Pershing Square Share Discussion Threads

[arja] 17/12/2020 14:22

ricky,
i did mean that although my thought that there would be a NO DEAL looks likely to be WRONG and sterling still in short term uptrend ! hard to be sure what Johnson thinks is best for him politically and he must have calculated it is to get a deal . he would not give a hoot about the economy or loss of jobs if the result helped him to stay as Tory leader and PM for longer .
So tomorrow is the key day and might end this consolidation period for PSH .

[bmel] 10/12/2020 13:44

ricky - cheers I should read all the words in the posting cheers

[rickyl1] 10/12/2020 12:46

I think it's meant as sterling to dollar exchange rate dropping on no deal which would benefit PSH, the opposite is also possible if sterling strengthens.

[bmel] 10/12/2020 10:03

arja this from the LSE site

All changes from this review will be implemented at the close of business on Friday, 18 December 2020 and take effect from the start of trading on Monday, 21 December 2020.

Not sure about a Brexit impact as the stocks in PSH are very largely USA domestic oriented businesses eg retail, hotels and eateries etc so unclear impact apart from a short term market blip on the announcement.

[arja] 10/12/2020 09:20

bmei,
so it is now in the FTSE 100 if IC is correct . that might account for the selloff on profit taking after the big moves higher recently . Worth watching closely I guess and with NO DEAL brexit now likely cable is falling and could go much lower .

[bmel] 09/12/2020 16:01

Hi - This from today's Investors Chronicle



Pershing Square Holdings (PSH) made its way onto the FTSE 100 index of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) earlier this week, complementing its existing listing on Euronext Amsterdam. The move would have been welcomed by officials in London, but some may feel a slight unease at the prospect of an activist investor at the helm of a FTSE benchmark constituent.

Pershing Square is a holding company structured as a closed-ended fund. It was launched in 2012 under the patronage of the eponymous Capital Management entity, the creation of hedge fund manager Bill Ackman, who also co-founded the investment house Gotham Partners.

In a sense, Mr Ackman and his business partner at Gotham, David Berkowitz, were trailblazers in the hedge fund world, in that they openly shared the reasons why they had taken certain portfolio positions, long or otherwise, at a time when 'talking your book' was looked upon with a little more suspicion than it is today.

The activist activities at Gotham helped to raise Mr Ackman’s public profile, although contrary to the axiom, not all publicity is good publicity. Gotham eventually came unstuck after its diversified portfolio gave way to one largely comprised of thinly traded public companies and some private entities. Readers of this magazine, at least those familiar with the Woodford Equity Income fund saga, will be aware of the danger posed by the concentration of illiquid investments within a given portfolio, particularly when investors start asking for their money back.

Strangely enough, by 1997 the hedge fund had become one of America’s leading golf course operators. Unfortunately, the investment turned sour when the underlying property values started to contract. Gotham examined the prospect of refinancing via a debt-for-equity swap, while Messrs Ackman and Berkowitz took the decision to publish favourable research in support of large positions they had accumulated in certain companies, the intention of which is still open to question. The move eventually attracted the attention of Eliot Spitzer, the then New York State attorney general, but the writing was already on the wall for Gotham as the redemption notices flooded in.

It is difficult to gauge what lessons Bill Ackman may have learnt from the Gotham affair. Certainly, the Pershing Square portfolio is conservative by comparison to the Gotham mix. It is comprised of just 10 stocks, mostly predictable – and readily apprehensible – businesses that have defendable positions within their respective markets, the likes of Restaurant Brands International (TSE:QSR) and Hilton Worldwide Holdings (US:HLT). Somewhat ironically, the hedge fund exited its position in Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (US:BRK.B) in May to seek out higher returns elsewhere.

Presumably, the hedge fund manager envisages profitable opportunities through M&A once the full financial impact of the pandemic becomes apparent. Earlier this year, Pershing Square Tontine Holdings (US:PSTH) listed on the New York Stock Exchange. It acts as Ackman’s Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC), an entity formed to raise finance for a specific purpose, most often the acquisition of a third-party company. The investment vehicle went public despite having no real operating business.

We do not know if Mr Ackman’s recourse to these 'blank cheque' companies or 'cash shells' will have any impact on admissions in the UK, even if we witness a surge in distressed assets over the coming months. SPACs have accounted for around 40 per cent of initial public offerings in the US this year and the Financial Times recently reported that the LSE was exploring ways to attract SPACs to the UK market, in hopes of spurring a similar surge in admissions this side of the pond. It is worth noting that the Pershing debut in London came a few days after Marwyn Value Investors (MVI) launched three new acquisition companies on the LSE.

