Paypoint Share Discussion Threads

[gabsterx] 28/5/2020 08:04

Nice results this morning, happy I held on and added more in April.

[simba_] 13/5/2020 21:55

I sold out completely this morning. Wasn't willing to let the profits from this one slip. Would reconsider buying again at £4-5 range.

[trident5] 13/5/2020 15:38

Not all trades are reported though.

[porsche1945] 13/5/2020 15:17

No volumes are small, something else

[trident5] 13/5/2020 15:09

More sellers than buyers.

[porsche1945] 13/5/2020 14:55

Why have these tanked today?

[simba_] 11/5/2020 15:35

Sold half into this strength today. Not sure theres much upside from here. I'll keep a close eye on the remaining..Not a bad day for holders, though.

[simba_] 10/5/2020 12:08

Apologies. Gabster. Not checked in here since. I dont remember now specifically but I had modelled the forecasted drop in revenues then returning to growth for FY22 and beyond. Used 8% rate and I think 2-3% terminal rate. .I plan on selling down at least half my position when market opens. Upside to my IV is failry limited now. I'll keep some on the table incase I'm wrong..PAY will of course gap down 10% on the open now.

[gabsterx] 16/4/2020 11:03

Simba, always happy to share analysis ideas! What metrics did you use for your DCF?

I used the below:

Next 5 years FCF: 36M (last 5 year average was 43M)
Next 5 years FCF growth: 0%
Long term FCF growth rate 1%
Discount rate: 8%

I get a fair value of 745p.

Taking FY 2020 at 26M FCF (40% decrease) then FY 2021 at 23M, returning to normal afterwards gives me 726p.

[simba_] 15/4/2020 23:35

Interesting, Gabster. I'm getting similar implied share price with DCF. But when checked back against turnover, it seems off. .Typical FCF margin implies turnover would have to compound at over 4% to get us there, which just hasn't happened. Highly profitable business but just doesn't look like it can grow the top line. .Im seeing 2020 turnover forecasted to fall around by 40%. Then again by 8% for 2021.

[farnesbarnes] 15/4/2020 14:20

Looking to pick some up circa 500p

[gabsterx] 15/4/2020 12:43

Added a few more shares today. Low debt, strong margins, very high ROE and ROCE. Even a pessimistic DCF puts a fair price of 750p on the shares implying a 30% discount to fair value.

[mr.oz] 07/4/2020 08:28

Long way to go

[gabsterx] 16/3/2020 13:21

-17% today.. I would have thought that the parcels business would benefit from all the in-line deliveries, although one can argue that the market is far from rational at this point.

[togglebrush] 16/3/2020 08:00

EPOS systems have grown since introduction in the 1980's from being an intelligent till to being the core business computer... handling the worldwide credit and debit cards, calculating wages, stocktaking and ordering stock, plus. Company supplies these to small businesses making the essential efficient business connections in addition to other services. EPOS systems are now the key of small retail, catering, and hospitality businesses.

[rik shaw] 16/3/2020 07:46

That statement would apply to any share on the market.....

[mr.oz] 15/3/2020 20:38

Divi could be under pressure if revenue hit over coming months

[jadeticl3] 15/3/2020 17:53

I had a Smart Meter installed, then my supplier failed and my new supplier cannot use the Smart Meter, so it may not be the threat that smoothtosmooth thinks!!

[jonwig] 15/3/2020 17:47

@ smooth - how much of their bottom line depends on prepay utilities?

And in any event, there's a great deal of resistance to adopting smart meters: I'm bombarded regularly with emails which falsely tell me I've agreed according to T&Cs to having one installed. I've ignored them.

I have to say that, agreeing with Gabster, it's a very sound company. Of course the share price could be +/- 10% from one day to the next.

[gabsterx] 15/3/2020 17:35

No debt, 40%+ EBITDA margins, PE ratio of 10.. I'm piling in to this while it's at these ridiculously low levels!

[walrus1] 15/3/2020 15:02

Not necessarily. They are transforming into a data company. They have relationships with tens of thousands of retailers and have put till systems in for them, retaining the ability to collate all the till data. Think what the manufacturers, suppliers and government agencies would pay to see who is buying what and where.

[smoothtosmooth] 15/3/2020 10:58

Paypoint is dying business model once everyone is using smart meters.

[mr.oz] 13/3/2020 16:28

Presumably hammered due to people's impending lock downs
Surprised me a bit

[mercer95] 10/3/2020 09:49

Through the Paypoint terminals you can.