Paragon Banking Share Discussion Threads

[future financier] 28/9/2010 08:47

2.875% over LIBOR on the W/H - strikes me as not too bad - although I had expected the W/H to be £300m. Maybe they are going to throw £100m of their own cash into the pot and then set up some sort of a Master Trust Fund like B&B had 'cos otherwise securitisation costs will be ,if not prohibitive, at least very high.

[the drewster] 28/9/2010 08:37

125 or thereabouts in August, to 180 (briefly) in September. You wouldn't need to be on the inside of many tips like that not to need a full time job!

[future financier] 28/9/2010 08:36

Sell off TD??? - but you were right about the "leaky ship"!

[the drewster] 28/9/2010 08:32

I take my hat off to your prediction FF ... but now watch the sell into the news (shameful how often this has happened on this share ... big price rises up to the news, then sell off into it - how it never gets investigated is beyond me).

[future financier] 27/9/2010 10:07

I stand by the targets I set in April - so I guess that the next "event" is their prelims in November. Maybe they will announce a resumption then?

[the drewster] 27/9/2010 08:52

and without (as yet) any public announcement that lending has resumed (which could potentially provide the price with a little boost).

Without the prospect of news, I'd be short at this level, however, I maintain a watching brief since the leaky ship is clearly letting insiders in on something.

[future financier] 24/9/2010 16:48

........ steadily moving towards my target of 175p for 30 September ........

[future financier] 15/9/2010 09:39

My guess is they are dipping their toes in the water and lending their own cash resources to demonstrate appetite and pricing to a warehouse provider that is trying to fleace them for the warehouse facility.

[the drewster] 10/9/2010 11:05

Small fry. They would announce resumption to the market officially, so this will be part of the ongoing finance in accordance with the terms of the securitisation vehicles already operating in my view.

[future financier] 10/9/2010 10:28

So PAG is back in business - quote from trade blog -

"A further little jewel I found was another lender that will immediately refinance a Bridge, (no six months to wait), so more innovation to cheer. The lender is Paragon Mortgages. I had thought this particular lender had stopped lending, which isn't the case, but again it's an exclusive via one packager – but an excellent addition to my choices all the same.

In both clients' cases the end results mean a Bridge will be used for speed, as well as offering funds before refurbishment. The excellent Auction Finance, and the newly re-branded Bridging Finance Solutions, are the lenders that have come up with the goods for me. It'll be a close run thing in these cases, but rest assured they are two lenders who appear at the top of my hit parade just now, so future business is assured...

And with Northern Rock being joined by my new little lending jewel Paragon Mortgages, the Bridging could be redeemed in three months or so, so there is some light at the end of the tunnel as far as current appetite, and innovation goes."

So if there is one broker offering PAG mortgages others must follow soon and PAG will be back!

[the drewster] 30/7/2010 08:10

Very soon? ... when market conditions allow is not necessarily soon at all.

[future financier] 27/7/2010 15:12

I think we have lift-off - PAG will announce a resumption of lending very soon and the shares will run up to 175p by the end of September.

[the drewster] 08/7/2010 12:24

My word, incredible that any of the directors here actually PAY for any shares ... heaven forbid ... wonder how many nil paids will be announced in the next visit to the trough?

[future financier] 05/7/2010 09:33

Wow - a director has shelled out his own cash to buy shares. That can only mean BUY BUY BUY!

[the drewster] 25/5/2010 12:07

As someone who believes in the integrity of the market, I suspect that people were piling in in anticipation of something much more concrete in the results.

As someone who thinks it is still a little too cloak and dagger, I suspect some well informed people got in during March, got the rumour mills working, then exited as they had generated plenty of strength to sell into.

I think FF, that this will remain dormant for the majority of the summer at least, and will be hit hard if the new Govt brings in any legislation or additional taxes that hit landlords.

Will keep a watching brief as maybe just before the next results are due it might be worth taking a short term position. Timing will be everything of course.

[future financier] 24/5/2010 14:31

The securitisation market is not the problem TD - its the absence of a (sensibly priced) warehouse line that is delaying the re-launch. All will be resolved in the summer.
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I hope!

[the drewster] 21/5/2010 11:50

135 to 160+ and now sold all the way back down again. Think the securitisation markets will be tougher than the text in the results implied and I think there were a few softly worded caveats too.

[future financier] 18/5/2010 10:53

Interesting ............. I refer to my posting of 21 April - the major factor that has created the surge in profit is the turnaround in consumer finance division. And the big change is in the cost of funding for the consumer finance business - no idea why.

They've also got £128m free cash - they've got their securitisation lined up, and are just waiting on getting a new "warehouse" overdraft facility - then they will be back in business!

[future financier] 18/5/2010 09:16

Paragon will never outsource underwriting! Unlike most they always even kept valuation in-house.

Not bad results - just trying to read the statement - but new initiatives have done incredibly well.

[the drewster] 18/5/2010 08:25

What about underwriters and other internal support staff, or will this be outsourced (dangerous, especially with the former)

[future financier] 14/5/2010 12:53

I hear rumours that PAG have started recruiting sales staff .......

[the drewster] 30/4/2010 14:51

I have heard similar rumours, so given the fall on news of the results seems to have been temporary, maybe you are right on this one.

Still be interesting to see where the money is coming from, at what rates, and therefore what margin they can make.

[future financier] 30/4/2010 11:32

Nah - just everybody getting worried about Greece - and just to remind everybody - PAG has no exposure to Greece!

Still happy with my predictions for a return to market!

[the drewster] 28/4/2010 19:39

News comes out and the price falls (had already started to fall the day before.
Looks well dodgy don't you think?

[future financier] 21/4/2010 15:43

Not exactly "normal" - whatever that means - their cost of funds for their secritisatons of £1.5 Bn had been around 10 bps over LIBOR - with just 2% equity in the deal. Methinks they will be paying closer to 300bps than 200 bps even with 5% equity in the deal!

But there is still the "elephant in the room" that is their unfortunate "top of the market" acquisition - TBMC. This is losing shed loads of dosh - yet they still have £10m of "goodwill" in the balance sheet that one day will have to be written off.