/10/2017 14:20

And DB have just reduced their holding by 1.3%

[adejuk] 12/10/2017 14:02

i fear the absence of contract news is further encouragement for the shorters - and why not?

[paa65] 12/10/2017 13:54

Why PFC's natural share price trend is down.I've posted similar to this before - about a month ago.PFC revenue is about $6.6Bn per year.So it 'consumes' it's order book at  a rate of $1.1Bn every two months.So to keep its order book steady (and hence its future revenue and profit steady) it needs new contracts of about $1Bn every two months.It got that with the Samsung JV - and the share price rose 40p.It also got it with the two contract RNS's in early September and the share price rose 40p.But each billion dollars only covers 8 weeks - so, on average, the share price drops back by 40p over 8 weeks - or about 5p per week.Of course, the share price oscillates around that falling trend line based on other factors including oil price and world economy prospects, and market manipulation.I'm now waiting for the next contract to test my theory out by selling some of my holding after the rise and buying back much lower.

[chelsea81] 12/10/2017 12:28

Anyone who knows this stock will know by now that this share price goes up and down like a yo-yo, but I'm still dismayed with the volume of moaning on here when the share price drops every so often. This share price has been oscillating between 370-490 for months, everyone invested should know this by now. No need to clog up this board with persistent negative moaning when the share price drops. I hardly see any technical discussions these days, just moaning from the same people when the share price drops a penny.

[notimpressed] 12/10/2017 12:27

maybe mr griffiths is driving the price down to acquire
more cheap stock.

[woodhawk] 12/10/2017 10:27

This is well oversold now. Due a bounce - I don't expect the share price to be so conveniently low when divis are paid next week. Maybe best to reinvest sooner rather than later?

[fuji99] 12/10/2017 10:18

Not surprised if they start "talking" about the fine etc.

[fuji99] 12/10/2017 10:17

I am afraid this is drifting slowly but surely to 400p mark.

[notimpressed] 12/10/2017 09:33

buy buy buy

[paa65] 12/10/2017 09:30

Big boys picking up stop losses right now.Stealing their shares

[adejuk] 12/10/2017 09:23

they're boring us to death

[cinquepercento] 12/10/2017 09:20

Thank you Igw,

427.66 from my broker now.

Shorter's next target 425 and then?

[1gw] 12/10/2017 09:08

Cinquepercento: In my opinion it means either that AQR have a lot of conviction about their PFC short position, relative to their other short positions, or that like their Wood Group / AMEC position, their position is actually hedged against some other long position that I am not aware of so that they are not taking as much individual company risk as it seems.

[cinquepercento] 12/10/2017 08:54

1gw :re: Petrofax % shorted?

What does that mean in layman's terms, 1gw?

It seems to me that the shorters have tried for the last four days to push this down below 430 and I don't think that they have given up on the idea yet.

I would love to buy some of this at 430 but I don't feel lucky on this,especially as it is Friday 13th tomorrow.

[1gw] 11/10/2017 20:32

Disclosed shorts.

Confirmation of a dramatic drop in the Wood Group short position in the latest FCA spreadsheet as all the Wood Group / AMEC arbitrage positions net out post-completion. AQR has the largest of the 3 remaining short positions with a 1.1% residual position.

So the Petrofac position is now by far AQR's largest (as a % of shorted company) on the FCA spreadsheet, with its 2.99% Capita position the next highest after the 4.79% PFC position.