Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[sunshine today] 19/10/2023 06:58

All the house builders can hold out for the short term.

But house prices falls , followed by flat prices, is something they can not contend with.

Basically your company started bleeding last year and could do so for another decade.

[sunshine today] 19/10/2023 06:56

Having purchased 3 builders / developers at previous lows over the last 35 years I know exactly how the market plays out.

The key here is debt that is out of control personal, government, and business.

It’s worldwide.

All of that needs to blow off that can take decades.

You require sound foundations for the next boom.

[kop202] 19/10/2023 06:48

Shouldn't you change your username? ..... How aboutApocalypse tomorrow?

[sunshine today] 19/10/2023 06:40

Umm, so what could be the catalyst for yet higher prices !

U.K. productivity falling even more.

Interest rates returning to the average over the last 50 years of 6.7%

The world debt bomb going sour, leading to the refusal to lend.

Student debt crippling the FTB

Personal tax take to hit a hundred year high, up from todays 50 year high.

Millions of unsold homes

[investorwil] 18/10/2023 22:12

PSN are already down 70 percent since their peak and the previous house builders recovery was staggering! Time will tell but persimmon are a very strong company and will benefit in the long run.

[popit] 18/10/2023 16:58

investorwil

“I believe PSN could be 5000+ in 5 years time”

It is more likely to be £5 or £4 or £3

The last housing crash saw house builders fall by over 95%

[sunshine today] 18/10/2023 15:52

Household size has fallen 70% in the last 120 years.


That’s due to wealth and more importantly the availability of debt.

//////

The upshot being if those two factors reversed over half U.K. homes would be empty. !!!


Please don’t tell me that will never happen , when it has throughout history for long periods

[sikhthetech] 18/10/2023 15:51

Cupra Kid

Undersupply is what a property expert said was a reason the property prices won't crash before GFC.

Dec 2006:
Savills says housing market is not about to crash..
Prices high due to inadequate supply rather than a bubble.

Sound familiar..;-)

The rest is history, so to speak.... so lack of supply wouldn't stop a housing market crash..
watch the supply increase and the demand decrease...

"The housing market is not about to crash, according to the latest Savills UK Residential Research Bulletin. Low growth in 2005 seems to have constituted the full extent of the housing market slowdown, with house price inflation excelling in 2006."

"Price levels are high and large, growing numbers of households are unable to buy their homes but this is due to inadequate supply rather than a speculative bubble,’ said Ms Barnes."

[investorwil] 18/10/2023 15:48

INVESTORWIL
investorwil18 Oct '23 - 14:43 - 4703 of 4706

Yep, just started to accumulate PSN. I think it will drop a little further but happy with my first purchase.

You think it will drop further so you bought now?

No one knows where the bottom is going to be, me included, that's why I have started to buy now and not go all in. I could be wrong and it could rise quickly on some good news but at least I have a few now. I'm hoping it drops to around 900 which would be an excellent long term trade as I believe PSN could be 5000+ in 5 years time.

[cupra kid] 18/10/2023 15:48

Sikh, the same applies to your quote. They'll always be people that cannot afford homes and they'll always be people that can comfortably afford homes....in whatever market.

[sikhthetech] 18/10/2023 15:26

Cupra Kid,

"Still a national housing shortage, fact."

FACTS. There was a national housing shortage before the GFC. It didn't stop house prices crashing, HB share price crashing, did it?

If homebuyers can't afford to buy then it doesn't matter whether there's a shortage or not.

[pander45] 18/10/2023 15:16

Yawn. Can you give me a precise figure on cycle bottom oracle. Thanks.

[cupra kid] 18/10/2023 14:50

Here come all the experts on a red day. Still a national housing shortage, fact.

[sunshine today] 18/10/2023 14:41

You buy house builders at the bottom of the cycle , ( not the top ).

[bc4] 18/10/2023 14:39

INVESTORWIL
investorwil18 Oct '23 - 14:43 - 4703 of 4706

Yep, just started to accumulate PSN. I think it will drop a little further but happy with my first purchase.

You think it will drop further so you bought now?

[sikhthetech] 18/10/2023 13:58

They will fall to a new low for the current cycle. There's a way to go before that low is reached.

[investorwil] 18/10/2023 13:55

Yes. I'll hopefully have 4 more purchases by Christmas and sit on the shares for a while. That's the plan anyway!

[stevensupertrader] 18/10/2023 13:49

So you are just ignoring my d ice to wait just a day ! . My chart shows that it will drop to under £9.80 today or by tomorrow . Anyway if you are averaging Ie buying a few times, your strategy is correct otherwise if you just buy once , you must well give the difference to charity .

[investorwil] 18/10/2023 13:43

Yep, just started to accumulate PSN. I think it will drop a little further but happy with my first purchase.

[stevensupertrader] 18/10/2023 13:32

Now PSN share price is under £10. @ 9.94

[stevensupertrader] 18/10/2023 13:11

Blue59 - I can be certain that share price will fall below £10 later on or tomorrow . Anyone thinking to buy now , you can get my her cheaper . If you don’t believe me - just wait not more than 48 hours

[beckers2008] 18/10/2023 13:04

ONS data published today...

Average UK house prices increased by 0.2% in the 12 months to August 2023 (provisional estimate), down from 0.7% (revised estimate) in July 2023.

The average UK house price was £291,000 in August 2023, which was little changed from 12 months ago, but £9,000 above the recent low point in March 2023.

Average house prices over the 12 months to August 2023 remained little changed in England to £310,000 (0.0%), decreased in Wales to £217,000 (negative 0.1%) and increased in Scotland to £194,000 (1.1%).

Sikhthetech/sT,

Tell me... When is this 40% peak to trough house price crash coming, lol!

Sikhthetech/sT you are a classic mug-punter, lol, just lol!

[sikhthetech] 18/10/2023 11:59

Help to Buy was closed to new customers a year ago.

The fuller impact of closing the H2B scheme is now showing up in HBs updates.

There you go, Help to Buy ending impacting HBs. Affordability still severely impacting housing market.


From BDEV update:

Trading Update:
"In the period our net private reservations(2) per average week were 169 (FY23: 188) and net private reservations per active outlet per average week were 0.46 (FY23: 0.55). During the period sales to the private rental sector and registered providers of social housing contributed 0.04 (FY23: 0.04) to the reservation rate. (Appendix 1).

Reservation activity has continued to reflect the mortgage challenges faced by potential homebuyers, as well as the absence of Help to Buy reservation activity which accounted for 12% of private reservations in the prior year period. We have continued to focus on driving revenue through multi-unit sales to the private rental and affordable housing sectors and the continued use of sales incentives for private customers.

Reflecting the slower reservation rate, our total forward sales (including JVs) as at 8 October 2023 totalled 9,221 homes (9 October 2022: 13,314 homes) at a value of GBP2,362.0m (9 October 2022: GBP3,603.1m). (Appendices 2 and 3)."




sikhthetech1 Mar '23 - 11:52 - 4097 of 4698 Edit
<...>
The end of Help to Buy will have an big impact, especially as they had 20% of their reservations using the scheme.

[blue59] 18/10/2023 10:57

The ramblings of a desperate shorter.

[stevensupertrader] 18/10/2023 10:23

£10. not £19