Pershing Square closed out its first day of trading as a benchmark constituent at a 25 per cent discount to its November net asset value. Aggregate net growth stood at 62.8 per cent in the year to date, while the dollar value of the portfolio reflects a 92 per cent large-cap allocation. Impressive enough, although rather staid compared with some of the fund manager’s early forays into the market, even though he still had the nerve and insight to garner around $2.6bn for Pershing earlier this year by utilising defensive hedge bets as the outbreak threatened a severe economic recession.

[riskvsreward] 09/12/2020 13:06

They report NAV every Thursday so it will be tomorrow. Also report monthly NAV on the first work day of the month.

[bmel] 09/12/2020 12:24

Hi Rach

we don't actuall join until 19th of the month.

not sure about the NAV rules in Ftse 100, but SMT do it daily

[rachael777] 09/12/2020 10:35

no NAV rns this am ? thought it came out regular as clockwork every week or does the move to ft100 mean this is now defunct ?

[arja] 09/12/2020 10:03

yes bmei as I feel like I am up against a computer when I trade . With this stock I edged in with a spreadbet and will add if it keeps trending up but , unlike you , I have financing charges and on full value even though there is much higher margin since the big change meaning I am paying interest on my own money !( smile ) . I notice the strong pound today after Gove comments has knocked PCT and possibly PSH too .
Good luck

[bmel] 09/12/2020 09:15

arja I agree with your thoughts on algos here. It suggests a period of volatility while they fight it out. Also fair to say that PSH has regularly had chunky, but relatively short, drops all the way up since March. I am just going to sit it out - been here for over 12 months now.

[arja] 09/12/2020 07:41

not sure what you mean as volume for yesterday was only about 200,000 shares and it is a low volume stock as traded infrequently during the day . but this algorythmic trading is so confusing and drives me mad (smile ) .hoping it will bounce today and US indices up again to all time high I think

[rickyl1] 08/12/2020 18:24

Strange drop that, 1m sold and 3m bought according to lse.

[arja] 08/12/2020 14:36

was only out for 2 hours and quite a surprise to see PSH fall so quickly . Hopefully it was just a big seller wanting to exit !

[arja] 08/12/2020 10:57

thanks Bmei and maybe a chance it will creep up towards the 19th unless the funds have
almost got their weighting already . I have Level 2 and DMA and do not follow your reference to buys and sells and how to know with automatic trades as they match presumably . maybe you mean the RSP trades as can then see which is a buy and which is a sell ? thanks again and now down 5p but market is not bullish today so far

[bmel] 08/12/2020 10:03

Arja

Not actually in FTSE 100 till 19th of the month.

I guess none of the funds and trackers want to overpay for their shares. Just looked on LSE and £324k buys versus £60k sells by 09.45- and nil movement on price.

I am patient and expect the discount to come down some more.

[arja] 08/12/2020 09:30

seems to be struggling at this level in last few days and maybe it is a case of " buy the rumour and sell the fact " as now in FTSE 100 . Hope I am wrong as still that massive discount to NAV .

[arja] 07/12/2020 13:15

thanks for posting link vacendak. PSH up a bit today but , with weaker pound , I hoped it might do a bit better .

[vacendak] 06/12/2020 14:49

Some comments on the share structure, the wide discount and the original slow start in 2014.

[arja] 04/12/2020 07:26

spreadbet , thanks again and I hope you are right as it did not perform yesterday even though the US indices moved higher

[arja] 04/12/2020 07:25

bmei,
thanks for comments and , as I normally trade stocks with CFds , the algorithmic systems drive me mad at times as I feel that I am competing with a computer and my bid between the spread in some stocks triggers immediate movement with an algo bid at same level or higher . With this stock, IG do not allow CFD purchases and I am forced to use a spre

[bmel] 03/12/2020 21:41

arja

every technical and algorithmic 'trick in the book' will now be being played by the big funds to get their position in PSH at the best price they can. A 'battle' of competing computer systems is (has been) underway. Just sit back and wait for the results. They will see a good improvement in the price. I am not sure by how much but I don't think we will be looking at a 25 % discount in the near future.

[arja] 03/12/2020 12:09

maybe that was one reason why it went up so rapidly but not in last 2 days as
the fund buying has now dried up - hope not !

[rambutan2] 02/12/2020 20:55

Yes, joins on 19th. Been a fantastic investment over last couple of years.

[ceaserxzy] 02/12/2020 20:39

psh has now officially entered ftse 100.