Persimmon Share Discussion Threads

[cupra kid] 19/7/2023 13:42

Not the greatest of comparisons hey!

[sikhthetech] 19/7/2023 12:17

From WJG this morning. A BTR builder

From WJG update:

"In the period since the interim results, market conditions have become more challenging. In particular, the recent increases in interest rates and prevailing economic uncertainty have impacted negatively on market liquidity. As a result, there is now a greater degree of risk over these transactions completing by the year end."




Watkin Jones shares plummet as deals delay, costs rise and CEO steps down


Watkin Jones PLC (AIM:WJG) shares plummeted around 35% lower in Wednesday’s early deal as the UK residential rental property firm issued a profit warning and said its chief executive Richard Simpson has stepped down with immediate effect.

Multiple previously announced property deals are now in question as a result of higher interest rates and prevailing economic uncertainty, with the company warning of “a greater degree of risk” to transactions completing by the year’s end.

[blue59] 19/7/2023 07:09

y'75 - Too late, couldn't wait! Anyhow I've got him filtered from way back.

[onehanded] 19/7/2023 07:06

Now looks like a recovery stock as inflation starts to fall and only 1 more small interest rise likely now, expect a lot of investors to be interested. £14 will be the first test point. Expect with shorters closing and switching, could see a steady climb.

[beckers2008] 18/7/2023 21:43

y1975,

Apart from the brexit basket case, the village idiot 'Sikhthetech' has been quite here, lol!
It's still trying to put the fire out with it's bucket full of holes over on it's beloved pos TLY, lol, just lol!

[yossarian1975] 18/7/2023 15:36

@blue, wait until porch pops up with an ultra negative comment about house builders, the UK and brexit, and how PSN has no value and is definitely going to £5. Tends to be a good time to buy

[pinemartin9] 18/7/2023 14:15

I doubled my holding at 990p to bring my average down. Risky play not liked by some, but has done me well on other shares. This pays a nice dividend and 990p seemed very low. It went lower, but that day there was so much pessimism around it felt a good day to buy some value. Good luck all. Cyclical this one so I might not post for a while, happy to sit and wait. Plenty of other bargains out there to research at the moment.

I've got 18 shares on my watchlist and could probably take positions in 3 or 4 in line with current PF cash position and my allocation rules. No major hurry though as markets are in the doldrums and it's summer. Need to do another sift of the watchlist but not too closely.

[blue59] 18/7/2023 13:31

I'm waiting for someone to write that "this will never get to 1500 in a million years" before piling back in!

[cupra kid] 18/7/2023 12:50

I personally filled my boots under 1000p. I will sell some for short term profit and let the others ride for when the main stability returns.

[mwainw1973] 18/7/2023 11:15

My last buy here was 1300 under 1000 seemed a gift

[essentialinvestor] 18/7/2023 11:03

Nice bounce from recent lows, congrats to anyone brave enough to buy - particularly
so when below the October 2022 Truss market plunge. Who dares...etc

[kanwar] 18/7/2023 10:43

Skilled workers visa relaxation?

[beckers2008] 14/7/2023 14:58

'Sikhthetech'

I've been telling you for months that the majority of landlords sold up from the first wiff of the changes to the EPC rating legislation a few years ago.
50,000 landlords sold up to year end 2022,
These properties were largely 'D to F' rated.
Landlords are now buying back properties with a 'C' rating to comply with rental legislation to be passed.
FTB's do not have a hope in hell of buying a second hand 'C' rated home as landlords are snapping them up.
Massive supply/demand imbalance driving prices ever higher. Expect that to continue.

Try to keep up, Mug-punter, how's your beloved TLY doing, your about 70% down, lol, just lol!

[jugears] 14/7/2023 14:19

Sikh, not everyone over borrows, not every one has a mortgage, not everyone has a credit card, not everyone is in debt to the hilt, you make a lot of assumptions, so what if 1 million people are coming off fixed rate mortgages, these might be people that are coming to the end of their mortgage or people with the odd 10-20k left to pay off, I think you assume that everyone borrows 95% plus & that is not the case, people save money, are left money or just given money, you over think Imo sikh & I learnt a long time ago it doesn't pay to over think. My view here is that worse case scenario is that sales & profits, dividends will fall short term on the other hand the uk will be so short of houses that when the markets improve sales & house prices will go through the roof as will the dividends,If the share price falls I will just add more shares for the future, I do think the press a far more pessimistic than things really are, as you know I have supplied the housing industry for nearly 50 years & its been a long time since I have had buyers emailing me at 6 in the morning & 10 at night which has started to happen in the last few weeks,even weekends! & not seen that since before covid.

