Paypoint Share Discussion Threads

[stoopid] 02/1/2025 13:42

Hopefully heading back up over 800 here as post Christmas results loom. Should see meaningful contributions from Love2Shop and Park Chriatmas savings.....Will be close to 100m EBITDA this year i reckon and a trading announcement is due at end of Jan and Feb with final results in June.

[masurenguy] 11/12/2024 16:06

Paypoint

PayPoint shares have more than doubled in the past 18 months, touching their highest for nearly five years and stopping just shy of 850p. Since the middle of last month the chart has failed three times to break 850p, often a signal a share is heading downwards, and on Tuesday slipped below 800p. At the least, stale shareholders are exiting. But that may create buying opportunities.

This Spanish-controlled business has several moving parts. It mainly offers payment systems for retailers and government departments such as hospitals and universities, particularly for the unbanked. Its fortunes are therefore strongly linked to consumer and public spending, both of which are expected to be on the up in the next few years. The bill-paying and cash machine operations are in long-term decline in the face of digital payments, but parcels are expanding. Its PayPoint One retail terminal handles sales while checking and managing stock in nearly 30,000 outlets. The chief executive, Nicholas Wiles, admitted last month that consumer confidence and spending was not as strong as he would have liked, but claimed the business was well positioned to deliver further revenue growth in the second half. Meanwhile it generates strong cashflow to invest, buy back shares and grow the dividend.

For the half-year to September 30, net revenue was up from £79.8m to £84.6m. Underlying ebitda was £6.4m higher at £37.5m, and £5.1m of the increase came from higher underlying profitability. Diluted underlying earnings per share rose from 22.1p to 27.4p. Ecommerce business was the main driver, increasing 56.9% to £8m. This month Lloyds Banking Group became PayPoint’s main payments processor for its local cash banking network. Wiles sees that deal as key to the future. Jefferies analysts believe the group can make £91m of earnings before deductions this year and £100m the year after. That would take the price-earnings ratio below ten and underpin the current 2.3% dividend yield. But the share overhang is a short-term concern.

Advice: Hold



NB: Their dividend yield figure is wrong - at todays shareprice of 776.5p the dividend is 5.0%.

[stoopid] 06/12/2024 04:31

https://www.fool.co.uk/2024/09/09/is-this-the-best-uk-stock-to-buy-with-2000-in-september/2 months old but still worth a read.With the Obconnect contributions and higher revenue H2, PAY could come close to 100m EBITDA by 2025 year end.What price PAY with 100m EBITDA and less shares in circulation due to the buyback?

[davebowler] 02/12/2024 13:10

Panmure Liberum-
The H1 25 results were strong and we left our earnings estimates unchanged. We make six key points: 1) At H1 25, there was revenue growth of 6% and FD EPS increased 24%; 2) The FY 26 target of £100m EBITDA looks possible and the company has highlighted seven key building blocks for sustained growth; 3) A well-executed M&A strategy over the past four years has reshaped and repositioned the group into more exciting markets; 4) PayPoint is expanding its addressable universe and the growth business lines could be >80% of group net revenue in FY 26; 5) There is a large and underappreciated opportunity in Open Banking; and 6) FY 25 net debt/EBITDA of 1.2x and strong cash flow generation gives management cash allocation options, such as investing for organic growth, more dividends or buybacks. A CY 25 P/E of 11.2x and dividend yield of 4.8% are attractive. Key points Net revenue growth of 6.0% with notable strength at Parcels. Underlying FD EPS increased 24%. PayPoint has increased the number of sites and improved its offering. Value drivers 250m+ parcels achievable in 2-3 yrs Partnership with Lloyds & Royal Mail. Potential news on neobanking. Strong balance sheet gives options. What market misses £100m of EBITDA in FY26 is very achievable. Lloyds deal is transformational. 7% organic growth in H1 at L2S. Very high drop-through margin. Is there value? DCF suggests £11 per share. Div yield 4.8% and CY 25 PE 11.2x. £20m buyback provides technical support and we expect to see more. share price performance ignores distributions.

[masurenguy] 28/11/2024 14:40

XD today for the Q3 dividend of 9.7p payable on 20 December.

[mr.oz] 21/11/2024 19:57

Bought more.

Overweight, but relaxed (the portfolio, not the physique)

[doom4gloom] 21/11/2024 16:46

Exactly what i said last week. I sold 20% on precisely the premise you shouldnt expect any earnings surprises.
The buyback program is going to support the share price though, it will creep back up especially as it runs up to the ex-div date. Then expect the same again.

[stoopid] 21/11/2024 14:41

Knew i should have sold at 850/860 for a pullback. I was hoping that the results were good enough to maintain that share price when, atm, they clearly are not. The results were nothing special. Just maintaining guidance already issued.Nothing about Obconnect or how much it will affect the bottom line apart from saying it will materially affect second half Revenue/EBITDA.

[davebowler] 21/11/2024 09:34

PAnmure-
H1 25 net revenue growth of 6.0% and underlying Group FD EPS increased 24.0%, with strength in parcels and Multipay. Net debt increased from £67.5m at FY 24 to £86.8m, with £16.2m of investments. We maintain our estimate of 10% earnings growth in FY 25 with cost savings and Parcels growth. Looking at the 4 divisions: 1) At Payments and Banking, there is growth at MultiPay, and Open Banking, neobanking, and obconnect should drive EBITDA; 2) At Shopping, there was 10% growth in net revenues from Service fees; 3) At Parcels, net revenues increased 57% and management targets 250m+ parcels in 2-3 years; and 4) At Love2shop net revenue increased 7.4% and we see further opportunities for growth, notably the new In Comm partnership. PayPoint’s position on the high street differentiates it in the crowded payment space; a CY 25 P/E of 11.3x and ordinary yield of 4.7% are too cheap.

[masurenguy] 21/11/2024 08:28

Some profit taking this morning despite good interim results. If this wasn't already my 4th largest holding I would be tempted to add.

[masurenguy] 21/11/2024 07:22

Results for the half year ended 30 September 2024

Positive half year with continued progress towards £100m EBITDA by end of FY26

GROUP FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

* Underlying EBITDA1 of £37.5m (H1 FY24: £31.1m) increased by £6.4m (20.6%)

* Underlying profit before tax of £26.9m (H1 FY24: £21.8m) increased by £5.1m (23.4%)

* Net corporate debt of £86.8m increased by £19.3m from opening position of £67.5m

* Interim dividend of 19.4p per share, an increase of 2.1% vs the prior half year of 19.0p per share

Nick Wiles, Chief Executive of PayPoint Plc, said: “This has been a strong half year for PayPoint where we have delivered a positive financial performance and made further progress towards our medium-term target of delivering £100m underlying EBITDA by the end of FY26. The strategic investments made in Yodel and obconnect strengthen two core areas of our business, enhancing future growth and opportunities in parcels and Open Banking. The resilience of our businesses combined with the growing opportunities to deliver value-add solutions to our clients, continue to underline our confidence in building further momentum in our key growth building blocks. In addition, we are now putting greater focus on harnessing our enhanced platform through better connecting our increased capabilities and achieving greater collaboration across the business as a whole, opening up more revenue opportunities to the benefit of our clients and customers.

Over the half, consumer behaviour has improved from a slow start in April although remains subdued, with broader economic indicators demonstrating the continuing challenging environment for UK consumers. We continue to monitor this closely as we head into the important H2 period for a number of our more seasonal businesses. Our share buyback programme commenced on 1 July 20247, returning at least £20m over the next 12 months, which, combined with our growing dividend, will further enhance shareholder returns. Our core characteristics of strong earnings growth, cash flow generation and capital discipline, along with the continued growth across the Group, give the Board confidence in delivering further progress in the year and meeting expectations.”

[jeff h] 18/11/2024 23:00

Jefferies raises PayPoint price target to 928 (722) pence - 'buy'

[stoopid] 18/11/2024 14:17

U again today? Wow. Something in the results possibly leaked??I know Obconnect was a big win in NZ/Aus. Also, the Santander deal. Well, we will find out in the half year results......3 days to go...

[stoopid] 15/11/2024 21:30

I see Blackrock have upped their stake as of today??Looks like that's who has been buying...

[stoopid] 14/11/2024 18:12

Paypoint also have a new deal with Santander as well to deliver their open banking services. I'm hoping these two deals could be transformational. Who knows where Paypoint/Obconnect could end up. 100m EBITDA could be nothing if it takes off. Update on 21st Nov will be interesting. Get an idea what the deals are worth. Probably get bought out....

[masurenguy] 13/11/2024 07:25

Changes in FTSE UK Index Series
12 November 2024

Subject to court sanctioning the scheme of arrangement in relation to the cash acquisition of Balanced Commercial Property Trust (UK, constituent) by Starlight Bidco (non-constituent), Balanced Commercial Property Trust will be deleted from the FTSE 250 index. PayPoint will be added to the FTSE 250 index and deleted from the FTSE SmallCap index. All changes effective from 15 November.

[doom4gloom] 09/11/2024 17:04

I dont think that was morbid at all. I said the share price will be supported by the buybacks but i dont expect any earnings surprise.

As for why my sell order wouldn’t get filled… because it hasnt reached the order price muppet

[mr.oz] 09/11/2024 09:30

Quite a morbid post, doom4gloom?

[masurenguy] 09/11/2024 08:49

"I’ve put an order in to take some profits, will see if it gets filled."

Why would it not get filled ? Paypoint has had an average daily trading volume of circa 200,000 over the past week. It also has a main market listing and it is not an illiquid stock.

[doom4gloom] 08/11/2024 19:57

Yeah its normally strong in the lead up to dividend but the recent share price rise means the overall %age isnt going to be as high this time and maybe wont lend as much support as usual. I think its about the buybacks really, results might give a temporary boost but they wont make much difference and it will quite soon enough give up any post earnings rise. I’ve put an order in to take some profits, will see if it gets filled.

[masurenguy] 08/11/2024 15:45

Momentum continues with an ongoing rise in the shareprice despite a down day in the UK markets. The shareprice has now doubled over the past 18 months.

[sidam] 08/11/2024 13:02

I have taken the top off my holding (20%) as it was getting to be much too high a proportion of my portfolio. I intend to remain a long term holder with the balance.

[stoopid] 08/11/2024 10:05

It is, but someone is buying in ahead of results/update at the end of the month.They will have to report on the deal with obconnect and show figures for it.Could be a biggie and wouldn't matter if it was overbought or not, especially if they csn show 100m EBITDA is near.

[doom4gloom] 07/11/2024 08:25

Its quite overbought at the moment. I’m considering trimming a little to bank some profits. However i think the buybacks will continue to support the share price and given those figures suggest they are only a quarter done so far it might have a way to go yet.
Still it is quite over bought so i’m keeping a close eye on it for any sign of a pause upon which i’ll reduce position by 20%

[rik shaw] 07/11/2024 06:45

The current £20m buy back runs from 1/7/24 to no later than 30/6/25, and currently shares in circulation looks to be down around 760,000 compared with voting rights notice at the end of June.