[sikhthetech] 14/7/2023 11:39

Beckers,
"In June, 241,000 homes were available in the private rented sector, compared with 370,000 in June 2019 — a fall of over one-third (35 per cent)"

As expected then... b2l investors selling up
;-)



sikhthetech - 26 Oct 2022 - 19:51:56 - 3690 of 4505
encarter,

"the only reason they would crash would be mass unemployment."

No they wouldn't. Supply of credit is crucial to the housing market. Affordability is crucial to the housing market.

Homebuyers can be in work but with surging mortgage interest, energy prices, food prices, tax rises, those mortgage to the hilt can be in severe mortgage debt/repossession status...

There's also increases in interest rates on credit cards/loans.

Plus the millions of 2nd homes. If investors can't afford payments on 2nd homes or it's unviable and better to invest elsewhere, ie high rate accounts then why invest in a b2l yielding just 6-7% with all the hassle.

Supply increases, demand falls.

[beckers2008] 14/7/2023 10:11

Extract froom today's FT.

As expected, rents becoming as expensive as buying your own home, why wouldn't buyers want an energy efficient EPC rated 'A' soon to be 'A+' New build home over an old fuel guzzling second hander.

"The number of UK homes available to rent has dropped to a 14-year low, piling more pressure on tenants competing to find an affordable place to live, new analysis has found. 

In June, 241,000 homes were available in the private rented sector, compared with 370,000 in June 2019 — a fall of over one-third (35 per cent), according to consultancy TwentyCi"

[sikhthetech] 13/7/2023 14:07

32% drop in reservations.
More than 50% of the drop due to 49% slump in FTBs as a result of Help to Buy ending...

Demand falling, HBs hit by H2B ending, as predicted.


Barratt hit by plunging demand for new homes
Shares in UK’s biggest housebuilder drop after 32% fall in net reservations


"Barratt Developments said demand for new homes dropped by almost a third in the past year, sending shares in the UK’s biggest housebuilder down 5 per cent as the homebuying slowdown added to pressure on the property sector.

Net reservations for new homes dropped 32 per cent in the year to June 30, the group said. Barratt reported a “significant deterioration” in demand and said reservations had slowed in recent months, when mortgage rates soared following successive interest rate rises by the Bank of England."

"More than half the decline was the result of a 49 per cent fall in demand from first-time buyers as they face higher borrowing costs and the winding down of the government’s Help to Buy scheme."




sikhthetech - 27 Jan 2023 - 11:57:53 - 12353 of 14699
ST,

Good find, re end of Help to Buy.

Backs up my assertion that it will have a negative impact on HBs.
20% of PSN private sales were completed using H2B scheme.

Apart from homebuyers falling into negative equity, the scheme's interest rate after the initial interest free period follows CPI and everyone knows that's around 10%. Why would the govn do a U turn on such a toxic scheme?

The scheme ended to new applications at end of October, so it's no longer available.

Obviously HBs are currently busy trying to complete the homes.

[sikhthetech] 13/7/2023 11:25

Barratt TU today.


Sales fallen since May.

As expected, H2B ending will result in significant fall in reservations. Barratt say 49% fall. Demand has fallen
Their avg selling price £320k


From their TU:

"Our net private reservation rate for FY23 was 0.55 (FY22: 0.81) per active outlet per week, down 32.1%. This includes a contribution of 0.10 (FY22: 0.03) from increased reservations into the private rental sector ('PRS'), principally to Citra Living, and additional reservations of private units to registered providers of social housing ('RPs').

As outlined previously, we experienced a significant deterioration in demand during the second quarter and, whilst the position improved during the third quarter, reservations then slowed more than normal seasonal trends from mid-May to the end of June 2023."

"Following the end of Help to Buy and increases in mortgage interest rates, first time buyer reservations in the year reduced by 49% compared to FY22, and accounted for more than half the decline in our total reservation rate. Demand amongst existing homeowners was more resilient."

"We have delivered a total average selling price ('ASP') for the year of c. GBP320k (FY22: GBP300.2k)"

[beckers2008] 12/7/2023 19:32

GLG Partners LP have reduced their short further as announced on 11th July.
Could we have hit the bottom?

[ariane] 12/7/2023 04:56

Can it trend up to 1086p